Happy Friday, Fantasy Guru Fam! Hopefully everyone had a great week.
If you have not seen it yet, our 2019 Offensive Line Breakdowns and Rankings is now live on the Draft Guide, and I strongly recommend that you go check it out. It is filled with plenty of information that can help you prep for your fantasy drafts and provide you with some clarity on certain players. Alright fold, now that I have made you aware of the newest piece of content on the Draft Guide, it’s that time of the week where we take a tour through the Mind of Marsal.
This week I want to discuss how to use ADP and overall player rankings to your advantage. You see, in most fantasy football drafts, people print out their favorite overall rankings and/or ADP rankings. This is what they are using to make their picks and at times we see them just check off the highest overall player off the rankings list and just take the very next player on the list. That is a big no-no and something I am strongly against. Jeff Mans talked about this on Sirius XM not too long ago, and it really got me think of how often I see this mistake being made in a lot of the drafts I am part of.
If you are doing this, stop! I am not saying that you should not be printing out overall and ADP rankings to take with you on draft day, but I am saying to use them as a guide and not as the ultimate decision maker.
WHAT IS ADP?
Average draft position, also known as ADP, can be defined as a report that generates a list of players by the average spot that they have been drafted over a range of multiple fantasy football drafts. This report provides us with numbers such as an overall average, highest pick drafted, lowest pick drafted, and number of times a player is drafted. These can be customized to specific league formats, such as PPR, standard, half-PPR, and two-QB. Some tools allow you to sort by specific dates so that you can see trends in ADP for any player. This is really helpful to see whether a player’s stock is rising or falling at any specific time.
OVERALL RANKINGS
Overall rankings consists of combining all quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, kickers, and defenses into one list, beginning with the best overall player for a specific format at the top. This differs from positional rankings because it is not broken down by position.
USING BOTH TO YOUR ADVANTAGE
As I mentioned above, using both ADP and overall rankings is something I encourage. However, neither of these two lists will determine what player I choose. There is a difference between using these rankings lists to prepare for your drafts and as a guide during the draft, and using them to make your pick. My main use for ADP rankings is to get an idea as to what rounds a player is generally going, which allows me to have a better idea as to when other owners could be thinking about taking a player.
For instance, I was bullish on Cooper Kupp last season and remain bullish on him this year. His current ADP is WR19 and generally coming off of the board in round five. What I have been doing is drafting him a round earlier than his ADP in leagues I am able to do so, considering roster construction and scoring settings. Some people call that reaching, I call it getting your guy. If you sit around and wait until it is “the right” time to take a player, you can miss out on a lot of the guys higher on your list. This goes for any player you are high on, if you like him and you have plenty of backup for your reasoning, who cares what his ADP is, go get him.
With that said, please do not misunderstand me, I am not saying to draft your favorite player who is being drafted in the sixth-seventh round in the first round either. Those first couple of round are usually straight forward and the only decision you really are making is what position you want. Once you move past those early rounds though, do not be afraid to get creative.
If I really am keen on a specific player, using ADP provides me with information as to when he is typically being draft. Therefore if I really want him, I know I have to make the move prior to his ADP. This goes for any player that fantasy owners are high on. Don’t wait until the round he is usually being drafted in if you really want this player. In fact, I have spoken to several high-stakes players about their approach, and a lot of the time they are not afraid of taking a player they really like way ahead of their ADP. This is something I try to implement in most of my drafts.
As far as going by overall rankings goes and why it can lead to mistakes. During your draft you may reach a point where the best player on the overall rankings is a tight end or a quarterback, and you already have that position on your roster. Yet, you decide to still take the best overall player because it is what the rankings say to do. This could lead to missing out on another really good fit for your roster at a different position.
For instance, taking a look at my dude Jeff Mans’ top 48 rankings. If I am on the clock and have three wide outs on my roster, but at the time of my pick and according to his overall rankings the top player available is Kenny Golladay, it makes no sense to take a wide out there because I already have three and really need to draft another position at that point. This is when the mistake can be made for those who will not adjust their strategy and draft straight off of a list. At this point, you will be missing out on some of the strong value at other positions that can be helpful to your team. Hopefully you are able to see where this can become an issue throughout your draft.
MY THOUGHTS
ADP and overall rankings are a great way to get an idea of the general consensus for player values, but neither of these should be the determining factor as to when a player should be drafted. This is why I strongly suggest that you use these two lists as a guide to give you perspective as to what to possibly expect during your draft.
By the time you are on the clock in your fantasy draft, hopefully you have already read plenty of articles, listened podcasts, done your research, and are prepared. Trust your research and the work you have put into prepping for your draft. If you feel strong about a player, take him. If you do not like a player, do not draft him. As long as you are comfortable with your decision, that’s all that matters. At the end of the day it is all about having fun and watching the players you like.
That’s it for this week’s Mind of Marsal. As always, you can find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal and/or catch me in the chat room with any questions.
