Consistency in fantasy football is an important thing when it comes to roster construction. While we can appreciate the volatile boom/bust weeks of players like DeSean Jackson and Will Fuller, having a starting roster full of these types of players can lead to some rough outings when they play to their floors.
End of season fantasy stats give you a reflection of how a player did over the year, but they don’t really tell the whole story. Fantasy football is played on a week-to-week basis. We want players that are consistently playing well to make up the core of our fantasy squads.
In order to find these consistent, week-to-week fantasy players, I calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) for each player. This is the player’s week-to-week standard deviation divided by his points per game average. By dividing it against PPG, we can create a level playing field for players on a per-game basis.
I took a look at all fantasy games from Weeks 1 – 16 over the past two seasons as the makeup of our data set. Week 17 was also excluded from this exercise due to how often teams deploy backups and don’t necessarily treat it the same as the other weeks. A two-year span gives us more data points to work with and what should lead to a greater degree of accuracy.
I also wanted to add a fantasy element to this exercise by adding Top-12% weeks — TE1 performances — during this time frame. These values were calculated by averaging every TE12 fantasy week from Weeks 1 – 16 during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. That number came out to be 10.3 PPR FPs per game. The respective Top-12% was the number of times that each tight end surpassed that threshold divided by the number of games they played.
We’ve already tackled the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions in this exercise. Now it’s time for the final installment of this series — the tight end position.
| Player | Games | PPG | CV% | Top-12% |
| Delanie Walker | 16 | 11.2 | 36.1% | 56.3% |
| Travis Kelce | 30 | 17.2 | 50.4% | 83.3% |
| Zach Ertz | 28 | 16.9 | 51.4% | 78.6% |
| Vance McDonald | 19 | 8.6 | 51.5% | 21.1% |
| Mark Andrews | 14 | 7 | 51.6% | 14.3% |
| Hunter Henry | 12 | 10.6 | 52.5% | 58.3% |
| Evan Engram | 24 | 11.6 | 53.6% | 54.2% |
| Jordan Reed | 18 | 10 | 59.3% | 38.9% |
| Jimmy Graham | 29 | 10 | 61.0% | 51.7% |
| Jack Doyle | 20 | 10.8 | 61.4% | 50.0% |
| Chris Herndon IV | 13 | 8.6 | 63.7% | 30.8% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 30 | 10.1 | 64.8% | 40.0% |
| Eric Ebron | 29 | 11.6 | 65.4% | 51.7% |
| David Njoku | 28 | 8 | 68.5% | 28.6% |
| Austin Hooper | 29 | 9.1 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| George Kittle | 29 | 11.1 | 70.2% | 48.3% |
| O.J. Howard | 21 | 10.6 | 70.4% | 52.4% |
| Jared Cook | 30 | 10.5 | 75.5% | 40.0% |
| Trey Burton | 25 | 8.7 | 78.2% | 32.0% |
| Dallas Goedert | 11 | 7.7 | 81.1% | 27.3% |
| Greg Olsen | 14 | 8.6 | 85.1% | 21.4% |
Fantasy Takeaways
- The most consistent player over the previous two years was a player that missed nearly the entire 2018 season! Delanie Walker had the lowest coefficient of variation (36.1%), with him routinely putting up fantasy performances close to his 11.2 PPG average. That 11.2 mark barely crested the TE12 two-year average (10.3), with Walker scoring a TE1 week 56.3% of the time. Tennessee’s additions of A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries creates more targets for Marcus Mariota to throw to this year. It wouldn’t shock me to see Walker less consistent in 2019 with so many more mouths to feed.
- Travis Kelce has been the second-most consistent fantasy option over the past two seasons, sporting a CV of 50.4%. He has a collective target share of 24.2% during this time frame averaging 8.8 targets per game. Tyreek Hill’s suspension opens up the possibility for even more volume heading his way in 2019. He is a legitimate first round fantasy option this year.
- The next highest CV belongs to Zach Ertz (51.4%). Ertz has become the top receiving option for Philadelphia, coming off a season where he broke the NFL record for most receptions in a season (116). Entering his age-29 season, Ertz is firmly planted in the top tier of tight ends and should contend with Kelce for the No. 1 spot again this year.
- Two of my favorite value plays in fantasy this year are Vance McDonald and Mark Andrews. Not only did these two show top-shelf consistency (51.5% CV and 51.6% CV, respectively), they both could be in line for more targets this year. The Steelers and Ravens both showed up inside the top-five of most vacated targets from 2018. Consistency and dependable target volume are rare outside the first two tiers of tight ends, but they’re exactly what makes McDonald and Andrews appealing fantasy candidates this season.
- One of the more least-consistent fantasy options over the past two years has surprisingly been San Francisco’s George Kittle (70.2%). However, if we look solely at George Kittle’s 2018 campaign, his CV% dropped to 49.2% and he registered a top-12 week in 12-of-15 games. Kittle gets back Jimmy Garoppolo this year as his primary quarterback. It’s difficult to project Kittle for anything close to last year’s record-breaking yards after the catch performance, but what he loses in YAC this year should be make up for in touchdowns (just five last season). Consistency should be on the rise for Kittle.
- The least consistent tight end among this 21-player subset, would be Carolina’s Greg Olsen (85.1%). Olsen has battled both injuries and age over the past two years, turning him into an inconsistent fantasy option. After putting up three-straight 1,000-yard campaigns, Olsen has totaled just 482 yards over the past two years combined. He had double-digit fantasy outings just twice last year in nine games. Flirting with retirement, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if we see Olsen hang up his cleats after this season with Ian Thomas waiting in the wings.
- The next least consistent tight end last year was Dallas Goedert (81.1%). The second tight end for Philadelphia, Goedert saw limited volume during his rookie season last year. Nobody ran more plays out of 12 personnel — featuring two tight ends — last season than the Eagles. It led to Goedert playing on 48% of the team’s offensive snaps and him catching 33-of-44 targets for 334 yards and four receiving touchdowns. There’s a strong chance he builds on those numbers this year given the offseason buzz out of Philadelphia camp, but as long as Ertz is there, the target volume should remain inconsistent for Goedert on a week-to-week basis.
