Figuring out which hitters should improve and have strong second halves is not as easy as just looking to see who struggled in the first half. Oftentimes, someone who hasn’t been hitting his typical season pace has had some sort of injury affecting their performance and that’s a theme you’ll note below, minus a couple exceptions. Digging in to these players’ advanced metrics can often help tell the story, but also reading stories you might be able to find where they discuss their struggles or perhaps injuries they’ve been playing with helps color in our picture with more concrete facts. There may be some misses on the list below and injury bugs could certainly strike. But with the assumption of full health moving forward, here are a few hitters I’d be interested in for the second half of the season.
Mookie Betts (OF, Red Sox)
It’s very likely that no intelligent fantasy manager is dealing Betts, but everyone has their price. Coming off a monster 32 HR, 30 SB season where he hit .346, Betts was the consensus #2 pick, and was even taken first in some drafts. As we head into the All-Star break, there are more than two dozen hitters currently outperforming him. This time last year, Betts was hitting .359. With a current 5×5 line of 13 HR – 69 R – 37 RBI – 10 SB – .265, there is much to be desired from here on out, but the inevitable explosion is coming. As it stands, runs are the only category he’s exceptional in. Betts’ ISO is down from last season (from .294 to .191) but looking back, that .294 mark in 2018 was the outlier. He’s basically between .180 and .220 for most of his career. So, with 13 homers currently, we should probably not expect 30 homers this season, but it’s possible. He’s below pace in stolen bases, and that’s the one category I’d expect him to push with in the second half. His 16 percent walk rate is a stark improvement from the previous three seasons (7% in 2016, 11% in 2017, 13% in 2018) and the more often he’s on base, the better chance there is of him running. There are very few hitters I’d rather have for the remainder of the season (Trout, Bellinger, Yelich) but it’s possible you can centerpiece a deal around someone like Josh Bell for him. The Red Sox will certainly heat up in the second half and Betts will once again be a big reason why.
Jose Altuve (2B, Astros)
He is 29 years old now and has dealt with a handful of injuries over the past calendar year that may give us reason for concern. A surgically-repaired knee will always be something to worry about and the recent hamstring issue that caused an IL stint is a big reason behind the low SB total (just two so far). The main reason I’m buying Altuve if I get the chance is that I’m betting on health in the second half. A healthy Altuve is legitimately the best hitter in baseball. At least that’s what he’s been since 2014, hitting no lower than .313 in any season since and hitting over .330 three times in that span. He’s currently at .269 – far below his career rate of .314 – and has brought it up from .258 just over the last two games where he accumulated seven hits. Altuve has arguably the most valuable lineup slot in baseball, hitting second between Springer and Bregman. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Altuve hit .350 from here on out, adding in about 12 to 15 steals and another 10 homers. But it’s primarily that batting average and runs scored that will be most valuable. The Astros have a fantastic schedule on paper these next couple of months and if there are no more setbacks with the knee or hamstring, I’m expecting big things from him from here on out.
Khris Davis (UT, athletics)
Everyone knows that Davis hit .247 in each of the last four seasons so it doesn’t appear like a big deal when you see he’s currently at .245. The problem is he is way below pace in homers and it appears as though Matt Chapman is their main man. Just 16 so far after khrushing 48, 43 and 42 the past three years. This All-Star break can’t come at a better time for Davis who has been nursing a minor hand injury – something that most definitely is affecting his ability to hit. Earlier this season, Davis hit the IL for an oblique issue – something that he had been dealing with for a few weeks prior. There are very few injuries more bothersome for hitters than obliques, so his struggles over the past six weeks or so make sense. Davis could certainly use the break to get some rest and get ready for a big second half. He would have to hit 24 dingers to make it four straight seasons of 40 and it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities considering he hit 27 in 64 games after the break last year. He’s the difference maker in the power department you want to buy low on while you still can.
Lorenzo Cain (OF, brewers)
Cain is 33 but not yet done as a contributor on the big-league level. He is on pace for his last two season’s run totals (90, 86) with 48 so far but those are numbers he may not reach if he continues to hit sixth in the lineup like he has over the last couple of weeks. Much of that is because Yasmani Grandal is a base-on-balls machine and has been doing well atop the lineup. Cain could get back up there, but he’ll have to start hitting a bit more consistently. Cain’s .288 BABIP may not seem horrible but it’s a big drop from his average over the last three seasons (.347) and that’s what is partially responsible for a weak .245 average. That, and the drop in walk rate (from 11.5% last year closer to his career rate of 7.5% this year). Cain won’t ever hit for much power nor will he likely swipe another 20 to repeat last year’s 30, but I do believe once this thumb issue is behind him, we will see the ultra-consistent Cain we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few seasons.
Nick Castellanos (OF, team tbd?)
Nick the Stick has been a victim of his surroundings. His Tigers are the worst offense in baseball but that’s still no excuse for poor numbers at this point (8 HR, 27 RBI). His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are right around league average, which is a step down from what we saw last season. He hasn’t been quite the lefty-masher (.384 wOBA this year) that he was last year (.424) but his ISO against southpaws is actually over 10 ticks higher this season. A change of scenery would bode well for him and that’s what I’d expect to happen as there will certainly be a handful of teams vying for his services prior to the trade deadline. Castellanos has already rejected being moved to first base and knows that the team isn’t offering him an extension. Castellanos isn’t a star by any decree, but he’s someone who could hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in a full season in the right situation. Betting on him being moved, I’d consider snagging Casty on the cheap where you can.
Joey Wendle (2B/3B, Rays)
We’re now heading into waiver wire territory as there’s a very good chance that Wendle is available in some of your leagues. There seems to be a theme here with hitters who can help us in batting average, and Wendle is one of those guys. He had a very impressive rookie season and garnered AL ROY votes last year coming off a .300 season with 16 SB. He has spent most of the season on IL and has only played 25 games, but has been playing almost every day, moving between 2B and 3B. He’ll certainly play every day for now with Brandon Lowe on crutches and day-to-day with a leg bruise and the team will find a way to fit him in most games. Wendle should be a solid source for bags and average the rest of the way on a team that will certainly let him run.
Francisco Mejia (C, Padres), Danny Jansen (C, Blue Jays)
It’s shockingly been a season where second catchers have not been hard to come by. Brian McCann has had a career resurgence with his original team, Roberto Perez and Pedro Severino have been crushing lefties and both have over a dozen homers. I can understand why someone would have dropped Mejia or Jansen after both were top-10 catchers and have both severely disappointed. But there is a reason why these guys were top-200 overall picks to begin with, and it’s not just hype. Both project as two of baseball’s better-hitting catchers over the next half-decade. Austin Hedges has a bit of pop, but is certainly not the answer for the Padres. He’s a back-up catcher anyways. Now that Mejia is off IL, he has been the Friars’ primary backstop and his bat will soon catch up. He’s a switch-hitter who is just 23 years old, has hit for average in the minors and has legitimate 25-homer upside. Jansen has been the ultimate bust, hitting under the Mendoza Line for most of the season but picked up the pace a little in June and is off to a fine start in July. I do believe Jansen will be fine for the rest of the season and smash his first-half numbers out of the water. He hits the ball hard (41.5 percent rate) and has decent plate patience (a few ticks under nine percent in his career). Snag him now for free while you can.
Honorable Mentions
Daniel Murphy (1B, Rockies), Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY), Austin Meadows (OF, TBR), Garrett Hampson (MI/OF, COL), Corey Seager (SS, LAD), Ryan Zimmerman – waivers (1B, WAS)
