Happy Independence Day Fantasy Guru fam! I hope everyone has a safe and fun Fourth of July today. Before the fireworks and grilling (ribs, wings, hot dogs, and sausage is on the menu at my household this evening), some pigskin discussion is a must.
There are many factors that lead us to come up with our conclusion for player projections and rankings, one of them being volume. This is arguably one of the most important things we must account for because volume turns into opportunity, which can lead to fantasy points. A player’s role in an offense could ultimately determine the opportunities he may have on a particular season. The two key things to look for are touches and targets for wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.
When you put it into perspective, it truly does not matter how good a player is. If he is not being targeted or getting hand offs out of the backfield, he cannot score fantasy points. You can also look at it from the other side of the coin. A mediocre player could exceed expectations if he is receiving a ton of volume, simply because the opportunity is there. Granted, volume and opportunity don’t always turn into fantasy football gold, but it does put players in a good situation to possibly succeed. With that said, let’s jump right into it and take a look at some players receiving plenty of volume in recent years.
RUNNING BACKS
The chart below displays the top 20 running backs rush attempt leaders for the last three years, as well as targets, receptions, and total touches.
| 2018 Rush Att Leaders | 2017 Rush Att Leaders | 2016 Rush Att Leaders | ||||||||||||
| Player | Rush Att | Targets | Rec | Total Touches | Player | Rush Att | Targets | Rec | Total Touches | Player | Rush Att | Targets | Rec | Total Touches |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 304 | 91 | 77 | 381 | Le’Veon Bell | 321 | 103 | 85 | 406 | Ezekiel Elliott | 322 | 37 | 32 | 354 |
| Saquon Barkley | 261 | 114 | 91 | 352 | LeSean McCoy | 287 | 72 | 59 | 346 | LeGarrette Blount | 299 | 7 | 7 | 306 |
| David Johnson | 258 | 70 | 50 | 308 | Melvin Gordon III | 284 | 73 | 58 | 342 | David Johnson | 293 | 107 | 80 | 373 |
| Todd Gurley II | 256 | 76 | 59 | 315 | Todd Gurley II | 279 | 76 | 64 | 343 | DeMarco Murray | 293 | 64 | 53 | 346 |
| Adrian Peterson | 251 | 25 | 20 | 271 | Jordan Howard | 276 | 31 | 23 | 299 | Todd Gurley II | 278 | 55 | 43 | 321 |
| Jordan Howard | 250 | 26 | 20 | 270 | Kareem Hunt | 272 | 62 | 53 | 325 | Lamar Miller | 268 | 36 | 31 | 299 |
| Chris Carson | 247 | 22 | 20 | 267 | Leonard Fournette | 268 | 43 | 36 | 304 | Frank Gore | 263 | 44 | 38 | 301 |
| Joe Mixon | 236 | 54 | 43 | 279 | Frank Gore | 261 | 36 | 29 | 290 | Le’Veon Bell | 261 | 89 | 75 | 336 |
| Peyton Barber | 234 | 27 | 20 | 254 | C.J. Anderson | 245 | 35 | 28 | 273 | Jay Ajayi | 260 | 33 | 27 | 287 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 219 | 122 | 108 | 327 | Ezekiel Elliott | 242 | 33 | 26 | 268 | Melvin Gordon III | 254 | 53 | 41 | 295 |
| James Conner | 215 | 67 | 55 | 270 | Carlos Hyde | 240 | 83 | 59 | 299 | Jordan Howard | 252 | 46 | 29 | 281 |
| Derrick Henry | 215 | 18 | 15 | 230 | Lamar Miller | 238 | 42 | 36 | 274 | LeSean McCoy | 234 | 54 | 50 | 284 |
| Lamar Miller | 210 | 34 | 25 | 235 | Mark Ingram II | 230 | 65 | 58 | 288 | Devonta Freeman | 227 | 61 | 54 | 281 |
| Sony Michel | 209 | 11 | 7 | 216 | Latavius Murray | 216 | 17 | 15 | 231 | Jeremy Hill | 222 | 25 | 21 | 243 |
| Marlon Mack | 195 | 24 | 17 | 212 | Alex Collins | 212 | 32 | 23 | 235 | Matt Forte | 218 | 37 | 30 | 248 |
| Alvin Kamara | 194 | 98 | 81 | 275 | Jay Ajayi | 208 | 33 | 24 | 232 | Jonathan Stewart | 218 | 16 | 8 | 226 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 192 | 44 | 35 | 227 | Marshawn Lynch | 207 | 29 | 20 | 227 | Carlos Hyde | 217 | 32 | 27 | 244 |
| Nick Chubb | 192 | 28 | 20 | 212 | Isaiah Crowell | 206 | 39 | 28 | 234 | Spencer Ware | 214 | 42 | 33 | 247 |
| Kareem Hunt | 181 | 33 | 26 | 207 | Jonathan Stewart | 198 | 13 | 8 | 206 | Mark Ingram II | 205 | 52 | 46 | 251 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 175 | 61 | 50 | 225 | Devonta Freeman | 196 | 41 | 36 | 232 | Isaiah Crowell | 198 | 47 | 40 | 238 |
The first player that pops out at me from the chart above is my No. 1 overall pick in 2019, Ezekiel Elliott. Since entering the league, he has been a volume monster, leading all running backs in touches in two of his three seasons. The only year that he did not exceed 350 touches was in 2017 where he played just 10 games. However, he still managed 26.8 touches per game, which would have put him on pace for 428 total touches. There is no doubt in my mind that barring any injury, Elliott will once again be near the top, if not at the top, of this list at the end of the season. He has turned this opportunity into three top 12 fantasy season, including two top five years.
Other players that stand out at me are Lamar Miller and Jordan Howard. Both of these backs have finished at least top 13 in total touches over the last three years. For them, it has not turned into fantasy gold, but Howard has finished RB20 or better in each of those seasons, including a top 10 finish. While Miller has finished RB23 or better each of those years. Considering their ADP this season, they both are coming in at a fair price. Neither of them promises astronomical expectations, but considering their potential opportunity is worth noting. Even though Howard is on a new team, it is worth pointing out that the Eagles have averaged the sixth most rush attempts per game in the last five years.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The chart below displays the top 20 highest targeted wide receivers for the last three years.
| 2018 Target Leaders | 2017 Target Leaders | 2016 Target Leaders | |||
| Player | Targets | Player | Targets | Player | Targets |
| Julio Jones | 166 | DeAndre Hopkins | 164 | Mike Evans | 168 |
| Antonio Brown | 164 | Jarvis Landry | 156 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 161 |
| Davante Adams | 162 | Antonio Brown | 155 | Antonio Brown | 151 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 161 | Larry Fitzgerald | 153 | Larry Fitzgerald | 147 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 159 | Keenan Allen | 147 | Jordy Nelson | 146 |
| Adam Thielen | 149 | Julio Jones | 143 | Julian Edelman | 146 |
| Michael Thomas | 146 | Michael Thomas | 139 | Allen Robinson II | 144 |
| Stefon Diggs | 141 | Demaryius Thomas | 136 | T.Y. Hilton | 143 |
| Jarvis Landry | 137 | Adam Thielen | 135 | Michael Crabtree | 142 |
| Mike Evans | 135 | A.J. Green | 134 | Demaryius Thomas | 141 |
| Tyreek Hill | 129 | Mike Evans | 132 | DeAndre Hopkins | 138 |
| Robert Woods | 127 | Dez Bryant | 126 | Terrelle Pryor Sr. | 132 |
| Keenan Allen | 125 | Golden Tate | 117 | Golden Tate | 131 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 119 | Alshon Jeffery | 113 | Emmanuel Sanders | 131 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 116 | Doug Baldwin | 112 | Amari Cooper | 127 |
| Kenny Golladay | 115 | Robby Anderson | 111 | Julio Jones | 125 |
| Brandin Cooks | 110 | Brandin Cooks | 109 | Jarvis Landry | 122 |
| Corey Davis | 108 | Devin Funchess | 109 | Brandon Marshall | 121 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 107 | Davante Adams | 108 | Michael Thomas | 119 |
| Golden Tate | 105 | Marvin Jones Jr. | 105 | Davante Adams | 118 |
To no surprise, some of the top wide outs are at the top of this list most seasons. Antonio Brown has been a target monster, with over 150 targets in each of the last six seasons (2013-2015 numbers are not on the chart but he topped 150 targets in each of those seasons as well). DeAndre Hopkins has also been peppered with more than 150 targets in each of the last three years and in 2015 he was peppered with 192 targets. Julio Jones has topped 140 targets in four of the last five seasons, making him another consistently high-volume wide out. Aside from their talent, there is a reason these receivers flourish year in and year out, that’s because of the opportunity they receiving on a yearly basis.
Jarvis Landry is a familiar name in the chart above, making the top 20 in targets each year since 2016. He thrives off of volume and there might be some cause for concern this season, as another familiar name on this board will be lining up next to him and that is Odell Beckham Jr. There is a bright side to this however, and that is that the Browns attempted 35.4 pass attempts per game last season, which was good for 13th most in the league. Therefore, the possibility of both of these receivers seeing plenty of looks all season is possible. That said, I am tempering my expectations for Landry this season.
Corey Davis and Kenny Golladay both received over 100 targets in 2018 and that might be the floor as far as volume is concerned for each of them this upcoming season. These are two wide outs heading into the third year of their NFL career that could be poised for a breakout season. This is why these two being on this list sort of stand out to me. I am more bullish on Golladay, but like them both very much.
TIGHT ENDS
The chart below displays the top 15 highest targeted tight ends for the last three years.
| 2018 Target Leaders | 2017 Target Leaders | 2016 Target Leaders | |||
| Player | Targets | Player | Targets | Player | Targets |
| Zach Ertz | 154 | Travis Kelce | 117 | Greg Olsen | 122 |
| Travis Kelce | 139 | Evan Engram | 108 | Kyle Rudolph | 120 |
| George Kittle | 128 | Delanie Walker | 104 | Dennis Pitta | 116 |
| Eric Ebron | 108 | Zach Ertz | 102 | Travis Kelce | 114 |
| Jared Cook | 99 | Jack Doyle | 102 | Zach Ertz | 101 |
| Austin Hooper | 86 | Rob Gronkowski | 100 | Delanie Walker | 96 |
| David Njoku | 83 | Jimmy Graham | 92 | Jimmy Graham | 93 |
| Jimmy Graham | 83 | Jared Cook | 83 | Jason Witten | 91 |
| Jordan Reed | 78 | Eric Ebron | 81 | Jordan Reed | 85 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 76 | Jason Witten | 81 | Eric Ebron | 85 |
| Trey Burton | 73 | Benjamin Watson | 77 | Antonio Gates | 85 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 71 | Kyle Rudolph | 76 | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 82 |
| Vance McDonald | 67 | Cameron Brate | 73 | Charles Clay | 81 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 66 | Charles Clay | 72 | Coby Fleener | 80 |
| Evan Engram | 63 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 71 | Cameron Brate | 78 |
Based on the chart above, on average roughly five tight ends per season receive 100 or more targets. This could be a big reason as to why this is a position that is top heavy as far as fantasy production is concerned. To no surprise, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, the top two tight ends on most rankings across the industry this season, have been at the top or near the top of this list each of the last three years. Kelce is the consensus No. 1 tight end and rightfully so. Aside from already receiving over 110 targets in the past three seasons, he could be in for an even larger role now that Tyreek Hill’s status is in question. It’s worth noting that Hill accounted for 129 targets last season.
Kyle Rudolph is not the most exciting tight end nor is he a high upside player, but one thing is for sure, he receives a decent amount of looks each season. That has not always translated into elite production, however it is worth noting that he has been a top eight fantasy tight end in each of the last three years. Again, despite the lack of elite talent, Rudolph has been the beneficiary of opportunity. Evan Engram, who I am extremely high on this season, is another tight end that sees a good amount of volume and could see even more this season now that Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer on the team.
TEAM PASS ATTEMPTS PER GAME
The chart below displays pass attempts per game by each NFL team for the last five years.
| Team | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | Last 5yrs Average |
| Pittsburgh | 43.1 | 38.1 | 36.4 | 36.8 | 38.8 | 38.64 |
| New Orleans | 33.2 | 33.9 | 42.1 | 41.7 | 41.2 | 38.42 |
| New England | 36.8 | 38.3 | 36.5 | 40.4 | 39.2 | 38.24 |
| Baltimore | 34.4 | 35.4 | 42.4 | 42.2 | 34.9 | 37.86 |
| NY Giants | 36.4 | 38 | 37.8 | 38.9 | 37.9 | 37.8 |
| Philadelphia | 37.2 | 35.3 | 38.1 | 38.9 | 38.9 | 37.68 |
| Indianapolis | 39.6 | 30.4 | 36.5 | 38.7 | 41.1 | 37.26 |
| Detroit | 35.9 | 35.6 | 36.8 | 39.5 | 38 | 37.16 |
| Oakland | 34.8 | 34.9 | 37.7 | 37.8 | 39.3 | 36.9 |
| Green Bay | 40 | 35.1 | 39.4 | 36.3 | 33.6 | 36.88 |
| Atlanta | 38.6 | 33.1 | 33.4 | 38.8 | 39.5 | 36.68 |
| LA Chargers | 33.1 | 36.4 | 36.2 | 41.7 | 35.9 | 36.66 |
| Denver | 36.8 | 35.4 | 35.6 | 36.7 | 38.4 | 36.58 |
| Tampa Bay | 39.1 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 35.92 |
| Arizona | 30.9 | 37.4 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.92 |
| Jacksonville | 33.5 | 32.2 | 39.1 | 37.9 | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| Cleveland | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.4 | 38.1 | 31.4 | 35.34 |
| Washington | 31.8 | 33.8 | 37.9 | 35.4 | 34.2 | 34.62 |
| Miami | 28.4 | 37.6 | 30.2 | 36.8 | 37.2 | 34.04 |
| Houston | 32.6 | 32.8 | 36 | 38.4 | 30.3 | 34.02 |
| Minnesota | 37.9 | 34.2 | 36.8 | 28.1 | 32.3 | 33.86 |
| NY Jets | 32.8 | 31.9 | 34.4 | 37.8 | 31.1 | 33.6 |
| Chicago | 32.6 | 29.6 | 34.9 | 32.7 | 38.1 | 33.58 |
| Carolina | 35.2 | 31.9 | 35.2 | 31.2 | 34.1 | 33.52 |
| Kansas City | 36.4 | 33.9 | 34.1 | 30.3 | 30.8 | 33.1 |
| San Francisco | 33.2 | 37.9 | 30.7 | 32.9 | 30.4 | 33.02 |
| Cincinnati | 33.9 | 31.9 | 35.2 | 32.1 | 31.7 | 32.96 |
| LA Rams | 35.5 | 33.1 | 33.5 | 29.6 | 32.2 | 32.78 |
| Tennessee | 27.3 | 31.3 | 31.5 | 34.4 | 32.1 | 31.32 |
| Dallas | 32.9 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 33 | 29.2 | 31.3 |
| Buffalo | 31.2 | 30.4 | 29.6 | 29.1 | 36.2 | 31.3 |
| Seattle | 26.7 | 34.7 | 34.8 | 31.3 | 27.7 | 31.04 |
There is a reason why I think JuJu Smith-Schuster will be very good this season and that is because he is in a pass first offense. As you can see by the chart above, the Steelers have averaged the most pass attempts per game since 2014. Ben Roethlisberger is being drafted as QB15 on average, making him decent value considering how often he slings it. The Saints are also up there on this list, but it is worth noting that over the last two seasons, this offense has taken a major step backwards in pass attempts per game. This has impacted Drew Brees, as he has now attempted fewer than 600 passes in each of the last two season, after tossing 600+ passes in nine of his previous 10 seasons.
The Colts are a team that also pass a ton, especially with Andrew Luck under center, which is why I have him ranked No. 1 overall at his position. In addition to the opportunity, there is no denying how talented of a quarterback he is.
TEAM RUSH ATTEMPTS PER GAME
The chart below displays rush attempts per game by each NFL team for the last five years.
| Team | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | Last 5yrs Average |
| Houston | 28.7 | 28 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 34.5 | 29.9 |
| Carolina | 26 | 30.4 | 28.3 | 33.2 | 30.2 | 29.62 |
| Buffalo | 29.2 | 30.5 | 30.8 | 31.8 | 25.1 | 29.48 |
| Seattle | 32.8 | 25.6 | 25.7 | 30 | 32.5 | 29.32 |
| Dallas | 27.5 | 30 | 30.8 | 25.5 | 31 | 28.96 |
| Philadelphia | 24.4 | 29.6 | 27.4 | 27.6 | 29.8 | 27.76 |
| NY Jets | 25.6 | 26.7 | 26.1 | 28 | 31.7 | 27.62 |
| New England | 31.2 | 27.2 | 29.5 | 23 | 26.9 | 27.56 |
| Baltimore | 33.5 | 28.8 | 22.9 | 23.9 | 27.8 | 27.38 |
| San Francisco | 26.4 | 25.5 | 28.6 | 24.4 | 29.4 | 26.86 |
| Cincinnati | 22.4 | 23.6 | 27.9 | 28.9 | 30.2 | 26.6 |
| Denver | 24.6 | 28.6 | 25.6 | 26.4 | 27.2 | 26.48 |
| Minnesota | 22.3 | 30.4 | 23.8 | 29.6 | 25.8 | 26.38 |
| New Orleans | 29.1 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 25.4 | 26.34 |
| LA Rams | 29 | 27.6 | 23.4 | 26.8 | 24.7 | 26.3 |
| Tennessee | 28.5 | 27.2 | 29.8 | 23.2 | 22.2 | 26.18 |
| Chicago | 28.6 | 26.4 | 23.8 | 29.2 | 22.2 | 26.04 |
| Indianapolis | 25.4 | 28.2 | 25.6 | 24.8 | 25.6 | 25.92 |
| Jacksonville | 26 | 33.1 | 24.5 | 22.1 | 22.6 | 25.66 |
| Kansas City | 24 | 24.8 | 25.1 | 28.1 | 26.2 | 25.64 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.3 | 24.4 | 28.3 | 28.4 | 22.1 | 25.5 |
| Washington | 25.9 | 25.1 | 23.7 | 26.3 | 25.1 | 25.22 |
| LA Chargers | 24.6 | 26.2 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 24.9 | 25.04 |
| Cleveland | 25.7 | 24 | 21.9 | 23.8 | 29.8 | 25.04 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.6 | 26.8 | 26.2 | 24.2 | 26 | 24.96 |
| Atlanta | 21.9 | 27.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 23.2 | 24.94 |
| NY Giants | 22.1 | 24.6 | 24.4 | 25.2 | 28.1 | 24.88 |
| Arizona | 22.2 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 27.1 | 24.2 | 24.8 |
| Green Bay | 20.8 | 24.1 | 22.8 | 27.2 | 27.4 | 24.46 |
| Oakland | 24.2 | 23.1 | 26.8 | 23.1 | 21.1 | 23.66 |
| Miami | 23.2 | 22.5 | 25.1 | 21.5 | 24.9 | 23.44 |
| Detroit | 25.2 | 22.7 | 21.5 | 22.1 | 24.6 | 23.22 |
The Texans have been a consistent run first offense in each of the last three seasons. This is another reason why Lamar Miller is appealing to me at his current cost. The offensive line in Houston is not that good, which is concerning of course, but that is not stopping them from moving the rock on the ground. Philadelphia is another team that has implemented a run-heavy offense and even though they abandoned the run last season, when they had a north and south runner such as LeGarrette Blount in 2017, they were sixth in rush attempts per game. This season they have a similar back in Jordan Howard, so Coach Doug Pederson could elect to go back to the run first approach.
Seattle is a team that abandoned the run in 2016 and 2017, but went back to this style of offense in 2018. Chris Carson led this backfield in 2018 with 247 carries for 1,151 yard and he is the favorite at the lead back position for the Seahawks. That said, Rashaad Penny is very interesting to me this year, as I believe the team will give him more opportunities in his second year in the league. Both of these backs could see a decent amount of opportunities to succeed this season.
MY THOUGHTS
Although volume is not the be all end all determining factor when I am ranking my players or choosing them on draft day, it is a stat that I place plenty of emphasis on. With the information above, you now have the top targeted receivers and tight ends over the last three years, which should present to you what kind of opportunities you can expect for these players. The same can be said about the rush attempts for the running backs.
Even more important than individual players’ opportunities is the type of offense these players are in. This is why I also included rush attempts and pass attempts per game from each team for the last five years. Keep in mind, coaching and coordinator changes will affect these numbers, so you must account for that. With that being said, the information should still give you some perspective as to what you could expect, as well as trends as to how offenses have changed over the last several years.
Targets and rush attempts is one of the key things I look at when I begin my yearly research and I cannot stress enough on how important these two stats are. Ultimately, understanding the two will give you an idea on the role a player has on their team and how that could turn into fantasy production.
Alright folks, it has been fun. Stay safe today. As always, you can find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal and/or catch me in the chat room with any questions.
