An age old question in fantasy football is… how do we determine when a player is declining in skill? A lot of research has been done over the years on this topic, to varying results. The NFL is a complex beast, specifically when trying to figure out how long a player will sustain success. There’s many reasons for this, between injuries, off-field issues, fluctuations in coaching staffs and new players constantly flowing into the league. What’s most important in this situation is not actually identifying what DOES cause players to decline, but what the NOISE is in the data. There’s a lot of macro speculation out there used for micro situations (individual players), particularly with statistical data year-to-year. In a lot of those situations, it’s there’s a lot of complicated and compound factors working together. In this piece, we’re going to run through some situations and, clear the noise, and break this down to what really matters.
Major Injuries End Careers
Injuries are a part of daily life for a professional athlete. The amount of pain that these players go through in a career is staggering. It’s pretty common for NFL players to play through relatively serious injuries, injuries the average human would be stuck in bed for weeks. These athletes are trained assassins that have incredible pain tolerance. Check out what DeAndre Hopkinssaid about his shoulder status towards the end of the 2018 season (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/texans-deandre-hopkins-reveals-severity-of-shoulder-injury/). However, something they can’t avoid are major injuries. A major injury, as defined by yours truly, is an injury that would cause a player to stop playing for an extended period, if during the season, sending them to injured reserve.
A few examples of major injuries:
– Knee ligament tears (Meniscus, ACL, MCL, PCL, and any of the other CL’s in the knee)
- Any type of broken bone
- Broken Ankle
- Concussions
- ANYTHING Involving The Back
- Hip displacement
- Torn Muscles
- Torn Achilles
These are all debilitating injuries that create a scenario where regardless of pain tolerance, it’s impossible for the athlete to play. Having evaluated prospects for the last decade, and seeing players go from their freshman season in college to their final NFL seasons, it’s incredibly clear there’s only so many major injuries a body can take (Usually two or three) before the player is permanently compromised. Every once in a while there’s a player like Adrian Peterson who can fully recover from three or four major injuries, but that is far from the norm. In fact, most players are one major injury away, specifically in college, from their careers ending.
One of the most insightful things I’ve ever heard on this topic was when Bill Simmons interviewed Steve Nash on the end of his career, and just how much it took to get ready to play in his late 30s. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0dkFui0g_Y) Nash was steadfast in his belief that he still had high level skill and awareness, but the preparation and getting his body ready to play in games became too daunting of a task. And that’s basketball, never mind getting hit at full speed by oncoming safeties for a decade. Every career has a different set of circumstances, but there’s only so many miles on the tires before playing professional football becomes unsustainable.
Let’s look at some aging skill position players who suffered major injuries in 2018:
Demaryius Thomas – Achilles
Emmanuel Sanders – Achilles
Marqise Lee – ACL
Delanie Walker – Ankle
Jay Ajayi – ACL
Greg Olsen – Foot
Tyler Eifert – Ankle
Doug Baldwin – Everything (literally)
Between Thomas, Sanders, Walker and Olsen, they’re all on the wrong side of 30, and WELL beyond the average length of an NFL career for their positions. It’s unfortunately very likely that all of these players will be very compromised, and some could be at the last stages of their careers. This is the second Achilles tear for Thomas, and Olsen has had chronic foot injuries over the last couple of seasons. It’s conceivable a few of these players will make a comeback to fantasy relevance, but from a fantasy perspective, having any type of expectations moving forward is an error. Ajayi has always had a degenerative knee condition, and Lee has been dealing with lower body injuries since his days at USC. Both players have dealt with nagging injuries for most of their 20s, and are going to have to work incredibly hard on their bodies day-to-day to get ready to play.
To put a bow on this, THIS is something that matters for determining who’s going to have their careers end soon. Injuries are incredibly important to track for fantasy football purposes, and it only takes a little real life logic (think of any pain in your body and magnify it significantly) to understand why this would connect.
A Down Year Statistically DOES NOT Always Mean A Regression In Skills
Let’s start by clearing something up. A down year CAN mean a regression in skills, but not always. The market will always adjust to the raw numbers of the previous season, and sometimes that creates a huge window to buy veterans for cheap.
A few names that have were left dead by the fantasy community, for no reason other than having a down year statistically.
Philip Rivers (2012)
Eli Manning (2013)
Steve Smith (2010)
Larry Fitzgerald (2012)
Frank Gore (2010)
Rivers was an MVP candidate in 2018! Fitzgerald went on to have three straight seasons with 100 receptions! Smith went on to have three more seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards! All these players sustained ENORMOUS regressions in talent around them, which made it appear like they fell off, but obviously that wasn’t the case. Even at the time, all listed were aging well past the curve of a normal career, but showed special resolve to sustain their careers. Situation can have a significant impact on year-to-year production, so it’s important to recognize that prominence in role and volume in the offense is more important than efficiency with veterans.
A few candidates that hit rock bottom situations in 2018:
Golden Tate
Matthew Stafford
Mark Ingram (Due to Suspension) (Maybe this is a reach.. sue me)
Getting phased out of the offense is a BAD sign for Veterans
The best way to determine if a player is truly regressing, is reading the tracks left behind by their teams. When a player is truly falling off, coaching staffs adjust accordingly. Less Snaps, less targets, less control of the offense. Running a small route tree for WRs, or becoming more one dimensional for RBs. Not only can this be determined on the field, but also, the NFL draft speaks, and ultimately, players getting released does as well. There’s plenty of examples every season, and It’s always sad to watch once great players find the bench, but it’s very important to recognize that’s a strong indication their career is over.
Some examples from 2018:
Michael Crabtree
Jordy Nelson
LeSean McCoy
LeGarrette Blount
Kelvin Benjamin
Pierre Garcon
In Conclusion, the players above age 28 that were not mentioned are the real winners. Of course injuries happen every year, but to assume regression in skills from veterans can be costly, ESPECIALLY in a season-long setting. Watch snaps, player movement (NFL draft/free agency/getting released) and injuries closely, and those will lead to who’s going to fail off a cliff much better than simply guessing or assuming.
