Dylan Cease has one of the best arms in baseball. The minor league strikeout artist is on the precipice of making his first appearance of what he hopes will be a majorly successful career. Cease will start Wednesday for the White Sox against the Tigers. Is this the right time for the Sox to have promoted Cease? Will be punch out everyone? Will the lack of strike zone control be a detriment? Ray Flowers breaks down the potential “next one” on the hill.
23 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 190 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
|
2016 |
A- |
44.2 |
2-0 |
2.22 |
1.16 |
13.3 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
|
2017 |
A |
93.1 |
1-10 |
3.28 |
1.26 |
12.2 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
|
2018 |
A+, AA |
124.0 |
12-1 |
2.40 |
1.07 |
11.6 |
3.6 |
0.6 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
68.1 |
5-2 |
4.48 |
1.57 |
9.6 |
4.2 |
0.5 |
|
Career |
|
354.1 |
21-16 |
3.02 |
1.23 |
11.4 |
4.2 |
0.4 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2017 |
97th |
|
77th |
|
2018 |
|
47th |
61st |
|
2019 |
38th |
26th |
21st |
THE SKILLS
From the preseason Rookie Report on Cease.
There is a big fastball here that has led to 352 punchouts in 262 innings the last three seasons. Each stop along the way he’s lowered his way rate as well, from 6.0 to 5.0 to 4.2 to 3.6 per nine. Obviously, he still has a ways to go, especially with his curveball, which flashes as a plus/plus pitch, but at times is nowhere near the strike zone. When this pitch is on, it’s a hammer curveball par excellence. He’s also thrown just 52.1 innings above A-ball, though he’s already had Tommy John surgery, so that’s out of the way. The concerns about his changeup, his mechanics, and his lack of upper minor league work make it difficult to expect him to show up in the first half for the White Sox, and when he does his range of outcomes mirror that of Tyler Glasnow.
Let me be a bit clearer with some added detail.
Cease’s fastball routinely sits at 95 mph. He has upper end velocity that comes with a nearly effortless delivery as the ball comes out of his hand with extreme velocity. Further, the pitch has a good deal of downward sink to it when he locates at the knees, but when the ball is up in the zone it has good “life” to it. It’s why scouts often given the fastball an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has one of the best fastball’s in baseball. I have no issue with that comment. Cease also has that hammer curve, the 12-to-6 breaker, that can buckle a batter’s knees. The slider is a work in progress, as is the changeup. The biggest concern though is the lack of control that can rears it’s head at any point. We will get back to that in a moment.
So, what is the team saying right now?
“We’ve said all along Dylan Cease was going to get to Chicago based on what Dylan Cease is doing, not based upon what other players are doing,” said GM Rick Hahn. Really Rick? Has he paid attention to what Cease has been doing of late? I’m sure he has, but I guess he’s just going to ignore the recent work, despite saying the exact opposite, that is until he addressed the recent struggle. “”He has had a few outings, a few hiccups over his last few outings,” Renteria said. “I think more than anything, the way he’s dealing with them (has been impressive). We already know he has the stuff. He has a great mentality, a great mindset.” This is what we call “double-speak.” Can’t have it both ways Rick. Sorry.
Here is what Cease has done of late. You tell me if this performance suggests that the immensely talented Cease should be called up at this time.
In five June starts Cease has an 8.31 ERA.
In five June starts Cease has a 2.13 WHIP.
In five June starts Cease has a 7.41 K/9 rate.
In five June starts Cease has a 6.35 BB/9 rate.
In five June starts Cease has allowed a .338 batting average.
In five June starts Cease has averaged 3.5 innings per start.
Does that seem like a guy who has forced his way into the big leagues? Yeah, no… and that’s a real concern at the moment. Flatly, Cease is not on his game right now. Further…
Cease has a 1.78 WHIP against righties this season as they have hit .291 against him. He’s just not handing them well at the moment.
Cease has been murdered when he has fallen behind in the count. When ahead in the count batters have hit .232 as he’s posted a 0.81 WHIP. When he’s been behind in the count the marks are .333 and 3.17. Wow is right. Everyone slows when behind in the count, but a WHIP over 3.00? Is that gonna play at the big-league level? No, it ain’t.
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PLAYING TIME
The White Sox have said that Cease isn’t just coming up for a start, he’s in the bigs to stay. “You can safely say that we anticipate him being around,” Renteria said. Cease is now part of the White Sox rotation.
Over his last five games of more than one inning pitched, yeah 2-of-5 starts have been an innings or less, Cease has thrown at least 100 pitches every time out even though he’s thrown 5.0, 5.0 and 5.2 innings in three of the five outings. There are pitches here so he shouldn’t necessarily be on a pitch count. Let’s take a look at the innings pitched situation.
2016: 44.2 innings
2017: 93.1 innings
2018: 124.0 innings
2019: 68.1 innings
Cease has never thrown 125-innings in a season, but he has steadily increased his workload the past couple seasons. Currently on pace for about 140-innings pitched, Cease should have little issue getting to that level this season.
CONCLUSION
Cease will get to face the AL Central that, other than the Twins, doesn’t exactly possess elite offenses. He will be called up knowing that his spot in the rotation is locked in and that should bring some level of confidence. He’s also done a fantastic job keeping the ball in the yard to this point of his career as well. All of this is great, and the arm talent is immense. Where we could be if things go right – Cease could dominate.
Cease has great stuff no doubt, but the walks are way too high (4.21 per nine), he’s not getting righties out, he’s getting battered when behind in the count and his performance in June was hideous. That’s where we’re at right now. He’s just in a wonky spot at the moment. His arm talent and guaranteed rotation spot signal that he should be added I virtually every league. That said, blowing your FAAB budget on him is risky, for the reasons enumerated above. Could it all snap into place for Cease? Yes, it could. He could be on the scale from Zack Wheeler to Yu Darvish the rest of 2019 which speaks to the current level of volatility he brings.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
