NFL

We’re about to get into the heat of the offseason, and with rookies on NFL rosters, prospect evaluation is about to become less important (until next offseason). However, before we send off the rookie evaluation process, I did want to throw out an idea I’ve been working on. Last offseason (before I joined FantasyGuru), I […]

Structural advantages were something we discussed last week, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts […]

In trying to predict future WR performance, I often estimate that “X” number of targets equates to “Y” level of WR fantasy. You might wonder where these estimates come from. They start with this graph: I plotted each WR’s targets against his seasonal rank in fantasy points per game among WRs, from 2002 to the […]

As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based […]

I’ve now done 11 volumes of “Future NFL Prospects” and it felt like time for some rankings. Apparently, this is rankings week for me, as I also released a dynasty rankings update earlier today. Through 44 players profiles, and projecting draft position for all of them (beyond Missouri WR Jalen Knox), there’s a lot least an […]

Considering all my rookie drafts (and two startups) are just about wrapping up, I figured it was time to do a dynasty rankings update. There’s not going to be analysis on this (in the article), as things haven’t changed for the veterans since free agency, but always feel free to reach out in the Chat if […]

Free agency has come and gone, and so has the Draft. Best Ball season is approaching full swing, and this early on is a great time of year to jump in with volume, as ADP hasn’t fully adjusted to the offseason moves. Here, I’m highlighting some best ball values as I currently see them in […]

The base of every dynasty league is the startup. Auction or snake, Superflex (SF) or 1QB, rookies included or not, the startup is by far the most important area of a dynasty league. A lot of teams’ futures will sink or swim in the coming years because of how the players are distributed initially, and it’s […]

For many years, I have been confident that RBs who score multiple (more than two) receiving TDs in one season will score less of them in the next season. This has been one of the surest examples of regression to the mean in fantasy football. The reasons essentially were that few runners scored more than […]

So far, I’ve looked at the basics of offensive identity in 2018 (plays from scrimmage; how many fantasy points (FP) those plays generated; how many of those plays were “wasted” from a fantasy perspective; and the relationships between wins and plays and FP) and the running game (including the correlations between running plays and winning, […]