Paul Goldschmidt has been a mess this season. Is there any hope? Ray then turns to the arms. Bieber is surging. Luzardo is hurt, again. Mahle, Matz, Mikolas… which of the M’s is worthy of a roster spot on your team. Richard and Sanchez with the Jays, is either worth a mixed league look. Stanek continues to have success, while at the same time offering middling fantasy value. A check in with Syndergaard. Is it time to admit he’s just solid but never gonna be great?
THE GOLDSCHMIDT ISSUE
Paul Goldschmidt was a top-25 selection in nearly every draft this season.
As of this writing, he’s scratching and clawing to be a top-25 first baseman.
So, what the hell has happened?
Paul has a 90.1 mph exit velocity. That’s a five-year low but only 0.7 lower than last season.
Paul has a 41.1 percent hard-hit rate. That’s a five-year low but it still way above the 34.3 percent mark of the league.
Paul has a 13.6 launch angle. That’s the second highest mark in five years and slightly above his 12.9 percent mark.
Paul has a 1.17 GB/FB ratio. His career mark is 1.26.
Paul has a 17.3 percent HR/FB ratio, 3.2 percent below his career mark, and well below the 23+ percent mark he posted in 2016-17.
Paul has a 0.45 BB/K rate, just off his 0.52 mark of last season. However, his walk rate is a seven-year low, and the K-rate an eight-year high. Close, but off. His 10.8 percent swinging strike rate is his worst mark since his rookie season, but the mark has been over 10 percent each of the last two seasons, so he’s not that far off this season.
After 4-straight years under 25 percent in the chasing pitches outside the strike zone, the mark rose to 28.8 percent last season and this year it’s even higher at 30.1 percent. The league average is 31 percent, so it’s not a terrible number, but it is up for Goldy and does speak to the fact that he’s been expanding his strike zone.
Goldschmidt is off, and his month of June was horrid (.181/.274/.309).
Is there any hope?
1 – He struggled last season for a large period of time but still had a very impressive season. In May of 2018 Paul hit .144/.252/.278. He still went .290-33-83-95 overall with a .389 OBP and .533 SLG. Now, we shouldn’t be expecting such a massive run this year as he had last, but the point is, he’s rebounded before.
2 – He’s a six-time All-Star and one of the better right-handed hitters in the game.
3 – Though he has missed expectations significantly in ‘19, there are still seeds here of future success. After all, despite all the struggles, Paul is still on pace for 28 homers and 90 runs scored – while being awful.
4 – Though he’s off, there is nothing that seems like catastrophic failure is the word of the day. He’s also just 31 years old, so while some skills slippage is reasonable, he’s far from being at an age where everything should start falling apart.
5 – He’s in a new city, trying to justify a contract extension, and he likely pressed a bit. When the performance didn’t pick up, he likely pressed a bit more, and the self-fulfilling prophecy of failure was off and running.
If you own Paul, do not drop him.
If you own Paul, there’s little incentive to deal him given that the return is going to be low.
If you don’t own Paul, there is incentive to make that proverbial low-ball offer, add him to your stable, and patiently wait for the turnaround to occur. There should be a turnaround, though it’s best to look for it to be mild rather than nutso like it was last season.
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THE ARMS
Shane Bieber allowed 13 runs over 13.2 innings in three starts, and folks were getting a wee bit nervous. He’s rebounded extremely well the last four games allowing a total of seven earned runs. In those four, Bieber hasn’t allowed a homer, walked three and struck out a whopping 37 batters. That run has pushed his strikeout and walk numbers to absolutely elite levels: 11.47 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 5.78 K/BB ratio. He’s the owner if an impressive 14.6 swinging strike rate supporting the mighty impressive strikeout numbers.
Jesus Luzardo appeared to have suffered a setback Tuesday night. Scheduled to throw six innings, he toss four innings and just 45 pitches before he was removed from the game with a left lat muscle issue. More tests are being run before anything definitive will be known, but this appears to be another hiccup on the road to big-league success for the tremendously talented hurler.
Two of the bigger young stars in the game have been called up recently in Brendan McKay (Player Profile)and Dylan Cease (Player Profile).
Tyler Mahle continues to chew up innings for the Reds effectively. He’s struck out 92 batters in 88.2 frames, and the 2.23 BB/9 rate is impressive. He, likely many others these days, is really dealing with issues with the deep ball. He’s allowed two homers in each of his last two outings to push his homer mark all the way up to 1.73 per nine. Interestingly, the homer per nine rate is passable at the bandbox in Cincy at 1.35 per nine, but the mark on the road is a ghastly 1.95 as his homer to fly ball rate away from home is massive at 24.5 percent.
Steven Matz has been sent to the bullpen, and it’s unclear if he will remain there, or be reinserted into the rotation in the second half (Manager Mickey Callaway said that they expect Matz to return to the rotation but “we’ll adjust that if we need to.”). Matz has allowed 14 runs his last 11.1 innings allowing five homers and 19 hits. Overall, he has a 1.48 WHIP, a 2.69 K/BB ratio and a massive 2.03 HR/9 rate. He doesn’t have much of a case to be in the rotation at this point.
Miles Mikolas continues to stabilize. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 6-of-7 outings, has walked three men in four games, and has allowed just a single homer in three games. The strikeouts haven’t been there though, as expected, as he has exactly four strikeouts in 5-straight contests. Solid is as solid does.
The Phillies announced that Vince Velasquez will start against the Mets Friday, Jake Arrieta Saturday and Aaron Nola Sunday. The only guy you can start with any confidence is Nola.
Clayton Richard has a quality start in 2-straight allowing one walk in each outing for the Jays. He’s also struck out five batters and allowed three homers. Just not much to see here.
Jeff Samardzija has walked two or fewer batters in 8-straight starts. He’s allowed four homers in seven starts. Those are some pretty positive results. Alas, he’s allowed five runs in 2-of-3 starts and just can’t seem to get past league average. The 9.3 percent swinging strike rate is subpar, and he’s generating about a percent less swings on pitches outside the strike zone. Not much to suggest the future will be appreciably different.
Aaron Sanchez just give up. I’m sorry, but for a guy with this much pure stuff, the results are bafflingly awful. That’s 18 starts this season with a 3-11 record, a 6.31 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 5.38 walks per nine. Since the start of last season, he’s made 37 starts and hasn’t even thrown 190-innings. In those 186.1 innings he has a 5.51 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 5.09 xFIP, 5.12 BB/9 and 1.64 WHIP. It’s time to try him in the bullpen.
Ryne Stanek has made 53 “starts” the last two seasons as The Opener for the Rays. As a result, he has only two victories, two holds and no saves. He’s useless in mixed fantasy as a result. Still, he has been a heck of a hurler for the Rays over 114 innings with a 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 0.87 HR/9 and a 10.42 K/9. He’s a solid AL-only play.
Noah Syndergaard’s last 255 innings (since the start of last season): 18-8. That’s great. The rest = slightly disappointing. With 253 strikeouts in 255 innings he has an 8.93 K/9 rate. He has a 1.22 WHIP. He has walked 2.33 batters per nine. He has a 0.74 HR/9 rate. Nothing is bad at all, but those are not the numbers of a supposedly dominant right arm.
The Yankees will welcome back Domingo German (hip) from the IL to start Wednesday. Here is how the Yankees rotation will play out rest of the way until the ASB: J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and James Paxton.
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