Happy Friday Fantasy Guru fam! Hopefully everyone enjoyed their Fourth of July and is ready for the weekend. It’s that time of the week where we take a tour through the Mind of Marsal.
Generally it takes a wide receiver several years to adapt to the NFL. This could be because it takes them time to adjust to the NFL, they have to learn the offense and/or they do not have a big role at first. Of course there are exceptions to the rule and there are wide outs that instantly find success, but that does not occur often. We do not see what we saw in 2014 happen that often. Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and Kelvin Benjamin all did well as rookies that year. With the exception of Watkins, who finished the season with 982 receiving yards, the rest of the wide outs I just mentioned each topped 1,000 receiving yards.
Here are some notable receivers that excelled in their third season in the NFL: Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice, and Greg Jennings, to name a few.
This season, there are some interesting receivers entering their third season that could breakout and have a strong season. Granted, I will not be talking about JuJu Smith-Schuster in this article even though he is entering his third year in the league. He has been good since entering the league and broke out in a big way as a sophomore in 2018, catching 111 passes for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. Now a star in the league, Smith-Schuster should once again be an elite wide out this season.
THIRD-YEAR WIDE RECEIVERS THAT COULD BREAKOUT
Corey Davis, Titans – Davis is someone I had high expectations from since entering the league, but the 2017 fifth overall pick has not lived up to the hype. That said, this could be the season he takes a leap and breaks out. As a rookie, he played 11 games, caught 34 passes for 375 yards and did not score a touchdown. His numbers improved last year in every category, catching 65 passes for 891 yards and four touchdowns (16 games). Last season, he topped 100 receiving yards in two games, averaged more yards per game, and more yards per catch than he did as a rookie, while finishing as WR27 in PPR formats. Another department where he saw improvement was in his catch rate, going from 52 percent as a rookie to 58 percent as a sophomore. Last season, Davis was targeted 112 times which was 47 more times than the previous year. If the volume continues to trend in the right direction, he could be in a position to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his NFL career. His current ADP is WR35 and somewhere in the ninth or tenth round. This is solid value for a receiver that has an immense ceiling and entering his third season in the league.
| YEAR | TM | G | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/G | YPC | 100+ | TD |
| 2018 | TEN | 16 | 112 | 65 | 891 | 55.7 | 13.7 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017 | TEN | 11 | 65 | 34 | 375 | 34.1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 27 | 177 | 99 | 1266 | 46.9 | 12.8 | 2 | 4 |
Kenny Golladay, Lions – Golladay had a strong sophomore campaign in 2018 and could have an even better season in 2019. Last year, he caught 70 of his 119 targets for 1,063 yards and five touchdowns. He did this despite being the second option during the first seven games of the season behind Golden Tate who averaged 9.9 targets per game. Once Tate was traded to the Eagles, Golladay saw an increase of three targets per game. With Tate on the team, Golladay averaged 6.3 targets per game and without he averaged 9.3 targets per game. There is a real chance that Golladay sees upwards of 150 targets this season in Detroit. This is a team that finished last year averaging nearly 36 pass attempts per game, which was good for 12th most in the league. He finished as WR21 in 2018 and has a real shot at finishing as a top 15 receiver now that he will be the featured wide out for the Lions from the start of the season. His current ADP of WR17 in the fourth round seems very fair considering the potential ceiling this young man offers. The Lions appear to have gotten a steal in the 2017 draft with Golladay, considering he was selected in the third round.
| YEAR | TM | G | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/G | YPC | 100+ | TD |
| 2018 | DET | 15 | 119 | 70 | 1063 | 70.9 | 15.2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2017 | DET | 11 | 48 | 28 | 477 | 43.4 | 17 | 0 | 3 |
| Total | 26 | 167 | 98 | 1540 | 59.2 | 15.7 | 3 |
8 |
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers – Another 2017 third round pick, Godwin is coming off of a very solid sophomore campaign. Last season, he caught 59 passes for 842 yards and seven touchdowns, on 92 targets. He displayed his good hands, with a 62 percent catch rate and finished the season with three 100+ yard games. He also showcased his ability to be a major red zone threat, scoring on all six of his red zone catches. It’s worth noting that he led the team with 16 red zone targets. Entering his third season, Godwin is in a good position to have a monster season for a couple of reasons. The first is the fact that DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are no longer with the team. These two accounted for 175 of Tampa Bay’s targets last season. The other reason to feel good about Godwin heading into the 2019 season is the fact the Bucs hired head coach Bruce Arians who should really help the entire offense improve. Godwin has yet topped 842 receiving yards since entering the league, but I have a strong feeling that he will eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in 2019. Despite being third on his team in targets last season, he managed to finish the year as WR26. His current ADP of WR20 in the fifth round seems reasonable for him if you ask me.
| YEAR | TM | G | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/G | YPC | 100+ | TD |
| 2018 | TB | 16 | 95 | 59 | 842 | 52.6 | 14.3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2017 | TB | 16 | 55 | 34 | 525 | 32.8 | 15.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 32 | 150 | 93 | 1367 | 42.7 | 14.7 | 4 | 8 |
Cooper Kupp, Rams – If you have been reading my work, you know how much I love Kupp this year. I was big on him last year and took him a round or two ahead of ADP in most of my leagues. It appeared that it was going to pay off in a big way, but he tore his ACL and his season was cut short. Now entering his third season, assuming he will be fully healthy at the beginning of the year, Kupp is in a great spot to breakout. After all, he was on pace for 80 receptions, 1,132 receiving yards, and twelve touchdowns. That would have been good for top 10 wide receiver numbers from a fantasy standpoint. He played just eight games, finishing with 40 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns. It was vast improvement from his rookie season in 2017 where he caught 62 passes for 869 yards and five touchdowns. Something that really stood out to me from last year is the jump in yards per game to 70.8 which was roughly a 13-yard increase from the season before. He has great hands with a career 68 percent catch rate and has been efficient since joining the league. It was pretty clear that Jared Goff missed Kupp on the field last season. With Kupp, Goff had a 68 completion percentage, averaged 313.4 passing yards per game, and threw 22 touchdowns (10 games). However, without Kupp, Goff had a 60 completion percentage, averaged 259 passing yards per game, and tossed 10 touchdowns (six games). If Kupp is completely healthy entering the year and stays that way, he could be in for a big season in 2019. I am all in once again.
| YEAR | TM | G | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/G | YPC | 100+ | TD |
| 2018 | LAR | 8 | 55 | 40 | 566 | 70.8 | 14.2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2017 | LAR | 15 | 94 | 62 | 869 | 57.9 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
| Total | 23 | 149 | 102 | 1435 | 62.4 | 14.1 | 3 | 11 |
Mike Williams, Chargers – Williams was drafted seventh overall in 2017. As a rookie, he did not have much of a role, turning 23 targets into 11 catches for 95 yards. But as a sophomore last year, he turned a corner and erupted for 10 touchdowns, while catching 43 of his 66 targets for 664 yards. Entering his third year in the league, Williams is expected to have an expanded role on this offense, which means he should see more volume. Tyrell Williams, who accounted for 63 targets last year is no longer with the Chargers and I anticipate the Mike Williams will benefit greatly from his absence. The young wide out should have a big season and could come out of his shell in 2019. Expectations were high for him coming out of college and the 10-touchdown season we saw last year is probably one of the reasons why.
| YEAR | TM | G | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/G | YPC | 100+ | TD |
| 2018 | LAC | 16 | 66 | 43 | 664 | 41.5 | 15.4 | 0 | 10 |
| 2017 | LAC | 10 | 23 | 11 | 95 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 26 | 89 | 54 | 759 | 51 | 24 | 0 | 10 |
That’s it for this week’s Mind of Marsal. As always, you can find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal and/or catch me in the chat room with any questions.
