Continuing our ADP Report series, this week we’ll be diving into what changes have occurred over the previous month in ADP over at the FFPC.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve looked at risers and fallers in both DRAFT ADP and Fanball ADP. FFPC drafts differ in quite a few ways from these two formats, namely the TE-Premium scoring (1.5 PPR) and the duration of drafts lasting 28 rounds. Learn more about drafting at FFPC and the different strategies associated with this site.
Without further ado, let’s get right into some of the highest risers and fallers over at FFPC over the past 30 days.
July ADP Risers
Tyreek Hill (+73.4)
Last week, Tyreek Hill met with NFL officials for eight hours to discuss a potential verdict. No official word has been made on the ruling, but the Chiefs believe he should be available for training camp on July 26th. That being said, Hill may start the season with a suspension. The length has been “predicted” by some Chiefs officials to carry a maximum of four games. While the league continues to drag their feet with a final ruling, it’s difficult for bestball participants to get an accurate read on the passing breakdown in Kansas City. Hill continues to be drafted presuming little to no suspension with a fourth round ADP.
Advice: Your top-five draft picks should be the backbone of your fantasy squad. I can’t recommend Hill as one of those picks knowing you could lose the first four weeks and his bye week for his scores to count in just 11-of-16 weeks. We need more information.
Chase Edmonds (+67.8)
The Cardinals backup running back has seen a significant jump in ADP over the previous month. Arizona left the draft without spending any capital on the running back position, indicating Chase Edmonds as the clear No. 2 option behind David Johnson. Edmonds, a fourth-round pick from last season, possesses 96th percentile agility (per PlayerProfiler), and could be in line for massive volume if anything were to happen to Johnson. The Cardinals are expected to run a fast-paced offense and Edmonds should see regular time just spelling Johnson throughout games.
Advice: Even with the spike in ADP, Edmonds is one of the most valuable RB2’s/handcuffs in the league. His 15th Round ADP should continue to climb and I don’t fault anyone taking him as early as the 12th-13th range.
Darren Waller (+66.5)
We discussed Darren Waller’s rise in the DRAFT ADP update, but I’ll go over the important notes quickly here. The departure of Jared Cook opens up 101 targets in this offense. Waller has yet to see anywhere near that type of volume at the NFL level (career-high 17 targets), but has Madden Build-A-Player type size and speed — 6’-6”, 255 pounds with a 4.46 40-time. His recent spike in ADP has him climbing from the 22nd round up to the 17th.
Advice: Given the FFPC’s scoring structure of TE Premium (1.5 PPR), take Waller as an upside target in the middle of your draft as a TE3 candidate.
Josh Gordon (+65.9)
Rising from late round flier to a 19th round draft pick, Josh Gordon has been one of the more surprising names in this “Riser” category. Outside of some Instagram pictures of Gordon practicing with Tom Brady, there hasn’t been a lot of news on the subject. Gordon is still technically suspended by the league — indefinitely. The Patriots still signed him to a one-year deal this offseason, but we’ll need to see the league take action and reinstate him before Gordon can take the field in 2019. Gordon was Brady’s best perimeter target last season, sporting a 92.8 QB Rating when targeted and leading all other receivers on perimeter routes, per PFF. New England also added N’Keal Harry with the No. 32 overall pick in this year’s draft to further cloud the situation.
Advice: I mentioned being a risk-averse drafter in the early rounds, but if you want to take a flier on Gordon in the 19th round, by all means. He’s not a player I’ll be targeting much, but Gordon went over 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 7-of-12 games last season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+53.7)
If you’ve been following along with my #content as of late, you know I’m all aboard the MVS hype train. Despite the big climb in ADP, he’s still a massive buy target at this juncture.
Advice: Prior to last year, Aaron Rodgers has supported two top-24 fantasy wideouts in six of the eight seasons he’s played at least 15 games. MVS has a massive ceiling in 2019 as the Packers’ No. 2 wideout that I’m not sure the draft community has adjusted to quite yet.
July ADP Fallers
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (-157)
The Patriots released Austin Seferian-Jenkins on June 4th. This is just the market adjusting.
Advice: No need to spend any more than a 28th-round flier on him if you’re a gung-ho ASJ truther hoping he latches on somewhere.
Irv Smith (-65.1)
Rumors that the Vikings could be looking to trade Kyle Rudolph heavily circulated the corners of the internet, but Minnesota put those rumors to rest by signing Rudolph to a four-year, $36M contract extension ($9.25M guaranteed). Second-round draft pick Irv Smith will now slide in behind the eight-year veteran as the TE2. Given the team’s heavy slot receiver usage with Adam Thielen, 12 personnel — two tight end sets — were a rarity for Minnesota last season, with them lining up in that formation just 16% of the time.
Advice: Rudolph’s extension was a death knell to Smith’s 2019 redraft fantasy value.
Bruce Anderson (-56.6)
Dropping all the way down to RB81, recent reports of Ronald Jones looking good in minicamp has taken a serious hit to Bruce Anderson’s bestball value. Anderson was picked up by the Buccaneers as an UDFA coming out of North Dakota State. Despite the unproductive nature of Jones and Peyton Barber last year, they still remain ahead of Anderson on the depth chart. The positive coming out of this drop in ADP (down to the 25th round), is that you can now get Anderson with one of your last picks and not have to invest much draft capital. The Buccaneers’ RB1 is far from decided at this point. If Jones or Barber continue to underperform like they did last year, don’t be surprised if Anderson sees some volume toward the second-half of the season.
Advice: A dart throw at this stage of the game (Round 25), Anderson is worth picking up as a potential flier.
Mecole Hardman (-53.5)
Mecole Hardman’s decline is a direct reflection of the rise in Tyreek Hill. Keep tabs on the Hill situation, but at this point, I’d much rather take an 11-round discount and grab Hardman in the 15th round. Hardman’s speed (4.33) could lead to some bestball spike weeks even on little volume.
Advice: Until we get concrete answers, I’d prefer taking shots on the cheaper of the two explosive playmakers on KC.
