Stephen Strasburg continues to avoid the walk while racking up the punchouts. Nick Pivetta should be able to do that, but he’s constantly being taken deep. Wade Miley continues to succeed, which is somewhat vexing. John Means is rolling along for the Orioles. Sonny Gray is doing most things right. German returned for the Yankees, while Darvish is trying to find any kind of consistency with the Cubs. Chacin has been better. Does it matter? Boyd continues to miss bats while Alcantara is issuing a lot of free passes. Boyd has put up some historically good strikeout numbers for the Tigers. Adam Wainwright is usable… sometimes. Can you believe that Jason Vargas has been rolling?
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Sandy Alcantara rebounded from allowing six runs against the Nats to allow just two runs over 5.2 inning against… the Nationals. That he could bedevil the previous opponent just day later speaks pretty well to the stuff of Alcantara. At the same time, he walked four, so it was a somewhat difficult outings. Over his last seven outings he’s gone at least five innings each time out, and only once has he allowed more than three earned runs on his way to a 2.91 ERA. Still, the FIP is 4.52, the xFIP is 5.40, and the walk rate is elevated at 4.36 per nine. It’s not as good as it looks on the surface.
Chris Archer has failed to last six innings in 4-straight starts. After allowing 11 runs in two outings, Archer has allowed just six earned runs over his last three. He’s also allowed three homers in the three, and get this, he’s allowed a massive 18 bombs over his last 12 starts, only once in 12 outings has he kept the ball in the yard, on his way to a HR/9 mark of 2.67 that is just stupid silly. To reiterate a point I made last week, as much as I love the arm, there’s really nothing to hand your hat on here with Archer. His game is just off.
Matthew Boyd allowed nine hits and four runs over 5.1 innings in his final start before the break. But that wasn’t the news. The standout feature of the effort was the 13 punchouts he produced which allowed him to rack up 142 before the ASB. That total is the most since Mickey Lolich had 156 in 1973, and it’s the fourth most for a Tigers’ hurler since 1933. By the way, Boyd had 159 strikeouts last season in 63.1 more innings. What a find.
Jhouyls Chacin has allowed a total of three runs his last two outings, and that’s not 3-of-4 outings with two earned runs or less. After being such a total mess for the majority of the first half, it’s hard to take what we are currently seeing as being anything other than just a sample size/regression thing. Chacin is still allowing more than four walks per nine, his K/BB ratio is well below two, and that 1.84 HR/9 rate is crazy awful. Just can’t recommend him, despite the recent results.
Chimeras… scary.
Yu Darvish has walked just four batters his last three outings, a massive improvement given that 4.55 BB/9 rate this season. So, things are getting better. Well… in each of those three outings Darvish has allowed at least four earned runs. Worse, he’s allowed two homers in each of the three outings. He’s actually allowed two homers in 4-of-5 outings as his homer rate has swollen to 1.86 per nine. Keep waiting for a turnaround to occur, but there really isn’t anything going on here to suggest it’s likely to happen.
Genetically engineered babies are a thing.
Domingo German returned to great fanfare allowing one run over six innings as he walked none and struck out six. Great arm. Great success to date. Still concerns about workload, health and all that. See this report.
Sonny Gray has really been on his game the last two as he’s allowed a total of two runs over 14.1 innings. He walked just two batters while punching out 18 Cubs and Brewers, both victories. In 17 outings this season Gray has pretty quietly posted an impressive 1.18 WHIP, a 10.26 K/9 rate and a 1.98 GB/FB as very few have seemed to realize just how effective that Gray has been to this point. Given that his swinging strike rate is lower than the league average, and that his 10.6 percent mark is only 0.8 above his career level, it’s very difficult to support the belief that his current K-rate will continue, not to mention that his first pitch strike rate is also a career worst. But make no mistake, he’s performing well overall.
Merrill Kelly’s last seven outings have been, save one outing, damn good. In that time, he’s produced a 2.98 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and an uber-impressive 7.20 K/BB ratio. He’s not dominating by any means, but he’s turned into a veritable quality start machine for the D’backs failing to throw six innings in just one of those outings.
John Means is rocking a 2.50 ERA in the AL East… as a rookie. That’s damn impressive. Over his last 10 starts he has a 2.37 ERA, has gone at least five innings each time out and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing. Means has allowed a total of seven earned runs his last six outings as he has been marvelous when compared to the non-existent draft day expectations. He has been rather fortunate in the homer category as his HR/9 rate is a mere 0.98 thanks to an 8.1 HR/FB ratio. The ratio is likely to go up, and with a 47.4 percent fly ball rate as of this writing there should be some long-term concern given that he’s not a big strikeout arm (10.1 percent swinging strike rate).
Wade Miley was on my bench for his last start (you too?). Of course, Miley went out and allowed one run over six innings, against the Rockies, in Colorado. Yeah, that’s what everyone expected. That’s back-to-back 1 ER/ 6 IP efforts from Miley who has dropped the ERA down to 3.28. He continues to beguile hitters, even though the majority of the advanced measures say he should be able to (4.54 SIERA, 4.33 xFIP). At some point it ends, right?
Nick Pivetta simply cannot keep the ball in the yard, and it’s ruining nearly every effort he makes. In each of the last four outings he’s permitted at least two homers, three in one, and the result is nine homers in 23.1 innings, good for a 3.47 HR/9 rate, and his ERA in that time is an unhealthy 7.33. He’s not usable in any league at the moment, and likely doesn’t deserve to be rostered in most mixed leagues.
What ever happened to Amelia Earhart?
Stephen Strasburg punched out 14 the other night to increase his K/9 rate to 10.68 which puts him in line to reach at least 10.47 strikeouts per nine for the fifth straight season. He’s also operating with a 2.24 BB/9, which would be a four hear low and allow him to post a K/BB ratio over four for the sixth straight season. Lefties are batting .166 against him with a .232 wOBA, and everyone has a .235 wOBA against him on the road this season. Can he stay healthy?
Jason Vargas has allowed a single homer in four straight games but only four his last eight outings. He’s only won two games out of those eight despite owning a 2.66 ERA having allowed three or fewer earned runs in every single outing. Vargas has 16 punchouts his last two starts (11.2 innings), and when you factor in that 1.18 WHIP in that time, you can see why so many folks are having a lot of success streaming him at the moment.
Adam Wainwright has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 5-straight outings. Waino has also struck out 21 batters his last 17 innings as he’s returned to being a usable piece in mixed leagues. Note that he has been useless on the road with a 6.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a .280/.366/.493 slash line, so rolling him out there as an option at home seems like the only advisable path to fantasy success for the aging righty.
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