As we shift closer and closer towards the 2019 season, it’s important to have a good grasp of context outside of pure player evaluation. As we all know, there’s an incredible amount of context that goes into a player succeeding or failing in a given season. Considering that, it seemed apt to create a piece surrounding some of the more complicated players and situations to evaluate.
I’ll run through all the notable players that will be starting out the year with question marks, and break down my read on their situation. Obviously things are going to evolve over the next couple of months, but for those drafting best ball leagues, playing In dynasty leagues or drafting high stakes leagues early in the season, this is an important process to run through.
Suspensions
Tyreek Hill (Chiefs, WR) (To be determined)
Hill has been one of the bigger topics of the offseason, and with his status still up in the air, diligence in this matter is essential. There’s been a lot of debate on how to deal with Hill in fantasy football this offseason, and it’s still unclear which will end up being correct. Hill will almost assuredly be suspended, but if it’s only for a few games, he clearly still has elite upside. Rumors last week suggest he’s looking at a four game loss to start the 2019 season, but obviously that hasn’t been confirmed yet (likely leaking to gauge public reaction). As of now, it’s tough to totally fade Hill like earlier in the offseason. If playing best ball leagues, certainly find your way into some exposure if you haven’t already.
Benjamin Watson (Patriots, TE) (Four Games)
Watson is 38 years old, of course he did steroids!! Joking aside, Watson would be BY FAR the most fantasy-intriguing TE on the Patriots depth chart if he were available. The bad news is he’s out the first four games of the season. The good news is there’s nobody on the roster that will steal a fantasy relevant TE role. Watson is still very athletic for the position, and has plenty of experience in the Patriots system. He’s unlikely to be draft-able beyond very late round best ball leagues and deep dynasty leagues, but there’s certainly week-to-week appeal once Watson enters the fold in Week 5.
Josh Gordon (Patriots, WR) (Indefinite)
Don’t hold your breath sounds harsh, which it is. Holding out hope for Gordon at this stage is serial killer behavior, and it’s not something I can advise. Gordon is undeniably talented, and the folks that got a taste of fantasy relevance last year are probably willing to wait for more, but.. don’t. There’s plenty of upside later in drafts of all formats, specifically of the later round variety. The Patriots drafted N’Keal Harry in round one of the 2019 NFL draft, have a fully healthy Julian Edelman and brought in Demaryius Thomas to potentially fill in snaps. Some of these moves indicate they’re moving on without Gordon, and clearly aren’t counting on him for anything at this stage.
Kareem Hunt (Browns, RB) (Eight Games)
This was a situation that finally felt solved, but reports/speculation of Hunt getting into a bar fight over the weekend certainly put a damper on what was already depressed fantasy value. Hunt is really putting to the test how far NFL franchises are willing to go with talent. Hunt is already missing half the fantasy season, and with this new dilemma pending, fantasy owners should take a long pause before drafting him. For me, there’s no way I’d touch him in any format as things stand. He’s one or two strikes away from not only losing the 2019 season, but his career, and it’s clear he’s still putting himself in questionable situations.
PUP List Candidates
Marqise Lee (Jaguars, WR) (Knee)
All reports are that Lee is making progress in recovering from his major knee injury from 2018. Considering that, he should be on radars. Lee has yet to practice, and missing the first part of the season certainly appears to be a possibility. The Jaguars are a run-first team that likely won’t produce many fantasy relevant weeks for WRs, but if Lee can get back to full strength by early in the year, he’ll muddy the waters for the other players in the offense. This is really more about Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Chris Conley more than anything else. Unless it’s a deep dynasty league, avoiding this situation all together seems optimal.
Demaryius Thomas (Patriots, WR) (Achilles)
Thomas is less than a year removed from tearing his achilles, and he’s on the wrong side of 30 to be making a quick recovery. While it’s certainly encouraging that the Patriots brought Thomas in and are giving him a real shot to make the team, it’s realistic to think this could be a short stop in New England. If Thomas can regain some of the skills that made him one of the most impressive WRs in the NFL for almost a decade he could certainly be fantasy relevant, but getting placed on the PUP is a real likelihood considering the severity of the injury.
Tyler Eifert (Bengals, TE) (Ankle)
As I’ve stated in other articles over the last couple of weeks, I’m out on Eifert making a comeback. I’d certainly be excited and happy for him if he does, but as far as fantasy football is concerned, this is a stay away zone. Eifert is coming off a full ankle reconstruction surgery, and is very likely to start the season on the PUP. Considering that and them drafting Drew Sample in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft, the Bengals clearly have insurance policies in place. Eifert can be a pleasant surprise at the bottom of a roster, but expecting early season production out of a guy that isn’t a sure thing to start the season is not advisable.
Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos, WR) (Achilles)
All indications from Sanders himself suggests that he’ll be ready to go for opening day of Week 1, and he’s shown videos of himself running at full speed. However, there should always be some skepticism with achilles injuries. Sanders, like his former teammate Thomas, is on the wrong side of 30 to be dealing with such a major injury. If Sanders does make it back, he’ll have much more competition for targets than he received in 2018. Between Courtland Sutton and Daesean Hamilton entering year two, along with highly touted first round selection Noah Fant entering the fold, Sanders was likely in for a smaller role regardless of the injury. Of all the PUP situations to monitor, this would be the one I’m most optimistic about. Sanders looked fantastic in 2018 before the injury, and if he can bring back 80% of that, he’ll be a very productive player for the Broncos this year, and a fantasy value where he’s currently being drafted.
