It seems every offseason there becomes more and more player movement in the NFL. Between free agency, trades, the draft and players getting released, there’s an immense amount of fluctuation surrounding target-shares and how teams will distribute targets. The goal of this article is to evaluate what teams looked like in 2018 and what changes to expect in the upcoming season. Since there’s a wide variety of positions that can affect how touches are distributed, all aspects of rushing and/or receiving could be evaluated in a given piece. The NFL is a complicated beast, but breaking it down piece-by-piece in this fashion can help lighten the load of evaluation.
Here’s how this piece will go. First, we’ll take a look at how things shook out in 2018. Focusing on targets, receptions and yards, and discuss any important factors involved that will be different in 2019. Then, we’ll take a look at the up-to-date depth chart for the 2019 season and make educated projections. Let’s dive in.
2018 Chicago Bears
Photo courtesy of profootballreference.com
The 2018 Bears running game was, well, not subtle. Jordan Howard ran the ball up the middle and between the tackles, and Tarik Cohen figured everything else out on screens and outside runs. By the end of the year, it became somewhat predictable, but overall, it was effective. Easily one of the biggest surprises was Mitchell Trubisky and his huge efforts running the ball. While a lot of Trubisky’s runs came on scrambles and other matchup advantage-based plays, it’s notable he was highly effective in these phases. The biggest issue the Bears (and a lot of NFL teams, for that matter) are going to face moving forward is the risk/reward of running their QB. Trubisky is obviously a value in the running game, but he was also incredibly banged up by the end of 2018 because of his 68 rushing attempts. The effectiveness, specifically in the regular season, can help win a game or two, but does it outweigh the risk of Trubisky getting seriously injured? We’ve seen this a lot over the last couple of years, between Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson. There’s a build up of major injuries occurring for QBs who take advantage of the running game. Overall, the offense was progressive in a lot of ways, and the running game benefitted. From a fantasy perspective, Howard was set up to fail because of the kinds of touches he received. Cohen ended up being a big winner, as his prominent role in the receiving game provided huge dividends. Also, staying healthy for 16 games was a huge win.
2019 CHICAGO BEARS
Photo courtesy of rotoworld.com
Well, the elephant in the room is that Howard is gone, of course. The Bears brought in a very similar RB in David Montgomery, who should pose similar threats in 2019. Montgomery was a third-round selection in the 2019 draft and profiles as a power back who can handle a significant workload if necessary. Montgomery tested out below average athletically across the board, but he was very productive at Iowa State and has a big frame that should be able to translate right away. After reviewing his profile, I came away seeing a prospect with shades of Shonn Greene when he was coming out of Iowa. While it’s tough to envision Montgomery stealing the receiving role away from Cohen, 200 touches in year one aren’t out of the question. Cohen should once again be the king of the castle (Borat reference, BOOM) in the receiving game, and especially with all the ways the Bears created space for him in 2018, it seems very unlikely teams will “figure” out Cohen with more film. His unique skill set is going to be hard to wrangle, regardless if teams have reads on his tendencies. The biggest question I have heading into the new season is how they’ll handle Trubisky. Trubisky ran in 2018 for a few reasons, two most notably. First, it was effective. When things work, it would make sense to continue to do them, and beyond the risk of injury, it’s very likely to be a positive move for the Bears again in 2019. Second, he was clearly still developing as a passer and sometimes struggled to read complex defenses, specifically when he got deeper into reads. A lot of pressure gets put on young QBs nowadays, and it’s important to remember Trubisky was only in his second season. Entering year three, it’d be smart to project at least some improvement as a passer, at least in terms of reading defenses, even if it doesn’t show up in his year-end totals. If Trubisky loses 20-25 rushing attempts off his 2018 totals, and that shifts to Cohen and Montgomery, that could have a noticeable effect for both from a ceiling standpoint.
