As we enjoy a couple days of rest from baseball and gather strength for the second half, thought it’d be worthwhile to review a surprisingly fun position that has long been abysmal.
Catchers have been anything but a trouble spot for fantasy owners this season. There have been a multitude of viable options for two-catcher leagues and a few nice surprises. Looking back to this time last season, at the All-Star break, Gary Sanchez was the only backstop with 14 or more homers. This season, there are already six with 14 or more homers – three predictable ones (Sanchez 24, Yasmani Grandal 19, Willson Contreras 18) and three virtually out of nowhere (Roberto Perez 16, Christian Vazquez and Omar Narvaez 14). Vazquez and Narvaez have both had incredibly productive half-seasons, as both are still hitting above .290.
Overachievers
Narvaez’ consistency as a contact hitter shouldn’t really be much of a surprise. He averaged .275 over three part-time seasons between 2015-2017, always flashing nice patience at the plate (low double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate under 20 percent). Vazquez was virtually undrafted outside of Round-30 selections in 15-team leagues and was a nice buy-low based upon a big drop from 2017 (.290 AVG) to 2018 (.207 in a half-season of at-bats). Vazquez had never flashed much power in the minors so this year’s breakout in that department has been a pleasant surprise. It’s doubtful Narvaez or Vazquez reach the 30-HR plateau this season, but nevertheless, we’ll be looking back at some fantastic 5×5 roto stat lines even if they finish even a little under their current paces.
Mitch Garver has about 100 fewer plate appearances than the field after spending time on the IL, and would likely be close to 20 homers if he’d played more games in the first half (currently at 13). Garver has been a valuable hitter to baseball’s best offense so far, getting opportunities to hit in two very important spots (leadoff and number-three hitter). Garver did have impressive power numbers in the minors, most recently crushing 17 dingers in 88 games at Triple-A. His .375 on-base is particularly impressive, but his current .295 average could very well see a tumble in the upcoming months. That average has been blessed by a .340 BABIP, and his xBA to date (.243) points to some regression in the category. But a 25-HR, 75-RBI, .275 season will look good come year’s end and easily make him a top-five catcher selected among the top-150 overall next spring.
James McCann is another surprise performer, specifically as a contributor to batting average, as he currently sports a .316 mark to go with an impressive .371 OBP. McCann has enjoyed some time as the White Sox’ cleanup man. Though he slowed down from a clearly regressing .349 over the first two months, a .280 average over the last two weeks is nothing to sneeze at and certainly helpful to fantasy owners. McCann was a once-in-a-while DFS-only play when a lefty was on the mound last year and continues to hit them well (.414 wOBA, .242 ISO). Just another healthy contributor at a position who has certainly surprised us this season.
There’s a whole lot of us who stepped off the Travis d’Arnaud train, saying “never again” after years of injuries and falling short of tremendous expectations. After all, d’Arnaud was once the Mets’ backstop of the future and was supposed to hit 20 with 80, year after year. He’s found new life in Florida, though his .225 may put a bit of a damper on the overall picture. He did hit .275 with 5 HR in June, and halfway through July, d’Arnaud is 6-for-16 (.375). d’Arnaud has outplayed fellow backstop Mike Zunino (then again, they all do) and has had the pleasure of leading off for a team that is loaded with talent. He’s someone I’d feel comfortable streaming as my C2 over these next couple months.
Others who have impressed include the always-reliable Kurt Suzuki, some power from old-man Robinson Chirinos, surprising average (.274) from K-king Jorge Alfaro and 10 homers already from Carson Kelly, a man known for virtually no power and only for his defensive prowess. But Kelly has been dynamite against left-handed pitching – not only does his .494 wOBA rank best among catchers, but it’s also one of the highest marks in the entire league. He takes free passes at a 14.5% clip against them and seems to really have lefties figured out.
Underachievers
Danny Jansen has certainly stepped up his game after about a half-season of disappointment. Jansen was the consensus #8 catcher off draft boards this past spring with an ADP right around the end of the top 200. Any other team would have long optioned him to Triple-A to ‘figure things out’ but not the Blue Jays. They stuck with him when he was in the doldrums…not just hitting poorly, but literally not hitting at all, as his average hung wayyy below the Mendoza Line. He hit .162 through the first two months, contributing just 10 RBI, then bumped it up to .246 in June where he added 10 more RBI in that month alone. In July, he’s been a whole new man, smashing four homers in just seven games and hitting .370. Jansen has been hitting the ball much harder this month – an impressive 59 percent hard-hit rate compared to 40 percent over the three previous months. We’ll likely see more of July Jansen then the guy in the first half, but like all hitters, expect some slumps along the way. Most impressive is the fact he hasn’t struck out in his last 45 plate appearances, dating all the way back to June 21. He’s a top 10 backstop going forward.
Many avoided Buster Posey in drafts altogether, simply knowing he was clearly on the decline as a major league hitter. He still came in as the seventh overall backstop with a 143 ADP so evidently there were some folks still clinging on to old times or believed he could at least contribute in batting average. But it’s been a rough 3.5 months for him – just three dingers on the season after hitting just five in all of 2018. He’s simply been a drain to a position where literally a dozen guys picked up in FAAB have outperformed him. A home run per month simply won’t cut it in this era of home runs, so we certainly can’t blame some of the folks who have dropped him over the past couple weeks.
It’s been a below-average season so far for Yadier Molina as well (the #5 catcher via spring ADP). He spent some time on the IL and has just four homers, but he’s at least chipped in with four stolen bases to not make him a total bust. However, in comparison to the Perez, Vazquez and Narvaez’ of the world, this too feels like a wasted pick for such a high (top-150) ADP. It’s also been a very unexciting season for J.T. Realmuto, his first in Philly. A 10 HR – 42 RBI – 55 R – 4 SB – .273 line honestly isn’t all that bad, but considering the fact 15-team drafters paid a late-third round, early fourth-round selection on him, those folks can’t be happy with what would be considered mediocrity for him (with the exception of the run total). Realmuto should get more comfortable in the thick of summer, and I’d expect a hot streak hitting in the month of August.
Projecting ROS
So Jansen, d’Arnaud and Suzuki are three guys I’m bullish on for the rest of the season, but who else can be helpful to us in the second half? The Orioles have had quite the stout power combo with Pedro Severino crushing lefties and Chance Sisco mashing them righties for the past month. I’m very bullish on Sisco the rest of this season and believe he’ll be seeing the bulk of starts behind the plate, even occasionally against southpaws as Severino cools off from a red-hot first half.
Let’s end this with throwing these guys in tiered buckets for the remainder of the season.
TIER 1
- Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY)
- Willson Contreras (RH/CHC)
- Yasmani Grandal (SW/MLW)
- Mitch Garver (RH/MIN)
- J.T. Realmuto (RH/PHI)
Sanchez is on another stratosphere with his power prowess, as he’s the only one from this bunch capable of reaching that 40-homer plateau, but his batting average keeps him from being in his own tier, thus he’s still grouped with these guys. Expect much of the same from Contreras and Grandal. A Sanchez injury and you’ll likely see Contreras and Grandal fighting it out for best fantasy asset at the catcher position this season. Realmuto belongs in the group, and in this second half, you’ll see why. Expect to see that .273 average up closer to .290 by the end of the season.
TIER 2
- Omar Narvaez (LH/SEA)
- Danny Jansen (RH/TOR)
- Wilson Ramos (RH/NYM)
- Chance Sisco (LH/BAL)
- Christian Vazquez (RH/BOS)
- James McCann (RH/CHW)
- Francisco Mejia (SW/SDP)
Nine out of 10 fantasy analysts’ tier lists probably wouldn’t have Sisco and Mejia amongst their second tier, and I’m that 10th. I won’t let you down here so long as their respective managers don’t let them down by not playing them as much as they should be played. Mejia should be one of the league’s best offensive catchers over the next half-decade, and the charge starts this July, so let’s hope Hedges doesn’t sprinkle in too many starts going forward. Ramos has stayed under the radar for the most part and is technically one of the best ‘buy-lows’ you’ll find at this position.
TIER 3
- Roberto Perez (RH/CLE)
- Robinson Chirinos (RH/HOU)
- Kurt Suzuki (RH/WAS)
- Carson Kelly (RH/ARI)
- Jorge Alfaro (RH/MIA)
- Josh Phegley (RH/OAK)
- Jason Castro (LH/MIN)
- Tom Murphy (RH/SEA)
- Brian McCann (LH/ATL)
- Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR)
- Will Smith (RH/LAD)
- Yadier Molina (RH/STL)
Perez is listed with this tier and not the one above because I do believe he’s been riding a luck cloud and it’s going to air out soon enough. Yes, he’s been mashing lefty pitchers with aplomb, but I’d project maybe 10 more homers from here on out. Chirinos is usually a batting average drain, and that will continue to be the case these final 2.5 months. Phegley has been fantastic but may start to lose more starts to my boy Herrmann (#FreeHerrmann), who might have a very nice second half now that he’s off the IL. You’d think that with full-time at-bats, a resurgent McCann (Brian, that is) would have even better numbers. But I believe his success this year actually comes from the fact he doesn’t play every day. He is 35, and getting those days of rest help him recharge to make the most of his time up at the plate.
TIER 4
- Chris Herrmann (LH/OAK)
- Mike Zunino (RH/TBR)
- Tyler Flowers (RH/ATL)
- Elias Diaz (RH/PIT)
- Austin Barnes (RH/LAD)
- Tucker Barnhart (SW/CIN)
- Yan Gomes (RH/WAS)
- Jonathan Lucroy (RH/LAA)
- Buster Posey (RH/SFG)
- Austin Hedges (RH/SDP)
- Tony Wolters (LH/COL)
- Matt Wieters (SW/STL)
- Victor Caratini (SW/CHC)
- Curt Casali (RH/CIN)
The surprise on here may be Barnes, and that’s simply because I feel strongly about Will Smith being better than him in every which way (offensively and as a framer) and that Smith becomes the Dodgers’ primary backstop. Wolters has outplayed Chris Iannetta all season, and the average is nice, but he’s the weakest-hitting catcher of the group. Wieters is a nice backup who may actually start to see a more even share of playing time with Molina if he continues to hit as he has in July. Caratini would be a starter on half the teams in the league; he has a gorgeous swing and some 20-HR potential with a full-time gig.
