Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.319 |
.252 |
.322 |
.431 |
.180 |
1.38 |
1.20 |
$89 gets you MLB VIP DFS coverage for the season AND #Free access to every sport on the site from now through July 31st from bit.ly/RayFlowers
THE LAST 14 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid with your batters.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
Because of the vagaries of homers allowed over a mere two-week span, the two-week review will remove the impact of the home run.
The Braves have surged to the top, aided by Anthony Swarzak’s excellent work before going down with injury.
The Giants have had a sneaky successful group for most of the season.
The A’s lost Treinen, and improved.
THE LAST 30 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid meaning the bullpen is doing great in that category.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters as the arms are failing in that category.
PURPLE: Any number that is 25 percent or better than the league average (except for homer runs which is discussed next).
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
The Nationals pen had a relatively easy month in terms of workload, whereas the Mariners and Angels were run hard.
No group was elite in first-pitch strike rate or swinging strike rate. Only one group was elite in K/9 – the Red Sox. The R. Sox were also the only elite scorer according to SWIP.
The Rays were the only elite group in the walk column.
The Brew Crew was the only elite homer group in both categories.
The Giants and Cubs have induced a ton of grounders relative to the fly balls.
Even with Jordan Hicks out, the Cardinals still have an impressive group of late.
The Brewers dominate starting with Hader.
The Giants continue to have success with a relatively no-name group of arms.
The Yankees vaunted pen is struggling. Ditto the Astros as the long ball has crept in.
The Angels and Orioles both stink – per usual.
