It sounds like the Red Sox may have found their closer… in Nathan Eovaldi? Andrew Cashner has actually been a usable piece. Kinda. Maybe. DeSclafani has surged as the weather has warmed. Eflin and Fried have had strong first halves. What is coming in the second? Is there anything to like with the following trio of AL arms: Heaney, Kikuchi and Keller? Mr. Boring is also named Ivan Nova. Lester and Lucchesi, two NL lefties to discuss. Maeda and Porcello, two righties with one going up, one going down. Can you trust Quintana or Eduardo Rodriguez the rest of the way?
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RED SOX NEW CLOSER?
The Red Sox seemingly have no plan in the 9th inning this season, other than not to have a plan. They keep trying different fellas, and it’s just not working (something you know if you’ve been reading the Closer Chart each week). They think they may finally have found the answer in — Nathan Eovaldi. Tom Caron has been told by multiple sources that Eovaldi will become the full-time closer when he’s back from the IL (it’s unclear when that will be which throws another monkey wrench into the works). Recall that Eovaldi had elbow surgery in April, then a setback in early June with a biceps issue, and he’s long had an issue staying healthy, constantly spending time in both the doctor’s and surgeon’s offices, and he’s made 152 of his 160 big league appearances as a starting pitcher.
Yes, Eovaldi has a nice run in the playoffs last season. Still, with his funky delivery, I’m not sure if he’s suited for the bullpen. Second, with all those injuries in his background, I find it hard to believe that he’s going to consistently be used on back-to-back days, or three times in four, so I wouldn’t expect him to be a high volume closer. Third, though his stuff should play up in the bullpen, the guy has a 6.78 K/9 rate for his career and just once, ever, has the mark been 7.10 which isn’t exactly ideal for a closer. Fourth, that 2.43 career K/BB ratio is below league average. The stuff hasn’t always equated to on the field success.
He’s got the arm to excel in the ninth. He’s likely to have an opportunity with the struggles of the Sox (highlighted by their beat down at the hand for the Yankees over the weekend). I would suggest adding him where available, with the caveat that health has always been an issue for this righty. Always.
STARTING PITCHER ARMS
Andrew Cashner allowed 11 runs in back-to-back outings, likely jettisoning every remaining believer in the beleaguered righty. So, of course, Cashner has gone on a 4-game roll. In those four outings, Cashner has allowed a total of six runs, though only four were earned. He’s walked a single batter in each outing, didn’t let one ball reach the seats, and he tossed, get this, 4-straight quality starts. I’m not in the ‘jump at all costs’ movement here, not with his overall game, but there is at least streaming potential here in deep formats.
Anthony DeSclafani had a really solid June. Over 26.1 innings he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 9.19 K/9 rate and a 2.05 BB/9 mark. He also allowed just one homer, pointing out that if he can avoid being beaten deep, that he’s a very effective hurler that can be used in all fantasy formats.
Zach Eflin has allowed four homers his last two starts to push the season long mark up to 1.39. He doesn’t miss bats with a mere 9.2 percent swinging strike rate, and a lot of his success this season has been built off the 69 percent first pitch strike rate he owns. It’s very tough to hold on to a mark that high all season long, and he’s on pace for his first season of 150-innings pitched (148 last season). The biggest concern though might be that 82 percent left on base percentage. Maybe, maybe five guys in baseball post a mark that high every year, so realize that his 3.34 ERA could easily be a run higher than that from this point forward.
Finally found. Wow.
Max Fried has had monthly SLG marks of .356, .410 and .477. Moreover, his June was pretty rough from a slash line perspective (.313/.369/.477). All year long he’s been nails with the bases empty (.291 wOBA), but with men on base the mark is .358. Interestingly, his third time through the order this season his wOBA is .292, compared to a mark of .351 his second time through. Strange. We need more data.
Andrew Heaney has 44 punchouts in 36.2 innings. That’s about the only good thing going on right now. Heaney has allowed a homer in 3-straight, and he has a 2.21 HR/9 rate that includes three games with two homers allowed. Heaney has also allowed five runs 3-of-5 outings. Talent or not, and I do like the skills, there is no level of trust right now with Heaney in any format. He’s a drop candidate depending on the options you have to turn to.
Brad Keller has a mere 6.43 K/9 for the season. He just doesn’t miss bats. He’s also issuing 4.29 walks per nine, which we all know, is a terrible number. This just isn’t a skillset that I’m attracted to. He has allowed just eight homers and owns a 50 percent ground ball rate, but I’m still not interest. If you are, consider the following; he’s allowed seven and six runs in 2-of-3 outings, and each of those two outings he’s been battered for two homers. Be cautious.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed six runs his last two outings (11 innings). That’s 3-of-4 outings with three earned runs or less. However, he’s also allowed six runs in 3-of-6 outings. In those six outings he has an 8.13 ERA, a 2.24 WHIP and a 1.06 K/BB ratio. I doubt he’s rosterable in most formats at the moment.
Jon Lester has allowed one homer, two walks and three runs his last two starts. Over his last three starts he’s allowed six earned runs while walking three. Lester has more than a K per inning, a nine year best, and his 2.05 BB/9 rate would be his best mark since 2014. So why the struggles this season in the ratio cats? The homer. From 2008 to 2016, Lester allow one homer per nine just once. The mark was 1.30 and 1.19 the last two seasons, but this year the mark is way up to 1.53. He’s been saddled by a 16 percent HR/FB ratio, the highest of his career, even though his launch angle is down a percent from last season at 12.5 percent. He has a 37.9 percent hard-hit ball rate, a five-year high, so folks are simply squaring him up with a bit more oomph than normal, even if his fly ball rate is down a half percent from last season at 36.0 percent.
Joey Lucchesi worked 51 innings on the road last season with a .318 wOBA. This season, the mark is .315 on the road. However, his 4.24 ERA last season has exploded to 6.10 this season. It’s not really warranted though as he has an impressive 4.86 K/BB ratio and 1.29 WHIP. Homers continue to be a bit of an issue though with HR/9 rates of 1.41 and 1.45.
Kenta Maeda has allowed two runs in 3-straight outings to lower his ERA to 3.78. Over his last eight outings the number is 3.10 as he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs six times while allowing three and five earned runs the other two. Over those nine outings he also has more than a punchout an inning with a 4.50 K/BB ratio. He’s just really, really good. You might have missed it as well, but Maeda is currently rocking a 1.10 WHIP that is top shelf, and the best mark or his career (previously 1.14).
Ivan Nova is a streaming option for the desperate. At some point, everyone gives the ride a whirl, and usually they are disappointing. He has lasted at least five innings in 8-straight starts, but that comes with a 4.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. That’s pretty much who he is of course.
Rick Porcello has allowed one homer in four games, and in 3-of-4 outings he’s walked 0/1 batters. However, he has allowed 11 runs his last two starts covering just 6.1 frames. For all the good that’s he offers, he’s virtually torpedoed it with struggles this season. All told, his June looks pretty ugly with a 7.35 K/9 rate, a .300 batting average, a .341 OBP and a .462 SLG. Porcello also has a 0.96 GB/FB ratio right now, which would be a career worst.
Jose Quintana was bombed for nine runs (eight earned) two outings ago. Last time against the Reds he tossed six shutout innings. That’s actually 5-of-6 outings in which Quintana has allowed three or fewer earned runs. He figures to be a solid innings eater the rest of the way, just like usual.
Eduardo Rodriguez is 17-starts into his season. He has 102 punchouts in 97.2 innings and an 8-4 record. ERod, as folks call him, has a solid 3.29 K/BB ratio, but he’s also allowing a career worst 1.36 homers per nine, and that number happens to match his mark in the WHIP category which is also a career worst. He’s had a tough time getting lefties out this season with a bloated .377 wOBA that includes a significant .575 SLG, and while his work at home has led to a .286 wOBA, his work on the road is much higher (.360) presenting a couple of situations to avoid using the lefty.
Finally, R.I.P. Tyler Skaggs.
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