Consistency in fantasy football is an important thing when it comes to roster construction. While we can appreciate the volatile boom/bust weeks of players like DeSean Jackson and Will Fuller, having a starting roster full of these types of players can lead to some rough outings when they play to their floors.
End of season fantasy stats give you a reflection of how a player did over the year, but they don’t really tell the whole story. Fantasy football is played on a week-to-week basis. We want players that are consistently playing well to make up the core of our fantasy squads.
In order to find these consistent, week-to-week fantasy players, I calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) for each player. This is the player’s week-to-week standard deviation divided by his points per game average. By dividing it against PPG, we can create a level playing field for players on a per-game basis.
I took a look at all fantasy games from Weeks 1 – 16 over the past two seasons as the makeup of our data set. Week 17 was excluded from this exercise due to how often teams deploy backups and don’t necessarily treat it the same as the other weeks. A two-year span gives us more data points to work with and what should be a greater degree of accuracy.
I also wanted to add a fantasy element to this exercise, by adding Top-12% weeks — QB1 performances — during this time frame. Top-12% was calculated by averaging every QB12 fantasy week from Weeks 1 – 16 during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. That number came out to be 18.3 FPs per game. Top-12% was the number of times that each quarterback surpassed that threshold divided by the number of games they played.
Let’s get to the good stuff.
| Player | Team | Games | PPG | CV% | Top-12% |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 6 | 17.3 | 9.9% | 33.3% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 15 | 26.6 | 24.7% | 86.7% |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 13 | 16.9 | 31.4% | 30.8% |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 24 | 19.8 | 31.7% | 70.8% |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 15 | 20.3 | 33.5% | 73.3% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 30 | 20.6 | 34.2% | 66.7% |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 30 | 17.3 | 34.2% | 43.3% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 30 | 14.7 | 38.6% | 16.7% |
| Tom Brady | NE | 30 | 17.8 | 39.4% | 46.7% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GNB | 22 | 20.1 | 39.6% | 59.1% |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 29 | 19.7 | 40.4% | 51.7% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 30 | 19.6 | 40.6% | 43.3% |
| Case Keenum | DEN/MIN | 29 | 14.8 | 40.8% | 27.6% |
| Kirk Cousins | WAS/MIN | 30 | 18.1 | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 30 | 17.9 | 43.0% | 40.0% |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 22 | 21.8 | 43.8% | 63.6% |
| Drew Brees | NOR | 30 | 18.4 | 44.4% | 43.3% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 24 | 12.8 | 47.3% | 20.8% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 29 | 13.9 | 48.1% | 31.0% |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 30 | 18.1 | 49.0% | 40.0% |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 30 | 16.7 | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 29 | 14.2 | 52.0% | 24.1% |
| Jameis Winston | TAM | 22 | 15.6 | 52.3% | 45.5% |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 12 | 13.4 | 53.0% | 25.0% |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 27 | 15.4 | 53.4% | 40.7% |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 26 | 14.0 | 53.7% | 34.6% |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 28 | 13.3 | 55.9% | 28.6% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TAM | 13 | 18.4 | 56.9% | 53.8% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 11 | 15.2 | 62.7% | 45.5% |
| Josh Rosen | ARI | 13 | 8.2 | 63.6% | 7.7% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 24 | 15.8 | 64.5% | 29.2% |
Fantasy Takeaways
- Prior to getting the starting nod, Lamar Jackson had a few games where he was sprinkled in as a runner. I excluded those games and used just his six starts (his seventh start came on Week 17). Jackson was by far the most consistent week-to-week fantasy option last year with a CV% of just 9.9%. Granted, it’s a small sample size of just six games, but his rushing ability provided him a safe floor that bailed out inconsistent passing performances. He makes for the perfect complement to a QB with a higher CV%.
- Patrick Mahomes’ 26.6 points per game not only led our group of quarterbacks, but his 24.7% CV showed he put up close to this number on a fairly consistent basis. Scoring a whopping 86.7% of his games north of 18.3 fantasy points (QB1 numbers), Mahomes is certainly due for some regression following his 8.6% touchdown rate, but don’t be surprised if it’s just mild regression due to how consistently well Mahomes played last year.
- Carson Wentz is oft scrutinized for being injured, but his performance when healthy is rather remarkable. He’s averaged 19.8 FPPG over the past two seasons (24-of-32 games) and done it with consistent fashion (31.7% CV). His 70.8% top-12 rate trails only Mahomes and Andrew Luck during this time frame. Wentz’ back issues look like a thing of the past with him playing without limitations. He could turn into a terrific value at ADP as the current QB10 given his consistent spike weeks.
- Another quarterback with conflicting fantasy value, Russell Wilson consistently performed close to his 20.6 PPG average, sporting a CV of 34.2% — sixth-highest rate. He also had the fourth-highest top-12% (66.7%) over the past two years among this subset. Even with a run-heavy offense, Wilson has shown he can be a consistent fantasy option for you hovering north of 20-plus fantasy points. I have no qualms with drafting him as a QB1 this year.
- While we like the idea of consistency, the idea is to be consistently good. Matthew Stafford has a top-10 CV rate (38.6%), but unfortunately has averaged just 14.7 FPPG during the past two years. This puts him down squarely in the QB2 range. That being said, it’s not necessarily a bad thing for Superflex/2QB leagues. Sometimes your second or third quarterbacks in these leagues can be extremely volatile. Owners that want week-after-week bankable production may prefer someone of Stafford’s ilk as their QB2.
- At the bottom of the table, Mitchell Trubisky comes in as the most volatile fantasy option over the past two years (64.5% CV). Eight of his 24 games (33%) resulted in him scoring fewer than double-digit fantasy points. He also had three games go north of 30-plus. Entering his third year in the league, Trubisky needs to become a more consistent quarterback. He’s a current sell for me in dynasty leagues.
- Marcus Mariota (55.9%) and Andy Dalton (53.7%) were also two of the worst performers in terms of consistency. Both quarterbacks received new offensive coordinators this season in Arthur Smith and Brian Callahan, respectively. Considering the surrounding casts of both these quarterbacks at both the skill position players and offensive line, this could be a make-or-break season for both signal callers.
