FGE

2019 Strength of Schedule Fantasy Analysis

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When attempting to project strength of schedule with any degree of accuracy, it’s impossible to utilize just one number or statistic from the previous season. It requires a multitude of variables coming together given how drastically we see teams change from one offseason to another.

I’ve been working hard behind the scenes on trying to create my own version of strength of schedule spanning several subjects — win probability, play against the run, and play against the pass. Each starts with last year’s numbers in these categories and adjusts for player additions, player subtractions, coaching tendencies, scheme changes, and play calling.

For sake of consistency, I’m going to present the finding in one all-encompassing number to help illustrate where I have each team ranked. This should echo previous iterations of the SOS Analysis done here at FantasyGuru, but I’ll be providing my own perspective on the written content.

Here are the grades that were given out for each team’s run defense grade and pass defense grade:

Run Grade Review

Let’s start with the teams at the extremities.

The best run graded units — after all the offseason moves and changes — look like they should be some combination of Chicago, Houston, and Pittsburgh. While other teams certainly merit discussion — you could argue one or two other teams could belong in this tier — these were the three-best that I concluded based on roster composition, scheme, and past performance. 

The Bears front-seven will shift from Vic Fangio’s scheme to Chuck Pagano’s 3-4 scheme. A front line consisting of Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks combined with edge rushers Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd makes for a strong base. They’re backed up by linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith to clean up tackles, with a pair of former Alabama safeties on the back end for insurance. We can also expect more man-to-man coverages in Pagano’s scheme, letting players in the secondary keep their eyes on the backfield for running situations. It may take some time to adjust to Pagano’s changes, but this unit is loaded with playmakers. Last year’s squad allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league and nearly every single defender here graded out positively against the run.

Houston’s run defense didn’t trail far behind Chicago, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards while sporting the lowest yards per carry (3.4). Only Calais Campbell (43) had more run stops last season than J.J. Watt (32) among edge defenders, per PFF. Jadeveon Clowney was franchise tagged this offseason to secure him on the other side of the defense. Clowney and Watt were both inside the top-10 among edge rushers in run play tackles last season. Speaking of PFF, they graded Bernardrick McKinney (No. 3) and Zach Cunningham (No. 17) both inside the top-20 among linebackers against the run. This core has speed, athleticism, and experience to slow down even the league’s best rushing attacks.

The Steelers addition of Devin Bush is going to give Pittsburgh a rangy sideline-to-sideline linebacker to man the middle for years. He’ll be cleaning up tackles early and often throughout his rookie career behind a strong defensive line featuring Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, and T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh was just one of seven teams to allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game to their opponents. I expect that to continue with this squad in 2019.

The lowest graded run defense units — ones that we should be targeting in fantasy and DFS — look on paper like they could be a combination of the Chiefs, Dolphins, Giants, and the Cardinals.

Kansas City lost both starting edge rushers with Dee Ford going to San Francisco and Justin Houston going to Indianapolis. Overpaying for Frank Clark — who is a better pass rusher than run stopper at this point of his career — is a lateral move at best. DC Steve Spagnuolu will have his hands full overhauling a defense bereft of much talent in the front-seven. The Chiefs allowed over 5.0 yards per carry last season. Heavy-footed thumpers Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland should have a tough time catching backs in space again in 2019. The Chiefs allowed the most 20-plus runs last season with 19.

The Dolphins team should get a pass this year as we see new HC Brian Flores build this unit from the ground up. Investing in Christian Wilkins (first round pick) is a start, but the rest of the defensive line needs more draft capital spent on it and fewer free agent band-aids. Raekwon McMillan is a bright spot for the run defense after leading the league with 47 run stops, but teams are going to run on this squad often late in games to ice them away.

I’ll never understand the Giants giving away top run-stuffer Damon Harrison for pennies on the dollar and am forced to chalk that up to just another poor front office decision. Since his departure (Week 7), the Giants went from allowing 4.25 yards per carry in Weeks 1-7, to 5.11 yards per carry for the remainder of the season. The front-seven now is a wreck devoid of playmakers and will require a complete overhaul. I’m going to aggressively be targeting backs against the Giants the first few weeks of the season to see how susceptible they remain against the run.

No team faced more rushing attempts against than the Cardinals last season (31.9). While this can be contributed more to Steve Wilk’s incompetence as a playcaller and innovator on the offensive side of the ball, it also showed that Arizona needs a lot of work in that department after yielding 4.9 yards per carry. Free agent additions Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks will slide into the starting lineup and help one of last year’s worst units. Corey Peters and Robert Nkemdiche both need to step up this year if this unit wants to improve. Game script alone should be a positive boon for the run defense, but this is still a unit offenses should be running against.

Pass Grade Review

Starting out at the top, there’s quite a few top-shelf units capable of slowing down opposing passing offenses. Let’s focus on the top-three graded units, with the Rams, Chargers, and Vikings.

Prior to Aqib Talib’s injury, the Rams pass defense was one of the best in the league.

Image courtesy of TheQuantEdge (TQE).

Talib’s absence (out-of-split numbers) saw the Rams’ opponents pass at a heavier rate without him and find a higher success rate and explosive pass play rate. Opposing quarterbacks also dialed up the pass further downfield with their yards per pass rate climbing from 7.2 up to 8.9 without Talib. Talib’s return strengthens this unit and allows Marcus Peters to slide back over to covering WR2’s where he can take fewer game-changing gambles. The pass rush remains one of the best in the league spear-headed by Aaron Donald (league-leading 21 sacks and 65 hurries last year), and now adds FA addition Clay Matthews at edge (35 pass hurries last two seasons) to pair with Dante Fowler. Adding Eric Weddle on the backend to join rising star John Johnson III should make this a scary unit for opposing OC’s to scheme against.

Perhaps even more impressive is the pass defense unit that the Chargers have put together. Armed with a one-two punch with adept pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III, opposing quarterbacks will have to work their reads quickly when facing LA. A secondary consisting of Casey Hayward Jr., Desmond King II, Derwin James, and second-round pick Nasir Adderley will force opposing quarterbacks to be spot-on when throwing to their targets. Health is the only thing keeping this squad from performing at their best.

The Vikings defense is another all-around quality unit possessing an 89 grade against the pass and an 87 grade against the run. Minnesota’s pass rush is led by Danielle Hunter (14.5 sacks last year, fourth-most). Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith had down years compared to their lofty standards, but if they can get back to peak performance, they lead an otherwise high-end secondary. Trae Waynes has been a steady CB2 and slot corner Mackensie Alexander continues to improve and see progress. He had the 11th-lowest QB Rating when targeted against among qualifying slot corners last season (82.1). Despite the down year from the group’s best players, no team allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Vikings last season (15). I’m anticipating a bounce-back for DC George Edwards’ group in 2019 as they enter their sixth season in his system.

At the other end of the spectrum, the worst-graded pass defenses entering 2019 should be Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, and Kansas City.

Tampa Bay will be starting a youthful secondary of Carlton Davis (1-year of experience), Vernon Hargreaves III (3-years), Jordan Whitehead (1-year), Justin Evans (2-years), and M.J. Stewart (1-year). This squad last year allowed the highest passing yards per attempt (8.2) and QB Rating against (110.9). They allowed the most fantasy points against to opposing wide receivers.

The 49ers secondary was one regularly targeted in DFS last season. They allowed the second highest QB Rating against (105.4) and the second most passing touchdowns (35). Defensive additions of Jason Verrett, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Nick Bosa should make this an improved unit, but is it enough to overcome last year’s poor performances against the pass? It’s a step in the right direction, but there’s still some areas in need of improvement.

Carolina’s revamped front-seven should do a solid job against the run, but their backend still needs some work. James Bradberry allowed the sixth-most receiving yards against among all corners last year (783). Rashaan Gaulden could be a weak spot again after coming in as PFF’s No. 44 safety. Pass rushing with Brian Burns, Mario Addison, and Bruce Irvin will need to step it up if they want to make their secondary have an easier time.

Finally, the Chiefs pass defense. There are few positive things to say here. Steven Nelson ranked second in most receiving yards given up (825). Cutting him was a necessary move, but you have to wonder how Charvarius Ward will be considering Nelson was starting ahead of him. Kendall Fuller allowed the most receptions (67). The entire unit allowed the second-most passing yards and now they let both of last year’s starting edge rushers both walk. This is going to be a unit we target heavily once again in 2019.

Strength of Schedule – Run Game Analysis

Diving into the meat and potatoes of this article, let’s run through the schedules for running backs this year based on SOS.

  • Tevin Coleman and the 49ers face one of the league’s easier run game schedules. One difficult matchup — Week 3 vs PIT (89) — looks like the one roadblock to an otherwise mostly green schedule.
  • The Steelers and James Conner should be in for a schedule of fairly soft matchups. Outside of a Week 16 matchup at the Jets (88), Conner should have little difficulty paving a way to back-to-back RB1 seasons.
  • Le’Veon Bell will have his work cut out for him working behind a less than spectacular line in New York, but one positive going for him is SOS on his side. The Jets face the third-easiest run schedule including a six-week stretch sliding into the fantasy playoffs that includes at MIA (81), vs NYG (81), at WAS (85), vs OAK (83), at CIN (84), and vs MIA (81). Wheels up for Bell in New York.
  • The combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should excel down the stretch for Cleveland. Matchups at home against MIA (81) in Week 12 and on the road against AZ (81) in Week 16 look like fantasy-friendly matchups. There are very few challenging opponents here on the Browns’ run schedule outside of Pittsburgh (89).
  • The Patriots face the most bottom-dwelling teams. They face the Dolphins (81) twice, the Giants (81), and the Chiefs (80). Their second matchup with Miami comes in Week 17 so it won’t count for most fantasy leagues, but there’s still a few archaic ones around that play that long. Damien Harris continues to be a bestball riser and this re-ensures he’s someone that I’m moving up my personal board.
  • Looking at the more difficult schedules against the run, the Falcons look like they face the toughest overall schedule (86.250). Nine of their 16 matchups during the fantasy season come against opponents that grade at least 87 or higher. If Devonta Freeman makes it to Week 8, there’s a good little sell window following Weeks 6-8 — at AZ (81), vs LAR (84), and vs SEA (83) — to try and offload him.
  • The Titans face one of the more difficult schedules. Tennessee starts with an opening three-week stretch at Cleveland (87), vs Indianapolis (87), and at Jacksonville (88). They then finish the year Weeks 15-17 vs Houston (90), vs New Orleans (88), at Houston (90). That makes things rather difficult for the Titans backs this year. Their end of season schedule makes me think of fading Derrick Henry in something like DRAFT’s Best Ball Championship where you need to get red-hot in the playoffs to take down the entire thing.
  • I was really digging Kenyan Drake as a mid-round value fantasy option when he was going at the Round 5/6 turn. Recent ADP has him climbing into the fourth. That climb in price, combined with a brutal schedule including matchups against PIT (89), PHI (88), and NYJ (88) twice, have turned him into more of a fade for me at current cost.
  • The fight for RB1 carries in Washington won’t start out pretty. With an opening schedule at PHI (88), vs DAL (87), and vs CHI (90), Week 4 could be a smart time to buy low on Derrius Guice in dynasty. No matter how the workload is divided amongst the backs in Washington, the end result isn’t going to look pretty coming out of the first three weeks.
  • The Colts & Chargers face the highest number of challenging defenses (89 – 90) during Weeks 1 – 16. Marlon Mack owners might be frustrated with his consistency as the Colts take on the ninth-most difficult schedule. Melvin Gordon owners on the other hand, should take solace in that their running back faces some sporadic challenges, but it’s an otherwise easy schedule (sixth-easiest). Gordon’s week-to-week consistency makes him a strong buy in the middle of the first round.
  • In terms of fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16), the three softest matchups go to the Patriots, Browns, and Jaguars, in that order. New England takes on KC (80), CIN (84), and BUF (85). Cleveland squares off against CIN (84), AZ (81), and then a tough matchup against BAL (86). Jacksonville goes against LAC (85), OAK (83), and ATL (84). Damien Harris could be a potential league-winner.
  • The three most-difficult fantasy playoff matchups belong to the Falcons, Packers, and Cowboys. Don’t be afraid to pivot to smarter alternatives if they’re available on your waiver wire. Just because these backs got your squad to the playoffs doesn’t mean you need to rely on them during the most critical part of the season. Remember, fantasy football is a week-to-week game. Act accordingly and prep for the playoffs in advance if rostering backs on these squads.

Strength of Schedule – Pass Game Analysis

Now let’s take an in-depth look at the fantasy implications of SOS from the passing angle.

  • The NFC South has an incredibly appealing SOS in terms of passing. Not only do they face a ton of teams indoors with domes, but also face each other. The Saints are our leader here in terms of easiest pass game schedule (84.375), with dark green matchups against Tampa Bay (80) twice, Carolina (82) twice, and San Francisco (81).
  • The Falcons benefit from the same great five matchups. Don’t be surprised if Matt Ryan’s touchdown rate spikes well above the league average for the third time in four years. The Falcons’ brutal run schedule could lead them to passing more in 2019. Julio Jones has led in PFF’s highly predictive Yards per Route Run metric five of the last six seasons.
  • Nick Foles gets to begin his Jaguars journey with a relatively soft schedule. Facing just one red matchup on the year — vs LAC (90) in Week 14 — don’t be surprised if Foles flirts with high-end QB2 production. He’s a fantastic QB2 option in Superflex leagues given his suppressed ADP (QB27). I’m extremely bullish on Dede Westbrook this season and this schedule only amplifies my desire to get him in Round 9.
  • Indianapolis ties Washington for the fourth-easiest matchup schedule. Andrew Luck faces an AFC South that has middling passing grades against his opponents — TEN (86), JAX (86), and HOU (84). Combine that with some mostly soft matchups like at KC (82), at TB (80), and vs CAR (82), and you have the makings for a strong fantasy campaign for Luck and the Colts — especially during the fantasy playoffs. Washington’s SOS helps them, but their quarterback situation needs clarity. Case Keenum projects to start at this point of the offseason, but it shouldn’t be long until we start seeing what Dwayne Haskins can do at the NFL level. A soft passing schedule hopefully should alleviate a difficult rushing one.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Saints and Falcons led the way with the most matchups against squads ranked 82 or lower. Since we’ve already addressed these squads, I think it’d be noteworthy to mention a particularly easy stretch of opponents on the Arizona Cardinals’ schedule. Weeks 9-11 they face the 49ers (81) twice with a matchup against the Buccaneers (80) in the middle. By then we should know whether or not Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is all it’s cracked up to be; it should make for a great time buy Cardinals players prior to their Week 12 bye.
  • Taking a look at the most difficult passing schedules, the Chiefs are the unfortunate winners of this crown. Luckily for fantasy, a Week 17 matchup against the Chargers (90) will largely go avoided, but Kansas City also faces them in Week 11, as well as difficult matchups in Week 9 vs MIN (89) and Week 16 at CHI (88). Patrick Mahomes was due for natural regression in the touchdown department (8.6% TD rate), but don’t be surprised if a tough SOS turns Mahomes into an overdrafted fantasy quarterback.
  • Two matchups against the Ravens (90) and a rough playoff stretch has the Steelers coming in with the second-most difficult passing schedule. The Steelers’ own defense can keep them in games (89 RunD Grade, 86 PassD Grade), but don’t be surprised if a tough SOS makes the loss of Antonio Brown stand out even more in Ben Roethlisberger’s numbers. Luckily the Steelers possess one of the top rushing schedules to mitigate these issues.
  • Not only has Mitchell Trubisky been one of the least consistent fantasy quarterbacks over the past two years, he now has a difficult passing schedule on top of his own passing problems to overcome. His volatile passing won’t help against a schedule featuring MIN (89), NO (88), CHI (90), and LAR (90). He’s a fade for me this season at current cost.
  • There was a three-way tie for the team with the most matchups against defenses graded 88 or higher between Green Bay, Dallas, and Denver. All three face tough passing schedules on the surface, but I wouldn’t let that deter you from drafting players on these squads per se. Just brace yourself for up-and-down performances throughout the year and plan accordingly.
  • Looking at passing SOS during just the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16), Atlanta, Jacksonville, and the New York Giants have the softest SOS. This just further reiterates that the Falcons and Jaguars are safe plays if in need of a tiebreaker when on the clock. The Giants were a surprise here considering their overall SOS comes in at 15th, but three end-of-season matchups with PHI (83), MIA (83), and WAS (84) could make some of their skill position players worth acquiring before the trade deadline.
  • The two teams with the most difficult passing SOS during the fantasy playoffs are the 49ers and Raiders. Matchups for the 49ers against New Orleans (88) and the LA Rams (90) will likely have Jimmy Garoppolo owners looking to the waiver wire in Weeks 14 and 16. Oakland’s most difficult matchup comes in Week 16 against the Chargers (90).

This is a lot of information to take in. Feel free to bookmark and return to this page as many times as needed to digest. If you have any questions at all regarding the process or final results, feel free to ask me in our Chat Room where I’ll be happy to answer everything.

Good luck this year FG fam! Hope this helps!