Each week we take a look at some numbers that you need to know about in fantasy baseball. This week we’re not looking at one specific category, changing things up a bit are we. Instead, we will be taking a look at a series of numbers that portend success, or struggles, in the second half of the season. Which players are being over/under valued at the moment? That’s what we are endeavoring to find out.
*Minimum of 200 plate appearances for hitters and qualifiers for the ERA title on the hill.
NUMBERS THAT ARE CONCERNING
.426: That happens to be the BABIP of Fernando Tatis. The rookie has 12 homers and 13 steals in just 52 games for the Padres in what has been a phenomenal start to his career. Sorry though, it’s just not possible to post a BABIP that high. It just doesn’t happen. When you combine that with his 29 percent strikeout rate we have a guy who will see his .325 batting average drop a good deal the rest of the way.
4.50: Luis Castillo has had a tremendous first half. That said, there is one especially worrisome number, and that is his BB/9 rate. Flat out, there is no way he’s going to hold on to a 1.08 WHIP and 2.29 ERA in the second half if he continues to issue free passes at the current rate. In fact, Castillo has the third worst walk rate in baseball (Teheran/Darvish) and he is last in baseball in first pitch strike rate at 52.3 percent. The stuff is great, but he’s just not throwing enough strikes to keep the pace up.
5.43: The xFIP of Mike Fiers. At the same time, his ERA sits at 3.87, a massive difference. Why? Fiers has a 5.89 K/9 rate which is more than two full points below his career rate. It’s a deficient mark. Second, his current 11.0 HR/FB ratio would be a five-year low (career 13.4 percent). The homers will increase at some point. Third, with all those batted balls it’s amazing that his BABIP is .232. That’s only .051 points below his career number. Down times lie ahead.
7.85: The ERA of Jake Odorizzi his last four outings as the man we all know and love has finally shown himself. You know, the guy who hangs around the fringe of mixed league teams, the streaming option of yester year. Odorizzi has been living a magical life for the majority of the first half, but now he’s dealing with a blister and the inevitable down turn in his performance has started to occur.
15: The number of earned runs allowed by Zach Elfin his last 14 innings pitched. Even with his success this season, his K/9 rate is down a full batter from last season, and he’s exactly matched his league average 1.30 WHIP of last season this season.
19.2: The swinging strike rate of Adalberto Mondesi, the second worst mark in baseball (Alfaro). Mondesi is also 10th worst in O-Swing (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) amongst the 240 players with 200 plate appearances. Mondesi is also 8th in Z-Swing (pitches inside the strike zone). Mondesi swings at everything, and that’s simply going to put his batting average in peril. Note that he hit .203 in June and that over his last 19 games he has one homer while batting .200 with a .217 OBP.
33.1: The strikeout rate of Michael Chavis, the sixth worst mark in baseball. It’s very difficult to be a consistent offensive performer when you don’t put the ball in play. It’s also difficult to hit .265, his current mark. He’s seen his average buttressed by that .358 BABIP. On the year he’s “hitting” .200 against lefties, and that too will eventually catch up to him.
34.9: The HR/FB ratio of Roberto Perez. Entering the 2019 season the mark was 12.1 percent. Clearly, he must have drastically overhauled his swing, right? His current fly ball rate of 33.1 percent is two percent lower than last season, and less than a percentage point above his career mark. His current launch angle is also up less than one percent from last season, and the mark of 6.2 percent is barely half the league average of 11.1 percent. A long homer dry spell is coming.
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NUMBERS THAT HINT AT BETTER TIMES AHEAD
.373: The BABIP of Anthony DeSclafani over the last 30-days. There are a majority of analysts who believe that while a pitcher can contribute to controlling batters a bit with the old batted ball, that things tend to naturally normalize for hurlers over time. If that happens with AD, and it seems likely it will, and he continues to hold on to his other numbers (such as a 9.91 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 the last 30 days), then better times lie ahead in the second half.
5.40: The K/BB ratio of Tanner Roark the last 30 days as his walk rate has dropped to 1.50 per nine. Don’t know how many have noticed, but the ERA is down to 3.51 as a result of the control we’ve seen of late. Still, only a half-hearted support here as it’s seems unlikely that he will stay locked in like this since he’s never been this guy before. Not really sure why I chose to add him here. A momentary brain-freeze? Let’s just say that he’s a really solid streaming option who might be emerging as more than that in deeper mixed leagues.
16.3: That is the walk rate of Justin Smoak, 9th best in baseball. That mark belies the .226 batting average that he currently owns. Another reason to think better times are ahead is that 18.4 percent K-rate which leaves him with an impressive 0.89 BB/K ratio, a mark which is the 10th best in baseball. Heck, his OBP of .365 is .139 points better than his batting average. Further, that OBP is better than Ohtani (.363), Dahl (.362), Conforto (.361), Torres (.361) etc.
19.1: Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this season, but in truth, he’s actually been even better than it appears. At least a bit. That 19.1 percent mark is the HR/F ratio he’s allowed. Only one in his previous six seasons was the mark above 10.0 percent, and his career rate is just 10.9 percent. It’s extremely reasonable to expect his homer pace to slow, and with that his 3.28 ERA could come down (his xFIP is 2.68).
51.4: That is the fly ball rate of Matt Olson this season. That’s not going to aid his batting average pursuits, though the mark of .245 this season is a direct match for his career rate, but it will certainly aid his ability to continue to blast the ball deep. Don’t know how many folks have been paying attention, I can’t remember the last time I got a question about Olson, but the dude is mashing with 17 homers in 204 at-bats meaning he’s on pace to hit 30-homers despite missing so much time to start the season. He’s hitting so many balls in the air that the homer should continue to come. His current 23.0 HR/FB ratio is one percent above his career mark and it’s totally a level that he should be able to maintain.
53.7: The hard-hit ball rate of the Giants’ Alex Dickerson on his 41 batted balls. The leaderboard requires 50 BBE, so he’s not on the leaderboard, but that 53.7 percent mark would actually be 4th best in baseball if he were to maintain it over nine more batted balls. Dickerson also is sporting an elite 93.2 mph exit velocity supporting the ‘damn he’s hitting the ball hard’ thing. Don’t overlook the fact that in 219 games at Triple-A that Dickerson has rocked a .333/.398/.541 SLG leading to a .939 OPS. The man can hit, and the Giants have no reason to stop running him out there daily.
63.7: The left on base percentage of Jose Quintana the last six starts. The league average is about 72 percent, and we often get a whole lot of regression to the mean in this category. Note that Quintana owns a 74.5 percent career mark, ad that the last four seasons the mark has been at least 71.4 percent each season. Heck, the mark is 70.5 percent this season. Quintana should stabilize.
