Is Aaron Nola finally back? Where you one of the lucky few who turned away from the haters this draft season and rostered David Price? Just what is going on with James Paxton given the lack of punchouts? Is Chase Anderson worth a look in mixed leagues? Trevor Bauer just can’t seem to put it all together. Why? A review of Dylan Cease’s MLB debut is offered. Patrick Corbin has, predictably, regressed from his 2018 levels. Does Jose De Leon deserve to be on fantasy radar’s? Rich Hill was transferred to the 60 day-IL. Dallas Keuchel is searching for some mph’s. Joe Musgrove has really settled in of late for the Pirates. What in the hell is wrong with Matt Strahm? How has Ross Stripling looked as a starter? Trent Thornton suffering some AL East growing pains. Finally, Jesus Luzardo suffers yet another setback.
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Chase Anderson has allowed two homers in four games. He’s also walked three in three. However, that hides the fact that he’s really nothing other than league average. He has allowed four runs, three earned, in two outings, but that’s still 10 runs over 16 innings. One thing Anderson is doing extremely well is dominating lefties with a .171/.242/.306 slash line. Righties on the other hand, have been blast city against Anderson with a massive .303/.374/.553 line. You cannot be successful as a starter if that happens.
Trevor Bauer continues to rack up innings (125) and strikeouts (140), and the 1.18 WHIP would be the second-best mark of his career, yet he keeps leaving his owners wanting more. He’s only walked three batters his last three starts, but in two of the efforts he’s allowed five runs and at least 10 hits. The result of the three games is a 2.16 HR/9 rate, 24 hits in 16.2 innings, a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Lefties have produced some issues for him this season, that .472 SLG is high, and he’s changed up his pitch mix a bit increasing cutter usage by about 5.6 percent while dropping his curveball usage by seven percent. The cutter OPS is .715, a three-year low, though his curveball mark of .445 is elite and more than .100 points below were the mark was the last two years. Maybe the change isn’t working and he should revert to the curve a bit more?
Dylan Cease update (Player Profile). After watching his effort Wednesday, the first of his career, here are some of my thoughts. (1) The curveball is indeed impressive. He got swings and misses on the hammer, and it was easily his best pitch. (2) The fastball velocity was consistently in the 95-98 range, and there is no disputing that the pitch has tremendous life and just jumps out of his hand. (3) He had no control of the fastball at all as he was consistently well up in the zone with the pitch. I mean, like no control. It was up, up and up. It took him 69 pitches to get a mere nine outs to start the effort, but he did settle in. (4) Because of the lack of fastball control, the Tigers were able to get off some pretty decent swings at Cease’s offerings, proving that no matter how good your stuff is, if you can’t locate it effectively that you are going to have some struggles. (5) The seeds of tremendous success were easily seen in the effort. I loved his demeanor on the hill and in the dugout as he was calm, listened, and clearly didn’t seem to be overwhelmed by the moment in the least. However, over his last six starts the numbers are hideous: 7.66 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 6.45 BB/9 and 11.7 hits per nine.
Patrick Corbin has dropped his career-high slider usage last season of 41 percent down to 36 percent this season as he’s added seven percent to his fastball rate (55.4 percent). Let’s see how both pitches have performed. The slider is still rocking as an elite offering with a .481 OPS, just above his .476 career mark. Meanwhile, the fastball is getting mashed to the tune of a .951 OPS which is .101 points above his career mark. Just like Bauer, perhaps the change enacted here hasn’t exactly had the desired effect? Compared to last season his first pitch strike rate is down 3.4 percent, his swinging strike rate is down 2.8 percent, while his O-swing rate is down 3.5 percent. Predictably, he’s regressed a bit from his career season of 2018.
Jose De Leon has been activated from the IL and was sent to Triple-A by the Rays. A one-time elite level prospect with the Dodgers, he is finally ready to return to action after Tommy John surgery. His stuff was diminished prior to the elbow injury, but there is some hope that the reworking of his arm will allow some of that stuff to return. Already 26 years old, he could be worth a look in AL-only leagues if he gets a call up in the second half.
Rich Hill has been transferred to the 60-day DL with that forearm strain. He won’t be eligible to return until mid-August. We will see if that’s gonna happen as there is still very little clarity as to what his return date actually will be.
Dallas Keuchel has made three starts for the Braves. His heater is coming in at a career low 87.8 mph (compared to 89.3 last season), his slider is a mph down from last year, and ditto his cutter. He really could stand to get that velocity back. It’s certainly possible he will with innings. Interestingly, he simply hasn’t trusted his slider at all to date. He thrown the pitch at least 18 percent of the time each of the past six years, and through three outings he’s just under 11 percent with the pitch. If he doesn’t find that pitch, trouble lies ahead.
Jesus Luzardo has a Grade 2 lat strain and he’s being shut down for the moment. There is no current ETA being offered, but it seems likely that he will be out of action for all of July, if not longer, and then he will have to basically start all over against. Best case for Luzardo at this point is likely late August, though he might end up being a September call up to help out of the bullpen at this point.
Joe Musgrove threw three scoreless Tuesday night before rains ruined his outing. That’s 9-scoreless innings his last two, and one run over his last three efforts as he hasn’t walked a batter while punching out 17 over 16 innings. He has yet to figure out lefties, that .295/.326/.491 slash line shows that, but he has been on his game of late. Folks keep waiting for a breakout, I’ve never really seen that as likely to happen, but he appears to be in a very nice groove at the moment.
Aaron Nola is back. Is it too early to say that? Probably, but it’s looking good. After struggling for consistency nearly all season, the righty has really been locked in his last three starts. He’s worked at least seven innings in each outing allowing two runs, one earned, with a whopping 28 punchouts in 23 innings. That’s 4-of-5 games with a quality starts for the 2018 ace. Things are finally looking up for the second half.
James Paxton bounced back from a beating against the Jays to toss six innings of one run ball against the Mets last time out. However, strangeness abounds he struck out just three batters giving him consecutive games with a mere three punchouts, the first time since 2016 that has happened in back-to-back starts. That’s a mirage, he still has a 13.7 percent swinging strike rate, but it does deserve to be pointed out that since June began the lefty has made six starts with 25 punchouts in 28.2 innings. Don’t know if it’s the knee, a mechanical thing or something else, but that’s a mere 7.85 K/9 rate with a 12.0 swinging strike rate. He just hasn’t been putting batters away enough lately.
David Price is 6-2, but his last loss was on April 27th. Over his last 10 starts he’s 5-0 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, 9.68 strikeouts per nine and 2.05 walks per nine. I, along with many, had grave concerns with Price throughout the 2017 campaign. He rebounded strongly last season, leading to my rostering him in various leagues this season as he just kept falling on draft day. Hopefully you listened to that advice and rostered Price yourself as he’s having a very Price-like campaign for the Red Sox.
Matt Strahm will end up on the disabled list – watch. The guy is an absolute disaster at the moment so an injury will be created, or, perhaps there really is something physical going on with him. Strahm has pitched about as poorly as you possibly could his last five starts with no end in sight: 11 homers, 35 hits and 28 runs over 23.2 innings. Can’t say he’s even rosterable at this point.
Ross Stripling hasn’t been very sharp in his two starts of late. In those two outings Stripling has allowed six runs, five earned, over a mere 7.2 frames. He’s punched out 11 batters which is great, but he hasn’t been overly effective as he’s tried to give the Dodgers some length. Still like the arm, and as he gets stretched out the results should improve.
Trent Thornton was rocked last time out allowing seven runs to the Red Sox, and the time before that the Yankees got him for five (that’s 12 runs over six innings). Pitching in the AL East is rough for anyone, especially for a young hurler. Lefties have bombed him for a .520 SLG, and he’s been hideous at home with a .396 wOBA.
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