Welcome back for another installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Last week’s segment on Marquez Valdes-Scantling provided a ton of clarity in how I’ll be approaching MVS in redraft, bestball, and dynasty leagues this summer.
That’s essentially the goal of this series. To try and illuminate some of the more puzzling players at current ADP and to try and shed some light whether or not we should be buying or selling at current cost.
We’ll start with taking an overall zoomed out look at the team situation — starting with the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on projected volume, role that the player will have in the offense, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s player is a receiver that’s capable of leading the league in receiving any given week, it’s downfield specialist, Robby Anderson. Not only are we going to dive into this new-look Jets offense run by Head Coach Adam Gase, but we’ll dive specifically into the role he has set for Anderson.
Let’s get right into it.
2019 New York Jets
The Jets spent the No. 3 overall pick on Sam Darnold last year. That season was all about letting Darnold get reps and learn the offense. While he had an impressive stretch in December to end the year, the overall results for last year’s offense were less than spectacular.
| Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Points Scored | |
| NYJ | 3,165 | 18 | 1,622 | 11 | 333 |
| Rank | 25th | 26th | 26th | 23rd | 23rd |
Poor play calling and ineffective running led to a 4-12 record. Flash-forward to 2019, and now we have the front office bringing in HC Adam Gase to give this offense a spark. He added Dowell Loggains to his coaching staff at OC/QB Coach. Now we’ve got a case where Darnold will have to learn a brand new offense and practically start from scratch. This offense will run through Gase as the playcaller, who utilizes a patient offense with some big plays sprinkled in. Not only does this type of offense let the quarterback get into a rhythm, it can lull the defense by combining slow pace with repeated short throws and checkdowns before opening things up over the top with a deep throw.
The Jets also aided the growth of Darnold by bringing in Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Kelechi Osemele to help the offense. Bell and Crowder should help greatly with short-to-intermediate targets, and Osemele should help improve a run-of-the-mill offensive line. Compared to last year’s unit, there’s a lot more reason for optimism with this squad entering 2019.
Robby Anderson’s 2019 Role
Another major reason for optimism, Robby Anderson looks like a receiver custom built for stretching the field in Gase’s offense. Over the past two years, Anderson has sported an average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.6 and 17.3. His yards per reception ranked top-20 each of the last two years. He also led the squad in both Air Yards and target share during this time frame. Anderson’s a big play waiting to happen.
As mentioned earlier, Gase’s offenses have been previously predicated on short, high-percentage throws with big plays over the top mixed in. Darnold sported a successful passer rating when targeting deep left (97.0), but his deep throwing still needs some improvement across the board.
Image courtesy of SharpFootballStats.com.
Anderson ranked top-six in the league in deep targets (20+ yards) last year, but only eight of his 30 deep targets were deemed “catchable”, per PFF. Of those eight catchable targets, Anderson hauled in seven for 267 receiving yards and four scores. Anderson will fill in the field-stretching role bringing 4.41 speed on a 6’-3” frame.
Multiple moving pieces on this offense make projecting this squad rather challenging. How much of Gase’s historic run/pass splits play a factor here on an entirely different squad? Does Le’Veon Bell’s addition warrant more carries? Can Darnold take the next step forward as a starting quarterback in Year 2? Does Gase’s snail-like pace travel with him to New York?
Assuming that the 2019 Jets inherit some of Gase’s slow pace of play and heavy run play calling, the overall passing volume for the Jets could be somewhat similar to last year’s number of dropbacks. Anderson had an 18% target share last season and a 22% target share the year before that. Bell and Crowder’s additions should sap additional target volume from Anderson, likely leaving him in the 18%-19% range this year. That puts him in line for roughly 95-100 targets and a stat line that should closely resemble 2018’s (50-752-6).
That would place Anderson in the late-end WR3 mix in terms of fantasy production. Coming off a WR39 fantasy season, that projection feels accurate. Anderson may see a minor dip in target volume this year, but his big play ability should turn the targets he does see into valuable ones. Another year building rapport with Darnold will help, but it’ll be up to Gase to get more out of Anderson rather than him just running “go” routes. Gase plans to develop Anderson into an “all-around receiver”, per Anderson.
Even if Anderson sees a more diverse role this year, a jump inside the top-24 among fantasy receivers feels lofty. We need to see Anderson improve greatly on his career catch numbers (54.2%) and it seems far-fetched for him to see garner enough volume without a significant injury opening up more targets. Top-30 seems like a more accurate fantasy ceiling for Anderson given his projected target volume, peripheral stats, and role in this offense.
Average Draft Position
Most fantasy fans remember Anderson’s final stretch to end last year. He sported a 20-312-3 receiving stat line during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16), coming in as the fantasy WR2 during this time period. After ending the year on a hot note, Anderson’s maintained a high fantasy ADP, with him currently going in the sixth round as WR31 on Fanball. Given the spike weeks that Anderson can provide, he makes for a strong option in Round 6 in bestball leagues. I’m still buying at this current cost given Anderson’s potential ceiling in any given week.
We’re seeing him get drafted as the WR30 in typical PPR redraft leagues, right around the Round 6/7 turn. Anderson in the seventh could lead to some high upside teams, even with the week-to-week volatility. Adding Anderson in a redraft league as a high upside receiver can be a strong move in rounding out your receiver corps.
In terms of dynasty, Anderson’s value looks to have climbed out of a former buying window.
Image courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com.
Seeing a 20-player jump in ADP over the past month, Anderson’s price looks like it’s on the rise. At 26 years old, there’s still plenty of reasons to buy Anderson, but I’d wait until preseason before making any moves. If Gase is true to his word and we see Anderson out there running all types of routes of varying depths in actual preseason games, Anderson will have only play volume and pace of play holding him back. Those things can change. A do-it-all role as the team’s No. 1 receiver is an extremely valuable fantasy role. If we see Anderson inherit this role in the preseason, I’d be rather aggressive in trade talks trying to make sure I get him on my squad before Week 1 kicks off.
