Structural advantages were something we discussed a while ago, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts and ideas that can work, but having a strong grasp of how the wheel is turning can create awareness for why things are working the way they are.
More roster evaluation! As soon as I wrote the first roster-based evaluation piece, it instantly became clear this was a great way to frame an article. While I have my opinions on roster building, this type of thought practice creates a scenario where I’m “telling” my option, but also shows just how versatile dynasty strategy can be. There are many ways to building a winning dynasty roster, and through tons of experience through playing, I’ve learned a lot of these principles. If I learned from other league-mates and seeing strategies “pass” or “fail” over multiple years, why not bring Guru Subs along for the ride with that type of thought process evolution?
I got a few emails this week of rosters to evaluate, and it made me happy. To all those that reached out, I appreciate you. For this week, we’re going to evaluate Tony Buttitta’s (@TButtitta on Twitter) Roster. As soon as I saw the construction, I thought it’d be a great construction to run through from a strategy standpoint. You’ll see why soon enough.
If you have ideas for this article or want your roster evaluated in a future piece, shoot me an email: rclay636@gmail.com (If wanting a roster evaluation, along with sending the full roster, post league setup, roster size and scoring settings)
ROSTER EVALUATION PRACTICE
- Format: Bestball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 18 (With increased rosters in offseason)
- Starting Lineup Spots: 8 (+ Kicker/Defense)
- QB – 1
- RB – 2-3
- WR – 3-4
- TE – 1-2
- K – 1
- D – 1
- Scoring – Standard
Tony Buttitta’s Roster
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Le’Veon Bell
Aaron Jones
Mark Ingram
D’Onta Foreman
Peyton Barber
Chris Warren III
Dion Lewis
Darrel Williams
John Kelly
Michael Thomas
Julio Jones
AJ Green
Marvin Jones
Tyrell Williams
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Tre’Quan Smith
Equanimeous St Brown
Josh Reynolds
George Kittle
Dallas Goedert
Justin Tucker
EXTRA NOTES: Owns 1.03 and 1.04 in 2019 Rookie Draft
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate in a week-to-week setting, over 16 weeks?
Critique: First of all, Kicker and Defense get a negative perception in fantasy football these days, and while I do agree those positions are annoying, the extra element can be a potential advantage for those who are diligent. By owning Justin Tucker, that’s legitimately a weekly advantage on the competition. Two or three points per week don’t sound like a lot, but over a season, those extra points increase a team ceiling and help you sneak by in some matchups you otherwise wouldn’t. This goes for redraft and dynasty — gaining an edge, no matter how small, is not trivial. Defense is a little bit more difficult to hone in on, but it’s important as well.
ANYHOW, to the meat and potatoes of this roster. I LOVE it. Despite preaching going young in startups, I think it’s INCREDIBLY important to emphasize knowing the window of a team. This is a win-now roster that’s built to win and has a lot of players aligned for a run in the 2019 season. While it’s important to have insurance policies if nightmare (injuries) strike, going for the win in the current season should always be a focus.
Instead of looking at positions, let’s look at assets first. Between Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, there’s a lot of sunk cost pieces. All these players are well past their prime in perceived/market value and are fully in “ride them until the wheels come off” mode. The week-to-week value of this group so far outweighs their value in a trade; the only correct move is to build around them, and as pieces fall off, have young replacements waiting in the wings. Between Brady and Brees, the inevitable idea of retirement has to be around the corner, but this has been the speculation for the last five years. Those two have been some of the biggest values in dynasty formats over the last decade, and with very little drop off in skill, it’s conceivable that they continue to play for another two or three seasons (Though counting on that is not advisable). Bell and Jones still have ok trade value, but with this roster, they serve a big purpose of pushing things over the top for the next two seasons. Ingram and Green are perfect for this team and are solid candidates to sustain themselves for multiple years fantasy-wise as veterans, even if they aren’t what they once were.
Considering that, QB is set to win, and Jimmy Garopplo is a great boom/bust QB3 that could bridge the gap if Brady and Brees both retire in the next couple of years. This will be a position that requires diligence. Something I’ve found highly profitable in one QB leagues is to draft the position in the third or fourth round of rookie drafts. Players like Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes (I swear), Deshaun Watson (I am not lying), Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen have all been pushed down rookie draft boards in favor of RBs, WRs, and TEs, and while there’s no huge disagreement from me, slowly but surely stockpiling these types can pay huge dividends, or at the very least, be startable in a pinch. Daniel Jones was a main focus for me in rookie drafts this year. The negative perception of the Giants, along with the perception that he was a reach where he was drafted has made his price bordering on free. Adding a Jones type to this core would be perfect. If not this year, then finding a QB in the 2020 draft would be advisable (And easy).
RB is top-heavy, and there are avenues to where this could be an issue midseason. This team NEEDS Bell, Aaron Jones and Ingram to stay healthy, and with RB injury rates, that seems unlikely. Since you only have to start two, it should be fine, but in optimal conditions, I like going into the season with four RBs that are clear-cut starters. Also, the bench isn’t too exciting. D’onta Foreman is the one guy that has high upside, and now that he’s over a year removed from that Achilles injury, there are reasonable avenues to having positive fantasy expectations for him. The rest is a bunch of “Well, I guess I’d rather five points than zero” territory, which isn’t, well, optimal.
WR is a thing of beauty. The mix of youth and high-end win-now assets is perfect, and there’s a lot of avenues to this team having the top scoring WRs in the league. Michael Thomas is one of the most valuable dynasty assets, garnering potential huge returns in a trade or being an elite starter in a weekly lineup. Personally, I’ve traded Thomas on my teams simply because of the market value, but holding and reaping the benefits with a win-now team is smart. Between Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams, I’m not too excited about either as dynasty assets, but since they’re on the roster, they should be able to plug right in on weird weeks and provide high upside in a spot-start situation. The real gold is the stacking of draft position with Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk and Tre’Quan Smith. Three young WRs drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, with intriguing college production/athletic profiles, on offenses where there’s plenty of opportunity to emerge. If one of those WRs can emerge this year as a weekly starter behind the horrifying Thomas/Jones/Green combo, this team is almost guaranteed a top-two seed for the playoffs.
There’s not too much to discuss with TE. George Kittle is a stud, and while I’d certainly think about trying to trade out of his current market value, he should still provide a weekly advantage at the position. Kittle is a highly sought after asset, and there’s a lot of avenues to building up the future assets of the roster with him. A move I’d try to make is offering Kittle for players like Evan Engram or O.J. Howard, and try to get future firsts along with it. Dallas Goedert is a decent backup, but it’d be important to get some depth at the position before the season starts, even if it’s a few win-now vets like Delanie Walker or Greg Olsen. This is another position to exploit in rookie drafts. Because TEs don’t produce early on in careers (other than a select few), there’s a general adherence to selecting them in the top three rounds of rookie drafts, specifically in the third. When the top three round (of the NFL draft) RBs and WRs dry up, don’t be afraid to snag some TEs.
A really important note of context is owning 1.03 and 1.04 in the upcoming rookie draft. This will fill out a solid amount of depth from an asset standpoint, and considering how high the picks are, there should be reasonable expectations for them as contributors in year one. While I’d almost always suggest going best player available in every situation, this team needs RBs badly, and selecting one with those two picks is arguably essential. Either way, these are important assets to add to this team.
Overall Grade: A-
This team knows what it is. The set of veterans should be able to sustain high-end results for the next two seasons at a minimum, and there are enough young assets on the team to sustain some of them falling off in performance. Thomas and Kittle create a nice insurance policy if ever in need of increased flexibility. Those players are worth roughly three future first-round rookie picks each, so while depth doesn’t appear to be a strength, it’s there whenever it’s wanted. There’s certainly some weakness in depth at QB, RB and TE, but the rookie draft should be able to take care of a lot of those concerns. Fun stuff.
