The timing of the All-Star break is perfect and good for us all – both players and fantasy managers. It gives us an opportunity to refresh and prepare to focus after a grueling three months and gives the players a chance to regroup and hit the second half healthier. We’ve been grinding for 15 weeks and it feels as though as it has been a full-on war of attrition. There have been over 200 IL stints since the beginning of the season with 72 alone in the month of June. It may not seem like a big number, but 30 of the top 200 ADP (15 percent) are currently either on the IL or have spent time on the IL this season. Those of us who play in leagues with shallow benches are struggling to field full lineups and seem to be scrambling every week for fill-in rentals to avoid taking zeroes in our starting lineups.
After all, taking zeroes is what we must avoid at all costs. I’ve mentioned it many times before, but every single run, stolen base and strikeout is valuable. It could be the difference between winning and losing your league on that final day of the season. The All-Star break is a valuable few days for us. It gives our injured players some time to continue to heal and allows us the opportunity to dig into our rosters. If you play roto, it’s the perfect time to truly assess where our teams lie in relation to points we can gain in specific categories.
Now, some zeroes will be inevitable for this upcoming half-week (Friday – Sunday after the break). Not every one of your pitcher slots will be utilized with some pitchers not scheduled to pitch until the week after. If you have certifiable drops on your roster and some flexibility, it may not be a bad time to pick up some top-notch middle relievers who could *hopefully* help you with ratios and strikeouts.
Otherwise, one strategy we could employ would be looking to the full week ahead (7/12 – 7/18). Here are a few teams we can consider snagging rentals from one week early who have nice-looking schedules for the week starting July 12:
- Rockies: 4 v SFG, 3 @ NYY
- Red Sox: 4 v TOR, 3 @ BAL
- Indians: 4 v DET, 3 v KCR
- Yankees: 4 v TBR, 3 @ COL
- Giants: 4 @ COL, 4 @ NYM (eight games)
Rotations Outlook
This weekend before the All-Star break is tricky in terms of projecting starting pitcher rotations because there is almost no certainty among the managers. One way to look at this Fri-Sun period right after the break is as the first third of a week-and-a-half period and not focus too hard on forcing pitchers you wouldn’t otherwise use in that Fri-Sun period just to have someone going. Of course, the other way to do it is to pick up a middle reliever for some innings, but that only works if you have a true droppable player. So, at this point, we are just having to review team rotations in general and see if there is anyone worth targeting in FAAB. Let’s take a gander per team:
NL WEST
ARI – Greinke, Ray and Kelly are not available in most leagues. Taylor Clarke is a pass in almost all formats while Alex Young is an intriguing addition since we still don’t have a timetable on Luke Weaver’s return. Don’t wait up for Taijuan Walker or Jon Duplantier anytime soon either.
SDP – Okay, I’m taking the ‘L’ on Matt Strahm. He’s indeed been hot garbage as a starter with the decreased velocity and the home runs allowed. He’s a drop in all formats with Dinelson Lamet back in the rotation and Strahm moving to the bullpen (where he’ll likely have much better success). Lamet had a decent return from TJS with an outing against the Dodgers and is an add in all formats 12-team and above.
LAD – The grandest rotation in baseball doesn’t have anyone available for you to scoop up, outside of maybe Ross Stripling in 10-team leagues. Rich Hill was transferred to the 60-day IL and isn’t even certain to be back this season at all.
SFG – A fairly set in stone rotation with Bumgarner, Samardzija, Drew Pomeranz, Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede. The latter three are occasionally streamable in home starts against weaker opponents but all three are below average SPs. Pomeranz had that nice mini stretch of 18 strikeouts over a two-game span and just when you feel he can be trusted he drops a deuce on ya. At some point, we might see Dereck Rodriguez or Andrew Suarez return to the rotation, but all in all, nothing to see here.
COL – Gray and Marquez are the only two viable SPs on this team but Peter Lambert is someone we can occasionally spot start on the road in 15-teamers. He does have a 2.73 HR/9 driven by eight homers allowed in four starts in Coors Field.
NL CENTRAL
CHC – A fairly unstable rotation with Kyle Hendricks and Cole Hamels the only guys we can trust on most occasions (and Hamels has that left oblique strain and is without a timetable). Those who own Darvish, Quintana and Lester likely pick their spots carefully with them. As you should, of course. If you’re not being judicious in your decisions to start or sit each of them, you’re doing it wrong.
STL – The rotation of Flaherty, Wainwright, Mikolas, Wacha and Hudson has been the epitome of seesaw. Some folks entrusted their #2 SP selection to Flaherty and he’s sadly disappointed with an ERA near 5.00 and nearly 2 HR/9. Daniel Ponce de Leon has been electric as a bulk-innings guy in middle relief over the last couple weeks and is the guy who deserves a shot in the rotation. With this wonky and unstable group, it’s bound to occur at some point soon.
PIT – This rotation is badly in need of their ace returning. Jameson Taillon is about a month away from returning to the rotation, and that’s being generous. He just started playing catch this week and has some ways to go before he returns. Until then, it’s Joe Musgrove as their de facto ace since Chris Archer has been stinking up the joint (5.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 11.8% BB). Archer is crushing fantasy teams who continue to trot him out there weekly. Dario Agrazal makes a spot start Saturday but will likely be sent back down. Someone to keep an eye on for deeper leagues.
MLW – This rotation is in shambles beyond their ace Brandon Woodruff. Miller Park is a tough spot for pitchers and I usually do my best to stay away from trying to guess when Davies, Chacin and/or Anderson will have a decent start. A very easy avoid for me here, even with streaming. The team recently signed Drew Smyly but that’s likely to do more bad than good. Don’t you dare.
CIN – Well whaddya know? The would have thought halfway through the season that the Reds have the best and most reliable rotation in the division? Luis Castillo is having a true breakout, as he and Sonny Gray have both already surpassed the 100-strikeout mark. Tanner Roark has been a reliable third starter (3.51, 1.29) while Tyler Mahle and Anthony DeSclafani both have had flashes of brilliance while still continuing to struggle against left-handed hitters. It’s interesting to note reputation as despite the fact that Mahle and DeSclafani have near identical 5×5 roto stats, Mahle is owned in 87% of 12-team OC’s and DeSclafani only 33%. Mahle has a 2-8 record while Disco is at 5-4. Record doesn’t matter, but I did want to point that out.
NL EAST
WAS – The rotation is smokin’, and with Anibal Sanchez pitching well, they’re officially a Fab-4. That fifth rotation spot is negligible. Austin Voth was sent to minors and might be back up after break to regain fifth spot, or eventually, a returning Hellickson or Fedde will occupy the end of the rotation.
NYM – No FAAB Values here unless you consider a revived Jason Vargas one. It’s possible the Mets become sellers at the trade deadline as they’re over 13 games back of the division lead.
PHI – Aaron Nola has bounced back to ace status over the past month (2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 39 K in 34 IP) while the rest of the rotation simply can’t be trusted. I’m close to taking yet another ‘L’ on Nick Pivetta and I’m sure that as soon as I do and drop him, he’ll get his head out of the proverbial clouds and pitch with the upside we witnessed through a stretch last season. I’m not holding my breath at this point, though. Over this past month, Arrieta has a 4.68 ERA and Eflin a 5.09.
ATL – Not a bad group at all and this rotation has crazy depth. You have to figure that Mike Foltynewicz gets himself back on track and returns to this rotation at some point in the second half – a situation you may want to track and get in front of FAAB-wise. Otherwise, keep an eye on Bryse Wilson, who was optioned but should start the Monday back from break. He’s just 21 years old and has plenty of work to do before being a finished product. Someone I’d like to target in keeper leagues.
MIA – A very solid rotation and good ballpark to call home. The rotation is beyond deep with Caleb Smith, Zac Gallen, Jordan Yamamoto, Trevor Richards, Elieser Hernandez and Sandy Alcantara. That’s seven viable guys, and at some point, management may consider giving Richards some time in the minors. Yamamoto has everyone screaming regression when they look at his underlying metrics, but if you watch him, he passes the eye test. He looks like he belongs in the majors, but let’s not forget that the Marlins will have even tougher decisions to make when Pablo Lopez returns. The Marlins have some trade bait here for sure.
AL WEST
HOU – If you pay close attention in fantasy and in baseball, you’re likely not shocked that Justin Verlander has allowed more homers (12) than any SP in baseball over the past month. A very rough month, but what are you going to do, bench him? You can’t. This rotation is short-handed with Peacock on IL so we may see a couple weeks of Jose Uriquidy and he’s worth a pickup in 15-teamers. Wade Miley has been an auto-start at home (1.86 ERA there, 4.56 on the road).
LAA – A monster blow to the entire Angels’ family with the passing of Tyler Skaggs as this team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder likely for the remainder of the season. The rotation is serviceable at the moment with Griffin Canning and Andrew Heaney as their co-aces. Felix Pena is usable against righty-heavy lineups (.238 wOBA vs RHH, .393 vs LHH).
OAK – A strewn group of random, middling guys (Bassitt, Mengden, Fiers and the two Andersons) who we can stream in the right matchups at home. A big blow losing Montas for the season and with Jesus Luzardo suffering a setback in his road back to the majors. Keep a pulse on Jharel Cotton who’s throwing live bullpen sessions in High-A and is on his way back as soon as August. Even closer to a return is lefty Sean Manaea who could be back in less than 30 days. By mid-August, this rotation could see a nice uplift with Luzardo, Cotton and Manaea.
SEA – An interesting setup with four lefties (Kikuchi, LeBlanc, Milone, Gonzales) and Mike Leake. All of these guys are 27 or older. I’m assuming Felix Hernandez returns at some point but he’s nothing more than someone for us to stream hitters against in DFS. The Mariners are way out of the playoff race and could trade off a few pieces but not sure how much value they have. The Mariners have a horrendous defense – the league’s worst – and that doesn’t help this rotation whatsoever. Milone has been a decent streamer in 15-teamers and boasts a 0.88 ERA over the past month.
TEX – We have two true fantasy values in Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, but otherwise a tricky place for pitchers with a hot summer in Texas coming. Make sure to pick up Jesse Chavez in any leagues he may still be available in and enjoy the ride while you can.
AL CENTRAL
MIN – One of the better rotations in baseball, though we’ve seen the very predictable decline of Jake Odorizzi. He’s on IL with a blister and should be back after the break with rookie Devin Smeltzer likely stepping up to take his one-time in the rotation on Sunday. Michael Pineda is the guy we want to see step up his game and have a good second half. His strikeouts are way down (21 percent), but he’s done an excellent job not allowing too many free passes (4.2 percent walk rate). I’d expect some improvement on that 4.78 ERA from here on out.
DET – Rough sledding here as the team’s rotation has a 4.87 ERA this season with Boyd the lone bright spot despite some recent struggles allowing dingers (11, second-most to Verlander over the past month). Spencer Turnbull is the only other fantasy useful SP on this roster and if he was dropped in any leagues while on IL, you may want to consider adding him.
CHW – Well, it sure looks like Lucas Giolito is this year’s Snell – and most of us were able to pick him up in FAAB earlier this season. The rotation gets a nice shot in the arm with rookie SP Dylan Cease who will be the belle of the FAAB ball in NFBC this weekend. Some bad breaks with two studs undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year (Rodon, Kopech), but the future is bright for this rotation.
KCR – A true disaster of a rotation (Duffy, Keller, Bailey, Junis, Sparkman) and a great place to target hitters in upcoming weeks. The Indians, for example, will face them twice this month – three games in Cleveland four in Kansas City.
CLE – Among the highest strikeout rates for a rotation, but they’ve had some bad breaks themselves with the sad news of Carrasco’s leukemia, Kluber’s extended IL stint and a big chunk of the season that Clevinger missed. When healthy, it’s arguably the most dangerous rotation in baseball – at least in the American League. The Indians are 6.5 games behind the Twins and not quite out of it so perhaps Bauer doesn’t get traded. And Kluber should be back sometime in the next few weeks.
AL EAST
NYY – Just because the Bronx Bombers have a full and decent rotation (Paxton, Tanaka, Sabathia, German, Happ) doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t add more firepower to it. Luis Severino may be back late-August / early-September, or he may suffer a setback or get delayed. We can’t rely on him. What they really need is for Paxton to start pitching like the ace we think he can be. His past month has been an unmitigated disaster (5.76 ERA, 1.92 WHIP).
BOS – A season of surprises continues, as the Red Sox’ bullpen and rotation have been among the league’s worst lately. All of their primary SPs (Sale, Price, E-Rod, Porcello) have ERA’s north of 4.00 this past month with Porcello essentially crushing those who’ve been using him (5.88 ERA last five starts). Nathan Eovaldi will return as the team’s closer and will be another one of the more popular bids this weekend where available.
TBR – The league’s best rotation has been held together by the phenomenal work of Charlie Morton who boasts a 2.36 ERA through 18 starts. Yonny Chirinos (0.99 WHIP) has been very valuable for those who picked him up early while Blake Snell has fallen on hard times (4.87 ERA) despite the value of 117 K in 85 IP. Brendan McKay was temporarily optioned but should be back after the All-Star break. Make sure you pounce on any managers in your league who drop him. Tyler Glasnow is about six weeks away, and that’s being optimistic. If the Rays have fallen out of reach of a wild card by then, don’t be surprised to see him shut down if he’s being brought along slowly.
TOR – A true sh*t show for all intents and purposes. Marcus Stroman is likely to get dealt and the rest of the rotation offers little to no value. Rookie RHP Trent Thornton can be streamed in plus matchups and they should get second-year lefty Ryan Borucki back at some point in the next few weeks. Matt Shoemaker had a brilliant start in April but is long done for the season with a torn ACL.
BAL – Ah, good ol’ Baltimore. The team we look for, for our hitters, in every week’s schedule. John Means is their lone bright spot (2.50, 1.18 in 14 starts) and will represent them in the All-Star Game. Dylan Bundy averages over a strikeout-per-inning so he’s got some value in deeper leagues where you don’t mind a ratio beating on occasion.
