Happy Tuesday my Fantasy Guru fam! Time is flying, we are already in our second week of July, less than a month away from the first preseason game, and 58 days away from the NFL kick off. Fantasy drafts have started for some and are approaching for others, so make sure you are up to speed, ready to crush your draft.
It’s that time of the week where we find ourselves in a draft with a decision to make. Remember, each week I will walk you through a scenario you may be faced with on draft day and present multiple options, then choosing the way I would go about it. There will also be weeks where I just talk about one player, in a specific format and round, and elaborate on why that player will likely make my roster at that time.
This week we are picking up right where we left off in last week’s draft. After four rounds of drafting we have three receivers and a running back heading into the fifth round. This is a tough round because there are still a lot of players I am very interested in this season, one being a tight end I am high on, but this is typically not a round I like to take this position in.
The format remains the same, a 12-team PPR league and the roster consists of 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-Flex, 1-Defense, and 1-Kicker. Here is the draft board.
| PICK | PLAYER | POS | PICK | PLAYER | POS | PICK | PLAYER | POS | PICK | PLAYER | POS | PICK | PLAYER | POS |
| 1.01 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 2.12 | T.Y. Hilton | WR | 3.01 | Zach Ertz | TE | 4.12 | Phillip Lindsay | RB | 5.01 | Tyreek Hill | WR |
| 1.02 | Alvin Kamara | RB | 2.11 | Adam Thielen | WR | 3.02 | Keenan Allen | WR | 4.11 | David Montgomery | RB | 5.02 | Sony Michel | RB |
| 1.03 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 2.1 | Damien Williams | RB | 3.03 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4.10 | Chris Godwin | WR | 5.03 | Calvin Ridley | WR |
| 1.04 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 2.09 | Mike Evans | WR | 3.04 | Leonard Fournette | RB | 4.09 | Andrew Luck | QB | 5.04 | Tyler Lockett | WR |
| 1.05 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2.08 | Dalvin Cook | RB | 3.05 | Devonta Freeman | RB | 4.08 | Robert Woods | WR | 5.05 | Deshaun Watson | QB |
| 1.06 | Melvin Gordon | RB | 2.07 | Antonio Brown | WR | 3.06 | Marlon Mack | RB | 4.07 | Brandin Cooks | WR | 5.06 | Chris Carson | RB |
| 1.07 | Davante Adams | WR | 2.06 | Travis Kelce | TE | 3.07 | Aaron Jones | RB | 4.06 | Mark Ingram | RB | 5.07 | Mike Williams | WR |
| 1.08 | Julio Jones | WR | 2.05 | Nick Chubb | RB | 3.08 | A.J Green | WR | 4.05 | Cooper Kupp | WR | 5.08 | ON THE CLOCK | |
| 1.09 | David Johnson | RB | 2.04 | Todd Gurley | RB | 3.09 | Amari Cooper | WR | 4.04 | Julian Edelman | WR | 5.09 | ||
| 1.10 | LeVeon Bell | RB | 2.03 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 3.10 | Georger Kittle | TE | 4.03 | Josh Jacobs | RB | 5.10 | ||
| 1.11 | Michael Thomas | WR | 2.02 | Joe Mixon | RB | 3.11 | Derrick Henry | RB | 4.02 | Kenny Golladay | WR | 5.11 | ||
| 1.12 | James Conner | RB | 2.01 | Odell Beckham Jr | WR | 3.12 | Steffon Diggs | WR | 4.01 | Kerryon Johnson | RB | 5.12 |
YOU’RE ON THE CLOCK!
TE Evan Engram, Giants – Engram is the top tight end on my board at this pick and normally I am not really considering a tight end in this round, but I am very bullish on him and think he is in for a strong season. Last year he played just 11 games and did not quite live up to expectations for fantasy owners. That said, his catch rate increased by 15 percent, he averaged more yards per game than he did as a rookie, and also averaged more yards per reception. The fact that Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer with the team is a positive for Engram. Over a 26 game sample, Engram and Beckham were both on the field in 11 games, while Engram was on the field in 15 games without him. When Beckham was on the field, Engram averaged 3.5 receptions, 5.6 targets, 37.6 receiving yards, and 8.9 fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 4.7 receptions, 7.8 targets, 59.1 receiving yards, and 13.3 fantasy points per game, with Beckham off the field. Beckham accounted for 124 targets last season and a high percentage of those could possibly go to Engram. In addition, Engram quickly became a red zone threat for this offense since entering the league. He has caught 61 percent of his red zone targets and has scored in 82 percent of his red zone receptions. In my opinion, there is top two upside here at tight end and locking that up right now is intriguing.
RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Last year Drake let a lot of fantasy owners down and it was not necessarily his fault. For whatever reason, Coach Adam Gase decided to limit Drake’s touches (120 rush attempts and 66 targets), which really capped his upside and production. With that said, it is worth pointing out that when Drake did get an opportunity, he was efficient. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry, had an 80 percent catch rate, and averaged 1.2 fantasy points per touch. That final stat was impressive because that was more than Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, and Christian McCaffrey averaged per touch. We saw what Drake is capable of toward the end of the 2017 season. In the final five games of that season, he averaged 18.2 rush attempts and 88.8 rushing yards per game, while also averaging 4.88 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns. Not to mention, he caught 17 passes for 150 yards during that stretch. There is no denying that Drake is a very capable back, offering nice upside, and if given the opportunity, he could produce some strong numbers. Now that Adam Gase is no longer Miami’s coach, there is a chance that Drake gets to be the workhorse on this offense.
RB Tarik Cohen, Bears – Cohen is expected to resume a similar role than the one he had last season, as a pass catcher out of the backfield, despite the team drafting of David Montgomery in this year’s draft. Cohen is a premier pass catching running back in this league and in PPR formats having him as my RB2 is something I am very comfortable with. Not only does he offer a strong floor, but he also has plenty of upside. Last year he was sixth among running backs in targets with 87 and over the last two seasons he has been targeted 162 times, catching 124 passes. In addition to his role in the passing game, it is worth noting that Cohen averaged 6.2 rush attempts per game and that workload will likely remain the same as well. Cohen finished RB11 in 2017 and there have already been 25 running backs take off of the board in this round, so this seems to be like great value assuming he produces similar numbers than what he did last season, and that is not so farfetched. There is plenty to like about him this year, including his current price.
RB James White, Patriots – White has been my guy for several years now, as I have always been a fan of his skill set. We all know how difficult it is to trust any running back in the New England backfield because of how unpredictable Coach Bill Belichick is on a weekly basis. This generally leads to inconsistency in fantasy production and some frustrating weekends. That being said, White has had a solidified role in the passing game for some time now and it is obvious that this coaching staff trusts him, considering how often he is featured in some of their biggest games, including Super Bowls. Since 2015 he has finished with at least 54 targets, 40 catches, 400 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns each season. Now that Rob Gronkowski is retired, there is a high possibility that White’s role in the passing game could improve from an already strong role. He displayed the type of upside he offers last year by finishing RB10 in PPR formats.
MY CHOICE
My roster consists of three receivers and one running back at this point. When comparing the running backs to the wide outs left on the board at the time of the pick and considering my roster, I knew I would not be picking a receiver with this pick. That said, there were multiple interesting running backs and also a tight end I really, really like. Needless to say, this was a very difficult decision for me to make because, as much as I like all of these players, chances are none of them will land to me in the following round, with the exception of possibly Engram. Therefore, I had to make this pick count.
After some thought, I decided to skip on Engram in this spot and go with a running back. It took me some time, but I ultimately decided to go with Drake with this pick. I really am a fan of White and Cohen, but considering the situation of their backfield, neither of them are in a position to be the every down back. The same cannot be said about Drake who does have a shot at being a workhorse and as I pointed out above, when given the opportunity, he has been very efficient.
With a new coaching staff and going into his contract year, Drake has a lot to prove this season. Add to that the fact that he is just 25 years old, it would not be at all shocking if this regime gave him the opportunity to prove himself. He is capable of running between that tackles and has very good hands, making him a dual threat back with the ability of being an every down player. Adding this kind of upside in this round with the foundation of high floors I have already built made a lot of sense to me. I did let two very strong pass catching backs slide by me in this round, but I took my chance and added the running back who has the clearest path at the most touches.
Now that are pick is in, we can sit back, relax, and see who falls to us in the next round. Until next week my peeps. As always, feel free to reach out on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal and/or in our chat room with any questions.
