It seems every offseason there becomes more and more player movement in the NFL. Between free agency, trades, the draft, and players getting released, there’s an immense amount of fluctuation surrounding target-shares and how teams will distribute targets. The goal of this article is to evaluate what teams looked like in 2018, and what changes to expect in the upcoming season. Since there’s a wide variety of positions that can affect how touches are distributed, all aspects of rushing and/or receiving could be evaluated in a given piece. The NFL is a complicated beast, but breaking it down piece-by-piece in this fashion can help lighten the load of evaluation.
Here’s how this piece will go: First, we’ll take a look at how things shook out in 2018 focusing on targets, receptions and yards, and we’ll discuss any important factors involved that will be different in 2019. Then, we’ll take a look at the up-to-date depth chart for the 2019 season and make educated projections. Let’s dive in.
2018 MIAMI DOLPHINS
Photo courtesy of profootballreference.com
YIKES. 2018 was a year to forget for the Dolphins offense, and it was filled with bad QB play. While Ryan Tannehill came into the league with an intriguing skill set and exciting athleticism, multiple injuries have cratered the early part of his career. It doesn’t help that the WRs and TEs have left a lot to be desired in the early part of his career, but ultimately, it’s on Tannehill to rise above his situation and prove why he was a first-round selection. This, along with Adam Gase going nuts with weekly gameplans, torpedoed almost any potential fantasy value for the 2018 Dolphins passing attack. Brock Osweiler came in and did his best to hold the fort down for a stretch of games but ultimately, he’s Brock Osweiler. With him starting came stacked boxes, a lot of blitzing, and press coverage. There’s not much else to say, it was a disaster, and while 3,309 passing yards on the season looks ok, a lot of that came in games where the Dolphins were getting blown out.
2019 MIAMI DOLPHINS
Photo courtesy of rotoworld.com
Well, this may not be MUCH better, but it will be better than 2018, and it will absolutely be more exciting. Beyond the elite QBs in the NFL, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fan favorite. With his erratic and sometimes high-end fantasy numbers, his crazy beard, and awesome personality, Fitzpatrick has had a lot of success in the NFL. He has the same sequence of events happen seemingly everywhere he goes: Always starting strong, then fading toward the end, and his 2018 with the Buccaneers was no different. Fitzpatrick finished the season with 17 passing touchdowns in just 8 games, but also 12 interceptions. He finished with 2,366 passing yards, but also got benched on three different occasions. Fitzpatrick is the definition of inconsistent, and it’s really hard to tell what you’re going to get from him on a week-to-week basis.
Josh Rosen, a first-round selection by the Arizona Cardinals in 2018, has promise, but there are more questions than answers at this stage. Rosen came out of UCLA with a lot of excitement, but put up one of the worst rookie seasons of all-time. Rosen finished 2018 with 2,278 passing yards in 13 games, accompanied by 11 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Rosen spent most of his time dumping the ball off, as displayed by his 5.8 yards per attempt. Other QBs have had terrible rookie seasons and rebounded. Jared Goff looked like he didn’t belong out there in 2016, posting a very, very similar box score (in seven games Goff had a 54.6 completion percentage, five touchdowns, seven interceptions, and 5.3 yards per attempt), but the difference is Goff had Sean McVay to lean on, which obviously had positive effects on his development. The Cardinals not only drafted a QB in the first round of the 2019 draft, but they shipped Rosen off to Miami without much resistance. These are certainly bad indicators. While Kyler Murray has a lot of potential, if the Cardinals felt they had any future with Rosen, they likely wouldn’t have moved on so quickly.
Ultimately, the outlook for both of these QBs is messy, but could provide depth and structure in 2QB and SF formats. The negative drumbeat has continued through the summer for Rosen, as multiple reports have come out that Fitzpatrick has quickly beaten him for the starting job. It might be better for Rosen to take a year to sit and learn, anyway, but it’s still an all-around weird situation. The good news is the Dolphins should have a less dysfunctional season than they did in 2018, even if it results in fewer victories. If Mike Gesicki and/or DeVante Parker can emerge as competent receiving weapons, things aren’t nearly as gloomy as currently perceived. For fantasy purposes, these are final round selections, if that. If taking a risk on one of these two late, it’d certainly be Fitzpatrick based on what we know right now.
We know how this ends (for Fitzpatrick), but he’ll certainly spice things up for a bit!
