There are two suggestions I have for anyone looking to make their fantasy football leagues more entertaining. The first one would be to add a Superflex position. The addition of a second quarterback being flexed raises the importance of the position from something we can get by totally neglecting, to something that actually needs to be accounted for in roster construction.
The second recommendation is to switch to Individual Defensive Players (IDP) instead of Defense/Special Teams (DSTs). IDP leagues can be as simple or complicated as you like, but they add another element of strategy to make fantasy leagues more challenging. They also help you learn a lot more about the game as you start diving into defensive schemes, positional roles, etc.
I’ve realized over time that most people are much more willing to go the Superflex route, and very few are willing to put in the time and effort for IDP. That means we need to provide some DST analysis for those that continue down this path.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Incorporating DSTs in your fantasy leagues is simply adding randomness and variance. Scoring for these units can provide massive swings on a week-to-week basis, but they’re generally unstable and very close to random.
The best rosters of defensive players rarely turn out to be the best fantasy options. We also rarely project who the top fantasy units will be in the upcoming season correctly. Just take a look at last year’s highest drafted DST squads sorted by ADP:
| Team | 2018 ADP | 2018 Fantasy Finish |
| Jacksonville Jaguars DST | 1 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Rams DST | 2 | 2 |
| Minnesota Vikings DST | 3 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles DST | 4 | 23 |
| Los Angeles Chargers DST | 5 | 15 |
Just one squad drafted in the top-5 finished in the top-5 in fantasy scoring. So many things can alter a defense that it’s best to take on the position from a week-to-week perspective. Targeting a few specific key things can help lead to better decision making as we stream DSTs based on matchups.
We can mitigate the randomness of DST scoring somewhat by focusing on the following key factors.
Passing Volume — More drop backs mean more opportunities for quarterbacks to make mistakes. We can target specific games that are projected for significant passing volume by utilizing Vegas spreads. A team that’s a major underdog should spend a significant amount of time facing negative gamescript. Negative gamescript means that the team will be playing from behind, implying they most likely will be forced to pass the ball to try and pick up yardage and points in a hurry to catch up. Rostering the defense going against that underdog is our target. This defense will face a quarterback dropping back often, providing opportunities for the defense to pressure the quarterback into sacks and or turnovers. These are the key ingredients and the more predictable points of scoring for us to focus on.
Pass Rush — In order to accumulate sacks, we need to roster a defense that has a high chance of accumulating them. Focusing on things like pressure rate and quarterback hurries — not just sacks — can help us select strong defensive units. In the same light, looking at offensive lines that allow the most pressures and quarterback sacks can help us find defenses worth rostering. The Texans offensive line was a wreck last season. They allowed the most quarterback hits (126) and quarterback sacks (62). By streaming defenses against them, you were able to create a constant source of quality fantasy points at one of the most random positions. Don’t be afraid to dive beyond the surface numbers and look at defensive end versus offensive tackles numbers early in the year. Sometimes tackles can get into a slump and they can become a repeated target of ours week-after-week. We can also pay attention to how long the quarterback holds the ball before releasing. Quarterbacks slow in this department generally need additional time to progress through their reads before throwing. This is where selecting defenses with speedy edge rushers can help us. Forcing the quarterback to make poor decisions under duress is our end game here.
Turnover Potential — The third key factor to pay attention to is how likely a turnover is to occur. Does the quarterback have a high interception rate? I like to compare career interception rates versus the current year and see if a quarterback in a new system is struggling adjusting. I also cross-reference this with how well the defense is capitalizing on turnovers and forcing them. The 49ers had just two interceptions all of last year. Their lack of talent in the secondary made them an easy fade as they were unable to take advantage of pressure up front and force turnovers. Another factor to look at is fumble rate. Rookie running backs can be a secondary target (Miles Sanders this year), but we’re primarily looking at quarterbacks that fumble the ball. Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott all had 12 fumbles last year. Once the ball hits the turf, it can be anyone’s guess who winds up on top recovering it. Defenses capable of creating the sack, forcing the fumble, and recording the fumble can change a fantasy matchup in an instant. Add in a potential return for a touchdown and odds are you have a top-three fantasy DST unit for the week.
Those are the three key factors that have helped me become a successful fantasy player when trying to select the correct defense to use in a given week. Prioritizing passing volume, pass rush, and turnover potential can help provide a skeleton key to selecting the right defensive units. Keep in mind that this can change on a weekly basis. You should be playing the matchups and remain aggressive on the waiver wire. Select DST units that check all three of these boxes and you’ll be putting yourself in a plus situation to avoid the weekly variance that comes with defensive scoring.
