Vlad’s FAAB Values – Week 17

We’re back from the break and are now in full category management mode in roto leagues. Look at where you need to gain and start to hack away at it however possible. Some of the studs we’ve missed for some time will slowly start to work their way back, starting with Carlos Correa this week and hopefully Giancarlo Stanton and Corey Kluber sometime next month. If for whatever reason someone in your league has dropped Kluber, do whatever is in your budget and capabilities to add him.

This week’s FAAB strategy should be fairly straightforward. We can safely add Giants’ bats (preferably the lefties) for the four-game Coors series, and there are also a certain group of hitters and pitchers we should focus our bidding on. You probably already know what to do if Nate Lowe, Dylan Cease or Brendan McKay are still available in your leagues. I’d also make sure that you snag Daniel Ponce de Leon where available while you still can. He made a lovely spot start for Wainwright (who may hit the IL with back spasms) and has a 32.5% strikeout rate and 1.99 ERA through just over 31 innings. Walks will always be a concern with Ponce, but he’s already one of their better pitchers and I’d have faith in him outperforming all but Flaherty from here on out. Make sure you secure the services of A.J. Pollock or Gregory Polanco for your squads where available. Pollock is already back, while Polanco had a slight setback in his recovery, which means you should be able to grab him for much cheaper. The Pirates are only 3.5 games back of the division lead so they’re not quite sellers. But if they do start to fade, you may see some of their talented offensive players get traded, making room for Polanco to play every day.

Finally, we need to make sure we are avoiding taking zeroes at all costs. If you’re an NFBC player where lineup switches are twice-weekly (Mondays, Fridays), make sure you have some multi-position eligible hitters in case someone in your starting lineup hits the IL earlier in the week. Having injured studs stashed is understandable, but having some roster flexibility with healthy guys is of the utmost importance.

 

TWO-START PITCHERS

 

TIER 1 – Locked in, all formats

Pitcher	Team	Throws	Opponents
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	L	at PHI, vs MIA
Walker Buehler	LAD	R	at PHI, vs MIA
Luis Castillo	CIN	R	at CHC, vs STL
Max Scherzer	WAS	R	at BAL, at ATL
Blake Snell	TBR	L	at NYY, v CHW
James Paxton	NYY	L	vs TBR, vs COL
Lucas Giolito	CHW	R	at KCR, at TBR
Brandon Woodruff	MLW	R	vs ATL, at ARI
Jack Flaherty	STL	R	vs PIT, at CIN
Zack Wheeler	NYM	R	at MIN, at SFG
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	R	vs CIN, vs SDP

 

TIER 2 – Locked in, most formats

Pitcher	Team	Throws	Opponents
C.C. Sabathia	NYY	L	vs TBR, vs COL
German Marquez	COL	R	vs SFG, at NYY
Lance Lynn	TEX	R	vs ARI, at HOU
Griffin Canning	LAA	R	vs HOU, at SEA
Andrew Heaney	LAA	L	vs HOU, at SEA
Joe Musgrove	PIT	R	at STL, vs PHI
Martin Perez	MIN	L	vs NYM, vs OAK
Jordan Yamamoto	MIA	R	vs SDP, at LAD
Zach Plesac	CLE	R	vs DET, vs KCR
Dylan Cease	CHW	R	at KCR, at TBR
Brad Peacock	HOU	R	at LAA, vs TEX

Not the safest group of starters, but at the very least, you’ll be running them out there in 15-team formats. C.C. Sabathia had a nice increase in strikeout percentage from April/May (19%) to June (27%) and a solid 3.74 FIP. Facing the Rays (a squad that struggles with southpaws) is a much better matchup than the one next weekend, at home against a bunch of lefty-bashing RHHs. German Marquez’ two-step is usable since that first start is against the woeful Giants, but it’s still Coors Field where he has a 5.73 ERA. Lance Lynn isn’t confirmed for two since the Rangers only play five this week (off on Monday and Thursday), but either way, he’s been so good that you’ll be starting him regardless. The best-looking two-start from this group is overachieving Indians’ rookie Zach Plesac so we have to add him where possible if needing wins and strikeouts. Those are two very winnable matchups.

 

TIER 3 – Situational based on your ratios or wins/Ks

Pitcher	Team	Throws	Opponents
Max Fried	ATL	L	at MLW, vs WAS
Anthony DeSclafani	CIN	R	at CHC, vs STL
Adam Plutko	CLE	R	vs DET, vs KCR
Michael Wacha	STL	R	vs PIT, at CIN
Rick Porcello	BOS	R	vs TOR, at BAL
Zach Eflin	PHI	R	vs LAD, at PIT
Alex Young	ARI	L	at TEX, vs MLW
Bryse Wilson	ATL	R	at MLW, vs WAS
Framber Valdez	HOU	L	at LAA, vs TEX
Vince Velasquez	PHI	R	vs LAD, at PIT
Hector Velazquez	BOS	R	vs TOR, at BAL

We’re picking nits here, as Rick Porcello could easily be included in the second Tier, but since he’s been so awful (16 ER last three starts), he’s a situational start. You know I’ve avoided Porcello in drafts this year like the plague, but if I did own him, I’d gamble starting him for these two starts. A second-round draft pick and decent prospect for the Dbacks, Alex Young threw six no-hit innings against the Rockies prior to the All-Star break. Clearly, most starts won’t be so fruitful, but he’s a much better pitcher than fellow rookie Taylor Clarke and deserves his current rotation spot. These two matchups are tough, but note, both the Rangers and Brewers’ best hitters are lefties. 21-year-old rookie Bryse Wilson has a very bright future, and I truly believe he will be the ace of this staff one day. Yep, a staff that also has Soroka. Do believe he’s a couple years away from that, and for now, we should expect some inconsistencies from start to start mixed in with some fireworks. At the bottom of the list, you’ll note three ‘ez’s’, Valdez, Velasquez and Velazquez. The Boston righty has the best matchups on paper, while the Houston rookie is the guy I’d most prefer to stream of these three. Very few will trust Valdez after his most recent blowup (4 ER, 3 BB in less than an inning at Texas), but he’s been outstanding as both starter and reliever outside of those past three starts. The Astros will likely use an opener for the first inning when they face the Angels on Tuesday.

 

TIER 4 – Tread carefully / avoid outright

Pitcher	Team	Throws	Opponents
Drew Pomeranz	SFG	L	at COL, vs NYM
Jeff Samardzija	SFG	R	at COL, vs NYM
Trent Thornton	TOR	R	at BOS, at DET
Sean Reid-Foley	TOR	R	at BOS, at DET
Tanner Anderson	OAK	R	vs SEA, at MIN
Adrian Houser	MLW	R	vs ATL, at ARI
Glenn Sparkman	KCR	R	vs CHW, at CLE
Jake Junis	KCR	R	vs CHW, at CLE
Daniel Norris	DET	L	at CLE, vs TOR
Ryan Carpenter	DET	L	at CLE, vs TOR

 

VIABLE SINGLE-STARTERS THIS WEEK

• Jason Vargas (LH/NYM) – at San Francisco
• Daniel Ponce de Leon (RH/STL) – vs Pittsburgh (if Wainwright IL)
• Eric Lauer (LH/SDP) – at Miami
• Logan Allen (LH/SDP) – at Miami
• Jhoulys Chacin (RH/MLW) – at Arizona

 

SCHEDULE NOTES

RENTALS

• Red Sox have one of the best schedules on paper of any team this season with four at home (TOR) and three on the road (BAL). These bats will start to hit their stride soon enough, and there’s no time better than the present, facing some very bad opposing SPs. Not very helpful from a FAAB perspective since most Boston bats are owned, though, Brock Holt can be streamed in 15’s, as he’s on the strong side of the platoon. Mitch Moreland likely won’t be back this week.
• Indians play seven at home this week – four against the Tigers and three with the Royals. No set rotation for the Tigers, but there’s a good chance they’ll face a bad lefty or two (Norris, Carpenter) and will certainly see Sparkman and Junis on the weekend. If Roberto Perez is available in any format, it’s a good week to play him. Same with Jake Bauers in 12’s and Jason Kipnis in 15’s. He won’t start in the outfield every game, but Greg Allen could be helpful if you’re chasing stolen bases. He could play more if Tyler Naquin isn’t at full strength.
• It’s one of the only weeks this season where Giants’ bats are worth renting, and that’s of course because they’re going to Coors Field. They are the only team playing eight games this week with four in Coors (includes a doubleheader). Most of these guys are available to pick up if you need a filler. Hopefully, some of you added Brandon Belt or Alex Dickerson a week ahead of time in anticipation of the small road trip. If you want to get sneaky in 15-team leagues, consider Brandon Crawford or Mike Yastrzemski with the Giants likely facing five RHPs this week. But best of all, snag Pablo Sandoval and his .299 ISO against right-handers for the week.

 

HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS

**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event

Catchers – Matt Wieters (SW/STL), Chris Herrmann (LH/OAK)

Corner Infielders – Pablo Sandoval (SW/SFG), Jeimer Candelario (SW/DET), Evan Longoria (RH/SFG)

Middle Infielders – Luis Urias (RH/SDP), Joey Wendle (LH/TBR), Brock Holt (LH/BOS)

Outfielders – Mike Yastrzemski (LH/SFG), Greg Allen (SW/CLE), Tyler O’Neill (RH/STL), Christin Stewart (LH/DET)

Wieters has value in 15’s until Molina is back. As previously mentioned, all Giants are simply one-week rentals for that series at Coors Field. Urias is the lone stash of the group, as it’s fair to assume he will be called up before the end of the month. If you have a drop and can stash someone on your bench for now, grab Urias immediately before you have to fight for him and are forced to spend up. Wendle is a player I’ve been recommending the last few weeks, but it’s going to start to get even more crowded in Tampa with Brandon Lowe, Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson back and Nate Lowe getting reps at 3B. O’Neill and Stewart were two of my preseason targets who can be second-half producers in HR/RBI, though, it will likely come at the expense of batting average. Stewart is wildly streaky and inconsistent but is already one of his team’s best hitters so he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS

*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues

Catchers – Chance Sisco (LH/BAL), Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR)

Corner Infielders – Nate Lowe (LH/TBR), Jake Bauers (LH/CLE), Brandon Belt (LH/SFG), Colin Moran (LH/PIT)

Middle Infielders – Andrelton Simmons (RH/LAA), Ryan McMahon (LH/COL), Leury Garcia (SW/CHW), Niko Goodrum (SW/DET)

Outfielders – Alex Dickerson (LH/SFG), A.J. Pollock (RH/LAD), Gregory Polanco (LH/PIT), Teoscar Hernandez (RH/TOR)