Consistency in fantasy football is an important thing when it comes to roster construction. While we can appreciate the volatile boom/bust weeks of players like DeSean Jackson and Will Fuller, having a starting roster full of these types of players can lead to some rough outings when they play to their floors.
End of season fantasy stats give you a reflection of how a player did over the year, but they don’t really tell the whole story. Fantasy football is played on a week-to-week basis. We want players that are consistently playing well to make up the core of our fantasy squads.
In order to find these consistent, week-to-week fantasy players, I calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) for each player. This is the player’s week-to-week standard deviation divided by his points per game average. By dividing it against PPG, we can create a level playing field for players on a per-game basis.
I took a look at all fantasy games from Weeks 1 – 16 over the past two seasons as the makeup of our data set. Week 17 was also excluded from this exercise due to how often teams deploy backups and don’t necessarily treat it the same as the other weeks. A two-year span gives us more data points to work with and what should lead to a greater degree of accuracy.
I also wanted to add a fantasy element to this exercise, by adding Top-12% weeks — WR1 performances — and top-24% weeks — WR2 performances — during this time frame. These values were calculated by averaging every WR12 and WR24 fantasy week from Weeks 1 – 16 during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. That number came out to be 19.1 PPR FPs for WR12’s and 14.2 for WR24’s. The respective Top-12% and Top-24% was the number of times that each wide receiver surpassed that threshold divided by the number of games they played.
We’ve already tackled the quarterback and running back positions in this exercise, but now it’s time to see how the wide receivers fared.
| Player | Games | PPG | CV% | Top-12% | Top-24% |
| Julian Edelman | 11 | 17.0 | 23.5% | 27.3% | 81.8% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 30 | 20.6 | 37.0% | 43.3% | 86.7% |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 16 | 19.0 | 37.0% | 50.0% | 68.8% |
| Davante Adams | 29 | 19.0 | 37.8% | 55.2% | 79.3% |
| Jarvis Landry | 30 | 14.4 | 42.4% | 30.0% | 50.0% |
| Adam Thielen | 30 | 17.6 | 46.8% | 43.3% | 60.0% |
| Dede Westbrook | 21 | 11.5 | 47.3% | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Michael Thomas | 30 | 18.4 | 47.6% | 46.7% | 63.3% |
| Mike Evans | 29 | 15.4 | 47.7% | 27.6% | 55.2% |
| Antonio Brown | 29 | 21.9 | 47.8% | 55.2% | 79.3% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 26 | 13.9 | 50.2% | 23.1% | 46.2% |
| Anthony Miller | 12 | 10.0 | 50.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Keenan Allen | 29 | 17.2 | 50.5% | 27.6% | 55.2% |
| A.J. Green | 24 | 15.5 | 51.1% | 25.0% | 54.2% |
| Robert Woods | 27 | 15.7 | 51.7% | 25.9% | 51.9% |
| Christian Kirk | 12 | 10.3 | 52.1% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Brandin Cooks | 29 | 14.5 | 52.8% | 24.1% | 48.3% |
| Robert Foster | 7 | 12.4 | 53.2% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Julio Jones | 30 | 17.9 | 53.4% | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 27 | 16.5 | 53.6% | 37.0% | 51.9% |
| Courtland Sutton | 15 | 8.9 | 55.1% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Marvin Jones | 24 | 13.5 | 57.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 30 | 14.0 | 57.9% | 23.3% | 36.7% |
| Tyler Lockett | 30 | 10.7 | 58.1% | 13.3% | 26.7% |
| James Washington | 7 | 4.9 | 58.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Kupp | 23 | 13.6 | 59.0% | 21.7% | 47.8% |
| Devin Funchess | 27 | 11.3 | 59.2% | 7.4% | 37.0% |
| DeSean Jackson | 26 | 11.2 | 59.3% | 7.7% | 26.9% |
| Tyreek Hill | 30 | 18.4 | 59.8% | 40.0% | 56.7% |
| Randall Cobb | 21 | 10.7 | 60.3% | 9.5% | 28.6% |
| Golden Tate | 29 | 12.9 | 60.6% | 24.1% | 37.9% |
| Stefon Diggs | 27 | 15.9 | 61.3% | 29.6% | 48.1% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 24 | 13.0 | 62.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Curtis Samuel | 18 | 8.6 | 62.6% | 5.6% | 16.7% |
| Kenny Golladay | 25 | 11.4 | 63.1% | 24.0% | 32.0% |
| Donte Moncrief | 24 | 8.5 | 64.9% | 4.2% | 12.5% |
| Dante Pettis | 8 | 12.9 | 65.2% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Will Fuller | 16 | 13.5 | 66.0% | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| Sterling Shepard | 26 | 12.1 | 66.2% | 23.1% | 26.9% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 28 | 14.4 | 67.5% | 28.6% | 46.4% |
| Allen Robinson | 14 | 11.1 | 67.8% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| Robby Anderson | 28 | 12.5 | 67.8% | 21.4% | 35.7% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 24 | 10.2 | 68.2% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| Sammy Watkins | 23 | 11.4 | 68.8% | 13.0% | 21.7% |
| DeVante Parker | 20 | 8.9 | 68.9% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| John Brown | 23 | 9.2 | 70.0% | 13.0% | 17.4% |
| Chris Godwin | 27 | 8.3 | 70.8% | 3.7% | 18.5% |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 6 | 9.4 | 73.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 14 | 13.8 | 73.1% | 28.6% | 42.9% |
| Geronimo Allison | 12 | 8.8 | 73.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 13 | 8.0 | 75.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Corey Davis | 25 | 9.7 | 76.4% | 12.0% | 20.0% |
| Tyler Boyd | 23 | 11.2 | 77.4% | 26.1% | 30.4% |
| D.J. Moore | 15 | 9.7 | 77.5% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Keke Coutee | 6 | 10.5 | 77.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Tyrell Williams | 29 | 8.8 | 78.6% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Michael Gallup | 14 | 6.3 | 80.8% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Kenny Stills | 29 | 10.1 | 84.8% | 13.8% | 24.1% |
| Mike Williams | 19 | 9.6 | 92.4% | 10.5% | 15.8% |
| Amari Cooper | 25 | 13.9 | 94.1% | 20.0% | 32.0% |
| Tre’Quan Smith | 8 | 11.1 | 102.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Fantasy Takeaways
- Julian Edelman claims the top spot as the most consistent week-to-week fantasy option during our time frame. Averaging 17.0 PPR points per game, Edelman rarely fluctuated too high or too low below that. With such a high, consistent weekly fantasy output, it’s no surprise that his top-24% soars above 80%. In fact, only DeAndre Hopkins had a higher top-24 rate (86.7%) than Edelman (81.8%). Currently being drafted in the fourth round, Edelman makes for a highly consistent and productive fantasy asset to target that you can bank on at least WR2 production on a near weekly basis.
- Hopkins comes in tied for second place with the second-lowest coefficient of variation, tying with Odell Beckham Jr. (37.0%). Hopkins sported a healthy 20.6 PPG average during the past two years, and his prolonged week-to-week consistency helps explain why he’s being the first receiver taken in fantasy drafts this year. Beckham’s injury history limited him to just 16 games during this sample, but he’s been a top-12 fantasy asset in 50% of his games played during this time frame — a top-three rate. He may have a lower top-24 rate than Nuk, but we could possibly see that improve with him in Cleveland. The Air Raid/Air Coryell system that Freddie Kitchens and Todd Monken plan to employ should feature plenty of additional passing volume to go around.
- Nobody had a higher rate of top-12% outings than Davante Adams (55.2%). Averaging 19.0 PPG he also came in fourth in CV% at 37.8%. Adams should be in line for another consistently productive fantasy campaign with the Packers as their top wideout.
- A pair of slot receivers comes in next to finish out our top-six in CV% with Jarvis Landry (42.4%) and Adam Thielen (46.8%). Baker Mayfield now has two consistent fantasy receivers to support in Cleveland. Can he make that leap in Year 2 and support two top-24 fantasy wideouts? Fantasy drafters feel that way with him having an ADP of QB5. I certainly believe there’s a case to be made for that, but Landry and OBJ will likely cannibalize each other’s week-to-week consistency in the process. Look no further than Thielen and Stefon Diggs as an example. Thielen’s CV% came in the top-six while Diggs was down at WR32. Slot receivers with lower aDOTs and high volume should generally rank towards the top of this kind of exercise.
- One interesting observation was finding that T.Y. Hilton’s CV% over the past two seasons was down at just 67.5%. However, if we remove the 2017 campaign where Jacoby Brissett was the primary signal caller, Hilton’s CV% lowered to 46.6% with Andrew Luck. While we commonly lump Hilton with the boom/bust archetypes, Hilton’s 2018 season shows us that that may not be the case. His fantasy points per game shot up to 17.8 PPG during that time frame and may be a more consistent fantasy option than people generally give him credit.
- If we sort by highest CV%, the top-five is a list that most people could have guessed a few names accurately. Tre’Quan Smith gets the honors of “least consistent”, but we are working with a limited sample size of just eight games. Smith had two weeks with 25-plus fantasy points and four weeks with fewer than 5.0 PPR. It’s hard to put the onus on Smith here when working with limited volume.
- Amari Cooper’s name here shouldn’t surprise anyone. While he has been a more consistent player since joining Dallas, his collective numbers over the past two years were rather inconsistent (94.1% CV). That number lowered slightly during his time just in Dallas (84.2%), but Cooper’s still an erratic fantasy option. The Cowboy’s run-first mentality likely won’t help him overcome his inconsistencies without a dependable flow of targets going his direction. Cooper’s teammate, Michael Gallup (80.8% CV), also falls in the bottom-five due to similar lack of volume reasoning.
- Two field stretchers in Mike Williams (92.4%) and Kenny Stills (84.8% CV) round out our top-five least-consistent fantasy wide receivers. Williams combination of big plays (15.6 aDOT) and touchdowns (10) last year led many boom or bust weeks. It’ll be interesting to see how much of that touchdown work Hunter Henry saps away with his return. It may turn Williams into a more dependable receiver, just one with slightly fewer fantasy points. Stills (16.9 aDOT) falls in this same vertical receiving bucket, he just was less fortunate that he didn’t have any signal callers capable of throwing touchdowns last year. Expect that to change with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Stills’ ability to separate — 2.4 yards of separation between him and the closest defender — puts him in line with other vertical wideouts like John Brown (2.3), T.Y. Hilton (2.3), and Robby Anderson (2.3). It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Stills put up a similar stat line to Mike Williams’ 2018 line of 43-664-10.
