Welcome back for another installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Last week’s segment on Robby Anderson provided a ton of clarity in how I’ll be approaching Anderson in redraft, bestball, and dynasty leagues this summer.
That’s essentially the goal of this series. To try and illuminate some of the more puzzling players at current ADP and to try and shed some light whether or not we should be buying or selling at current cost.
We’ll start with taking an overall zoomed out look at the team situation — starting with the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on projected volume, role that the player will have in the offense, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s player is a divisive one among the draft community. Some are in the “never again” boat, while others see optimism with a sky-high limit given the way he finished the 2018 season. Let’s dive into the 2019 fantasy enigma that is Derrick Henry.
2019 Tennessee Titans
Last year’s Titans squad was held back by an injury-plagued season to Marcus Mariota.
| Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Points Scored | |
| Titans | 2,975 | 16 | 2,027 | 15 | 310 |
| Rank | 29th | 28th | 6th | 11th | 27th |
Mariota suffered a litany of injuries throughout the 2018 season. An elbow issue kept him out two games. A Week 17 neck stinger sidelined him in what ultimately cost Tennessee a chance at a playoff berth. While these injuries cost him entire games, Mariota played through plenty of other injuries that hampered is overall upside. He compensated by repeatedly throwing short (7.9 aDOT), leading to career lows in yards per game (180.6) while surrendering the highest sack percentage (11.3%) of his career. Injuries to Mariota are the best way to sum Tennessee’s passing shortcomings in 2018.
Despite the problems with the passing offense, former OC Matt LaFleur waited until the final month of the season to finally lean on Henry as his bellcow. The problem was that the Titans had just picked up Dion Lewis in free agency, signing him to a two-year, $19.8M contract ($5.8M guaranteed). The team was set on him being the 1A in this two-headed backfield committee. Prior to the month of December, Lewis out-snapped Henry in 10-of-11 games and out-touched him in 8-of-11. Per SharpFootballStats, Lewis’ success rate during this time span was … not ideal:
Image courtesy of SharpFootballStats.com
It wasn’t until the final five weeks where we saw Henry truly come to life. He out-snapped Lewis 162 to 147 and out-touched him 102 to 42. He gained a whopping 625 rushing yards during that time span on 97 carries (6.4 YPC) and reached the end zone eight times.
Henry’s Success Rate over Average during this final five-week timespan was remarkably improved over what Lewis had done earlier in the year:
Image courtesy of SharpFootballStats.com
Marked improvement on a per-carry level nearly everywhere. Can this carry into the 2019 season?
Let’s start with the front office changes that occurred in Tennessee. LaFleur left to coach the Packers and the Titans promoted from within with Arthur Smith taking the OC job (previously tight ends assistant coach). Smith is now entering his ninth season with the club (hired in 2011). He’s seen a plethora of coaches come in and out of the building and his offense will be centered around pulling ideas and concepts from everyone he’s worked with. Most recently, that could lead to a mashup of Mike Mularkey’s “smashmouth” offense combined with LaFleur’s 11-personnel heavy formations. It’s difficult to blame anyone with skepticism based on the previous results, but Smith has been around long enough to see what works and what doesn’t work. Without any prior play calling experience for us to analyze, this ultimately ends up as a wait-and-see year for Smith.
Offseason additions of Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown indicate a desire to maintain the 11-personnel formations (3WR sets) and let Humphries operate out of the slot. Mariota struggled throwing out of this formation last season, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt and sporting a 43% success rate. Hopefully improved personnel can improve these numbers. Another positive working in the Titans favor is getting back some health at the offensive line. Not only do they get back RT Jack Conklin (nine games played), the team added Rodger Saffold (PFF’s No. 9 guard from last year) and spent a third-round pick on guard Nate Davis. The offensive line should be a strength entering the year.
Derrick Henry’s 2019 Role
The Titans have already laid out their cards stating they want to keep running heavily with Derrick Henry. Last year’s squad trailed only Seattle in run play percentage (48.5%). Another year with an offense predicated on the run setting up the pass should be in the cards for Tennessee this season.
The question is, can Tennessee’s defense keep them in games long enough to keep a somewhat run-heavy gamescript viable? Additions to the defensive line in Cameron Wake and Jeffery Simmons (first round pick) will help, but Simmons may not be available for quite some time while he recovers from an ACL injury suffered in February. The secondary has solid pieces, but Vegas projects this to be an 8-8 team. Henry has a very realistic shot at being phased out of the game during obvious passing situations with the team leaning on Lewis in these situations (perhaps too heavily).
After posting 39 career receptions through his first three seasons, questions surrounding Henry’s receiving skills are warranted. His 18 targets last season were a career high. Not only do the Titans have to face divisional rivals Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck, they’ll have to keep pace in games against Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield. It’s not the easiest schedule for the defense to face and keeping the offense within +/- seven points for neutral gamescript could be a challenge. Tennessee also faces one of the more difficult schedules per rushing SOS, making Henry a tough overall buy for PPR leagues.
That ultimately will make Henry a gamescript-dependent fantasy play this season. He showed at the end of last year that he was able to take advantage of those positive gamescript situations with sublime efficiency. Henry ran for positive yardage on 91.1% of his carries and ran for five yards or more on 37.7%. Of the 47 backs with 100-plus carries last season, those rates ranked 17th and 12th, respectively. Henry’s size and momentum forces defenders to continuously push him backwards, even as he falls forward for gains. Until we see Tennessee throw to Henry with regularity, we’ll need to be selective when we roster Henry in our starting lineups to make sure we get the most out of him.
From a volume perspective, we’ve seen Henry climb from 176 carries in 2017 up to 215 in 2018. He saw a respective 48.1% and 57.0% of the running back carries during these two years. The coaching staff has already told us that that they plan to ride Henry heavily, but they’ll be “mindful of the carries that he’s getting”, per GM Jon Robinson. That seems like speaking out of both sides of your mouth at the same time, but with Lewis still in the mix, projecting Henry for 67.5% of the running back carries doesn’t seem outlandish. Based on historical data from Tennessee, that’s puts him in the 250-carry range. While the rushing numbers should rival some of the league’s best backs, the receiving work will provide Henry with one of the lowest weekly fantasy floors. His week-to-week consistency may improve from last year’s numbers, but he’ll still be a volatile fantasy asset bouncing from RB1 weeks to RB3, contingent on his red zone success.
Average Draft Position
Henry is currently being drafted at the Round 3/4 turn as the RB19 in PPR Redraft leagues. Unlike other backs being drafted around him, Henry has a very realistic shot at being scripted out of games. Mid-RB2 prices in a conventional league requiring you to set your lineup feels too steep for a player that volatile. While I’m a big fan of what the Titans did to solidify their offensive line, it’s ultimately going to end up on Mariota’s shoulders whether or not you invest in Henry. If you believe Mariota can get this offense on track and keep them competitive in games, Henry should be in your portfolio. Otherwise, I’d much rather target Marlon Mack, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Jacobs, or David Montgomery in that range.
In PPR bestball leagues like those at Fanball, Henry’s currently going as the 34th player off the board as RB17. It’s not a move I’d personally make, but I understand it a little more in bestball leagues. We don’t need to worry about the games that he gets scripted out in this scenario and can just ride the high-scoring weeks. If targeting Henry in this format, I’d wait until the fourth round as an RB2/RB3 candidate.
If playing in half-PPR or a standard league, by all means, go for Henry. He showed down the stretch that he’s capable of providing winning weeks when he can get into the end zone. He converted nine of the 22 carries he saw inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last season into touchdowns (40.9% success rate). He fared even better inside the 5-yard line, going 8-for-13 (61.5%). Henry should be in line for the most volume he’s ever seen in his career.
Looking at Henry through a dynasty lens, its clear owners were highly frustrated with him in the middle of last season:
Image courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com
Henry’s dynasty value has leveled out recently and current DLF ADP actually shows it may be a good time to buy. If I’m in a half-PPR or standard dynasty league, it wouldn’t hurt to ask the current owner of Henry to see if he’s available. His price should continue to rise after another solid season with increased volume in 2019.
It all comes down to format and league settings when it pertains to Henry. Mitigating risk in the first few rounds should be your primary target. Drafting a one-dimensional back in PPR leagues isn’t advisable. However, in half-PPR or standard, there’s nothing wrong with selecting Henry at current cost. Just be aware that you’ll have a fantasy asset that varies week-to-week.
