Continuing our ADP Reports series, this week we’ll be diving into what changes have occurred over the previous month in ADP over at the NFFC.
NFFC drafts can vary in league size and buy-in, but the overarching draft setup — 20 rounds, PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1 Kicker and 1 DST — is quite similar to the Bestball10 setup. Falling under the Sportshub Games Network umbrella, these leagues can be viewed in a similar light as Bestball10’s in terms of strategy.
Without further ado, let’s get right into some of the highest risers and fallers over at NFFC over the past 30 days.
July ADP Risers
Josh Gordon (+64.68)
Climbing into the 17th round, Josh Gordon has been the largest riser in ADP over the past month. Pictures of him throwing with Tom Brady were widely circulated recently. Gordon is still technically suspended by the league — indefinitely. The Patriots still decided to sign him to a one-year deal this offseason, but we’ll need to see the league take action and reinstate Gordon before he can take the field in 2019. The Patriots’ lack of vertical weapons makes Gordon a great buy-low candidate over the highly-priced N’Keal Harry (10th Round ADP). Harry was last seen working with the Patriots’ second-team unit in minicamp. In what seems like a perennial fantasy sentence, Gordon’s ceiling is worth chasing as a late-round flier.
Advice: He has a chance to be Brady’s top perimeter wide receiver and he’ll cost next to nothing to acquire. Worth a late round dart throw.
Randall Cobb (+53.59)
Randall Cobb’s rise on this list was a bit surprising, considering how quiet of an offseason we’ve had regarding his team swap to Dallas. The Cowboys remain one of the league’s most run-heavy squads, ranking top-10 in run play percentage. Cole Beasley leaves 87 vacated targets behind, but he didn’t really do much with them last season. He had double-digit fantasy points just five weeks of the year. Outside of a 9-101-2 stat line in Week 6 — 31.1 FPs, WR4 on the week — he likely didn’t have any of his other weeks score enough points to register as one of your best WR plays of the week. Cobb’s injury history (he’s missed 10 games over the last three years) and lack of passing volume here in Dallas’ time-sapping, run-oriented offense make him a fade at this increased price tag.
Advice: This spike in ADP makes no sense to me for Cobb. Playing on an offense with limited passing volume, he’s an easy fade.
Giovani Bernard (+47.18)
Recent news of Giovani Bernard’s usage in the Cincinnati offense has made one of the best sleepers in bestball drafts climb precipitously up the ADP boards over the past month. The Bengals plan to line Bernard up everywhere in Zac Taylor’s offense. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Bernard come in and spell Joe Mixon in order to keep him fresh, according to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner. Dehner even projects Bernard to see 11-13 touches per game and get back to the type of volume he used to see early in his career. While that’s conjecture from a beat reporter and not from the Bengals’ coaches directly, Dehner does back up this claim stating the Zac Taylor’s repeatedly mentioned he wants to use all his running backs more for Mixon’s sake. Bernard’s climbed from being borderline undrafted to the 16th round.
Advice: It’s sound reasoning and makes sense that the Bengals want to keep Mixon healthy, but Bernard’s true value comes from him replacing Mixon if an injury were to arise. Round 16 equity is fine and this just feels like the market correcting itself.
Tyreek Hill (+46.02)
It’s now been two weeks since Tyreek Hill met with NFL officials to discuss a potential verdict regarding his suspension. No official word has been made on the ruling, but the Chiefs believe he should be available for training camp on July 26th. That being said, Hill may start the season with a suspension. The length has been “predicted” by some Chiefs officials to carry a maximum of four games. Hill has climbed back into the fourth round in NFFC drafts. He’s difficult to recommend at this juncture without more information.
Advice: Your top-five draft picks should be the backbone of your fantasy squad. I can’t recommend Hill as one of those picks knowing you could lose the first four weeks and his bye week for his scores to count in just 11-of-16 weeks.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+39.88)
If you’ve been following along with my #content as of late, you know I’m all aboard the MVS hype train. Despite the climb in ADP, he’s still a massive buy target at this time.
Advice: Prior to last year, Aaron Rodgers has supported two top-24 fantasy wideouts in six of the eight seasons he’s played at least 15 games.
July ADP Fallers
Demarcus Robinson (-24.98) and Mecole Hardman (-24.56)
Two of the biggest fallers in ADP have been Chiefs’ wideouts Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman. Their respective falls have been a direct result in the uptick in ADP for Tyreek Hill. Robinson has now slipped to undrafted/20th Round territory and Hardman has fallen to the 13th. I’ve taken a few last-round picks on Robinson at this suppressed value in the event Hill faces a long-term suspension. Hardman’s a nice buy now in the 13th given his 4.33 speed and ability to put up spike weeks on what could be limited volume.
Advice: Until we get concrete answers regarding Hill, I have no qualms with anyone drafting these two at suppressed prices.
Hakeem Butler (-24.26)
Recent news has circulated that Cardinals’ beat reporters are projecting a combination of Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella to start the year as the team’s top three wideouts. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to drafters, but it evidently must be news for some with how much we’ve seen Butler fall (two full rounds). The 6’-5”, 227-pound product out of Iowa State should still put up some usable bestball weeks with how much the Cardinals are projected to pass. Rookie wide receivers are generally easy to fade in redraft, but they can still provide some spike weeks in the bestball format.
Advice: Butler’s price has dropped to 20th round/undrafted territory. A couple late darts are fine if you’re a volume bestball drafter.
Bruce Anderson (-22.59)
Recent reports of Ronald Jones looking good in minicamp has taken a serious hit to Bruce Anderson’s bestball value. Anderson was picked up by the Buccaneers as an UDFA coming out of North Dakota State. Despite the unproductive nature of Jones and Peyton Barber last year, they still remain ahead of Anderson on the depth chart. The positive coming out of this drop in ADP (down to 20th/undrafted), is that you can now get Anderson with one of your last picks and not have to invest much draft capital. The Buccaneers’ RB1 is far from decided at this point. If Jones or Barber continue to underperform like they did last year, don’t be surprised if Anderson sees some volume toward the second half of the season.
Advice: I like the idea of throwing late darts at players on strong offenses with unclear roles. Anderson makes sense as an RB6 option.
DaeSean Hamilton (-17.8)
Brief videos of Emmanuel Sanders starting to run routes is the only update in terms of recent news on Sanders’ return from an Achilles injury. Sanders reportedly feels optimistic about a Week 1 return, but you have to wonder how much that injury has sapped his explosiveness and speed. He is entering his age-32 season and working back from one of the worst injuries in professional sports. His return has a direct relationship with DaeSean Hamilton’s ADP, with them both fighting for slot receiver duties. Keep an eye on Sanders’ progress throughout training camp and preseason.
Advice: I don’t buy the Sanders hype, but that’s been a personal fade for me all offseason. It wouldn’t shock me to see the coaching staff deliberately put an 80% Sanders out there instead of a 100% Hamilton. I’m limiting Hamilton exposure for now, even at this cheaper price tag (Round 14).
