At this point in the offseason, I have nearly 100 bestball drafts completed under my belt. The plurality of my investments have been under DRAFT and Fanball, but a few FFPC drafts and some industry-led mocks have led me to a quality handling of ADP at this juncture.
While these bestball drafts have a different format than typical redraft leagues, many of the same principles can be applied to your upcoming drafts in late August or early September.
Entering the month of July, there are several strategies, drafting concepts, and specific players that I seem to gravitate toward. This weekly segment — Tyler’s Thoughts — is aimed at dissecting my personal thoughts and strategies and sharing them with you all. Let’s dive into these topics now and get a close look at how I’m preparing for 2019 drafts at this stage of the game.
First Round Strategy
With over four months worth of ADP collected, the first round of drafts has already been mostly defined. Training camp injuries are the only thing likely to shake this up between now and draft time.
The first four picks are generally going to be some combination of Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara. Personal preference:
- PPR: CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Kamara
- 5 PPR: Zeke, CMC, Saquon, Kamara
- Standard: Zeke, CMC, Saquon, Kamara
David Johnson is my clear-cut No. 5 running back behind this top tier. I differ from Mans’ rankings (RB14) by quite a bit here, but I believe in a Kliff Kingsbury being able to get more from Johnson rather than running him into the back of his center 156 times like last year.
Image courtesy of SharpFootballStats.com
At Pick 6, this is where things get interesting. I’ve been dividing my bestball shares with Melvin Gordon in full-PPR (Fanball) and Travis Kelce in half-PPR (DRAFT). Gordon’s injuries down the stretch cloud what was an otherwise brilliant 2018 campaign where he scored at least 20-plus PPR points in 8-of-10 games prior to his Week 12 injury. Drafting a tight end this early is a huge divisive strategy within the fantasy community, but I’m 100% on board the Kelce train this year. The Chiefs defense remains a work in progress, which should lead to negative passing game scripts often. Kelce sported a 25.7% target share and was also one of the most effective tight ends operating out of the slot (2.87 yards per route run).
The next tier consists of a combination of Le’Veon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, James Conner, and Joe Mixon. This tier could be drafted in any number of ways, but this order as it currently is listed is my personal preference. Securing one of the top-shelf running backs in the first round has been my modus operandi all offseason, which is why I prefer to round the first round with Conner and Mixon.
Drafting Concepts
There are two main concepts I want to talk about when approaching drafts this year.
The biggest reason for this running back-heavy start to the first round is how well Modified ZeroRB teams can be constructed this year. For those unfamiliar with the ZeroRB drafting method, feel free to check out Armando Marsal’s primer on the subject. Reminder, this drafting method works best in full PPR leagues with at least three wide receivers and a flex spot for a fourth wideout.
I like placing my own twist on this drafting method by going Modified ZeroRB. This drafting stance has you taking a running back in the first round and then hammering the wide receiver and tight end positions for multiple rounds. Loading up on top-36 wide receivers — where you have the option to flex four of them — has proven to accrue more fantasy points than their running back counterparts.
Top-36 receivers have outscored top-36 running backs each of the past three years. Selecting these wideouts over their running back equivalents has proven to be a source of more fantasy points. Drafting four or five of them with a tight end thrown into the mix can lead to a roster set to aggressively accrue fantasy points. The high ceilings of these receivers allow you to overcome any shortcomings at the RB2 spot.
The second running back position can be safely ignored until the sixth or seventh rounds. This lets you forego the oft-busting Round 3-5 running backs that can crater your team and just stream RB2 production among later picks. There are a ton of RB24+ candidates that you can safely roster this season with double-digit fantasy scoring. I plan on doing an in-depth list on this later this offseason, but a few targets off the bat: Latavius Murray (RB34), Miles Sanders (RB35), Austin Ekeler (RB42) and Jerick McKinnon (RB44) all should put up non-zero weeks due to their combination of receiving work and offenses they’re in.
All of this being said, the most important thing you can do before entering a draft is approach it with an open mind. Fluidity in drafts is paramount. If wide receivers start flying off the board early, feel free to pivot to a running back-heavy start. If you see one of the top tight ends slip well beyond ADP, don’t be afraid to adjust and grab them. While we don’t want other’s drafting styles to dictate our own board, sometimes we have to adjust to falling players and scoop value when it presents itself.
Players to Target
Flag planting on fantasy players is a phrase you’ll start hearing more and more frequently as we creep into August. Essentially, these are players that I like at or above ADP and have become priority targets in drafts. Let’s go rapid fire with this segment and name my top-five fantasy targets heading into the month of July.
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He’s become an auto-pick for me in the fifth round. Let’s me get quality RBs/WRs in the first four rounds and then select my favorite Tier 2 tight end.
Latavius Murray, RB, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans’ historic running back usage makes Murray a primary target of mine. The Saints have led the league in running back fantasy points in six of the previous eight seasons. We’ve seen time and time again that coaching staff wants to limit Kamara’s touches, paving a smooth path to Murray scoring fantasy points in bunches on one of the league’s premiere offenses.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Over the past three seasons, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan have had more 25-plus fantasy point outings than Newton. Few quarterbacks have shown the year-over-year rushing consistency of Newton, with him averaging over 600-plus rushing yards per season over his career. His ADP has dropped to QB11 following a shoulder injury suffered last year, making him a terrific value play as someone who’s finished QB5 or greater in every season he’s played all 16 games.
Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
In the 11 games that Fuller and Watson have played together, he’s had a combined 45-782-11 stat line. That comes out to a 17.2 PPR points per game pace, which would’ve netted Fuller a WR7 fantasy finish last season. The week-to-week performance won’t be consistent with Fuller, but few receivers have ceiling capable of what he’s able to put up. He makes for a very strong WR3/FLEX candidate.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Bringing things full-circle, we’re going back to my clear-cut No. 5 fantasy option in drafts this year — David Johnson. ADP has him as the 8.3 pick off the board, but I don’t mind being aggressive with this selection. He has a pass-happy head coach whose collegiate team ranked top-10 in both pass play percentage and plays per game during his tenure. Arizona’s defense allowed 26.6 points per game last year (seventh-most) and Vegas projects them for just 4.5 wins in 2019 — hellooo negative gamescript! That should amplify play volume significantly for the former 400-fantasy point running back. Speaking of that, did you know Johnson is the only running back to clear that fantasy threshold over the past decade? His rushing and receiving work can rival any of the top running backs, and with gamescript and pace in his favor, I’m all in favor of taking him slightly ahead of ADP.
