Structural advantages were something we discussed a while ago, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts and ideas that can work, but having a strong grasp of how the wheel is turning can create awareness for why things are working the way they are.
More roster evaluation! As soon as I wrote the first roster-based evaluation piece, it instantly became clear this was a great way to frame an article. While I have my opinions on roster building, this type of thought practice creates a scenario where I’m “telling” my option, but also shows just how versatile dynasty strategy can be. There are many ways to building a winning dynasty roster, and through tons of experience playing, I’ve learned a lot of these principles. If I learned from other league-mates and seeing strategies “pass” or “fail” over multiple years, why not bring Guru Subs along for the ride with that type of thought process evolution?
We now have a few rosters in the hopper for future weeks (which is great!). We’ll be running through most, if not all in the future, but for this week, we’re going to evaluate Joe Breal’s roster. Another fun one, with some major differences from the one we took a look at last week.
If you have ideas for this article or want your roster evaluated in a future piece, shoot me an email: rclay636@gmail.com (If wanting a roster evaluation, along with sending the full roster, post league setup, roster size and scoring settings)
ROSTER EVALUATION PRACTICE
- Format: Bestball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 30 (+3 Taxi Squad)
- Starting Lineup Spots: 10
- QB – 1
- RB – 2-4
- WR – 2-5
- TE – 1-3
- DEF – 1
- D – 1
- Scoring – PPR, TE Premium
Joe Breal’s Roster
QB:
- Jared Goff
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Marcus Mariota
- Andy Dalton
RB:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Devonta Freeman
- Derrius Guice
- Ronald Jones
- Kalen Ballage
- Ito Smith
- Devine Ozigbo
- Wayne Gallman
- Malcolm Brown
- Rodney Anderson
- John Kelly
WR:
- Amari Cooper
- Chris Godwin
- Corey Davis
- Marvin Jones
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- N’Keal Harry
- Josh Gordon
- Trey Quinn
- Gary Jennings
- Preston Williams
TE:
- Zack Ertz
- Hunter Henry
- Ian Thomas
- Shaheen
- Uzomah
- Warring
Extra Notes: Three 2020 First Rounds Picks
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate in a week-to-week setting, over 16 weeks?
Critique: In terms of this roster, it’s probably best to just run through the positions to go from there. There’s a lot to talk about, so let’s get into it!
QBs are in a good spot. Unlike a lot of the fantasy community, I’m incredibly confident in Jared Goff for both the near and distant future. Goff is connected to arguably the best young head coach in the NFL (Sean McVay), has amazing weapons around him, and has shown the last two years he can be a top fantasy QB. Goff is 24 years old, has NFL draft pedigree on his side, and to project anything other than for him to play for AT LEAST a decade at this stage would be silly. Sure, he may never reach elite fantasy upside, but a Philip Rivers-like career is probably the floor. Behind him are a lot of low-end QBs on their own, but between Jimmy Garoppollo, Andy Dalton and Marcus Martiota, there should be a solid floor behind Goff for weekly starters. All of these QBs have shown upside at one time or another, and all are relatively young (Dalton is 31, but he should have a few more years left in him as a starter, even if it isn’t with the Bengals). This position is a strength despite no elite options.
If Christian McCaffrey is on a roster, then RB isn’t a weakness, but there are likely going to be some tense times during the season if/when injuries strike. Devonta Freeman is on his last legs as a fantasy contributor, though for this time, I like him as a patchwork RB2. Adding Ito Smith as depth is a good way to solidify fantasy points for a full season. While neither is likely to compete for a top-end fantasy finish, together, they can provide RB2 numbers. Derrius Guice and Ronald Jones are a great, young combination with NFL draft pedigree. While both have taken perception stock drops over the last year, their historical success rates (based on draft round) should create a scenario where AT LEAST one ends up panning out. Both are in depth charts that should allow plenty of opportunity for 2019. Considering this, the top two spots in the lineup for 2019 should be all set, even with an injury, but then things fall off a cliff quickly. Kalen Ballage is a nice upside play. His amazing athletic profile and some exciting plays in 2018 make him a reasonable upside play, especially considering the depth chart he’s competing for touches with (though Drake should be the lead guy). Rodney Anderson is a fun long-term piece, but nobody else excites me with that depth, and that would be a major emphasis for me in trades and future rookie drafts. The players replacing them don’t even need to be RBs; they can be any position. The lack of NFL draft pedigree in this group is not going to yield good results.
Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones and N’Keal Harry should be able to figure things out for 2019, but kind of like RB, WRs are light in depth. Marquez Valdez-Scantling certainly has upside in the Packers offense, but it’s hard to rely on him at this juncture. The same goes for the rest of this crew. Cooper and Davis (yes, yes he will be) will be a stable presence for this group, and Godwin should be a solid weekly starter as well, but by no means will this be a strength. This is totally acceptable though, as there are rarely enough assets to go around to make every position strong every season. This group is built to last and has really strong upside with the first five WRs. I’d like a few more late round guys with draft pedigree. John Ross, DeVante Parker and Josh Doctson come to mind, but overall, this should be fine. Harry is going to be tough to value from a 2019 perspective, but obviously (if you’ve read any of my work this year), I expect him to eventually emerge as a top fantasy asset. This group might be a year away from its ceiling, but considering the rest of the roster, it’s a nice set of contributors.
If I were a chef, I’d kiss my fingers at these TEs. Not only do they have an elite option for the upcoming season in Zach Ertz, but there’s a fantastic second option in Hunter Henry, who’s primed for a nice comeback season in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Beyond that, there are two nice longshot bets in Ian Thomas and Adam Shaheen, who aren’t exciting to look at now, but in a TE premium league, could be getting starter snaps if their oft-injured starters (Greg Olsen and Trey Burton) can’t make it through the season. While TE premium shouldn’t totally shift a strategy, having a strong set of TEs can set a strong team ahead. Add in rookie Kahale Warring, a third-round selection by the Houston Texans in 2019, and there’s a lot of upside and current-year production to go around in this group. I love it.
Arguably the most important thing about this team, beyond McCaffrey, is the note at the very end. THREE future firsts! With this team? Phew. This does explain the lack of depth surrounding RB and WR, and I wouldn’t be totally against trading one of those firsts to give a boost to the current year, but ultimately, this team is built very well. The future firsts will pay serious dividends next offseason and could be used as major trade chips during rookie draft time. One of my favorite strategies to sustain leverage in rookie drafts year-to-year is, once I get an extra first, always try to roll one over to the next year when that rookie draft comes along. So for example, with the three 2020 first rounders, when the time comes, try to trade one of those picks for a 2021 first.
Overall Grade: A-
This is a strong team with a lot of young assets. Beyond having optimal depth behind the studs, there’s not much to critique. Again, for 2019, this team could run into some serious depth issues at RB and WR, but the good news is there’s a strong infrastructure, and if desperate times hit, there are assets to use to still make a run.
