You can’t move forward without knowing something about the past, or something like that. Part of our preseason package includes that look back to the 2018 NFL campaign, with individual articles about the Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver and the Tight End position (no one gives a crap about kickers, and defenses can change greatly with schematic/coaching/player moves). Is what you are about to read below 100 percent applicable to the player’s outlook in 2019? Probably not. There are role changes, coaching changes and personnel changes that have to be factored in. Still, there are likely to be more than a couple of nuggets in what resides below to help you construct a winning roster in 2019.
Here are the links to previous articles in the series:
LEAGUE NUMBERS
In 2018 wideouts caught 6,349 passes, the third most ever.
In 2018 wideouts produced 81,503 yards, the fourth most ever.
In 2018 wideouts scored 532 touchdowns, 98 more than in 2017 and the most ever.
There were 21 wideouts in 2018 who averaged 15 PPR points a game. There were just 10 men who reached that mark in 2017.
WIDE RECEIVER
The following men did not score a touchdown on a play inside the 10-yard line: Allen Robinson, Josh Gordon, DeVante Parker, Marquise Goodwin, DeSean Jackson.
The following men scored just one time in the red zone: Golden Tate, Donte Moncrief, Chris Hogan, D.J. Moore, Kelvin Benjamin, Jamison Crowder.
Davante Adams scored 12 times in the red zone last year, the most in football, as he caught 16-of-26 targets (no other wideout had more than eight RZ touchdowns). He led the league with 1.94 yards per route in the red zone last year. Adams also led all receivers in football by seeing 41.9 percent of his teams pass attempts in the RZ. Adams also scored six touchdowns inside the top-10, tied for the most in football. Adams was a top-20 PPR wideout in 14-of-15 outings. Further, he scored or went for 80-yards in all 15 games he played. That 15 games with 15 PPR points tied Jerry Rice’s all-time record.
Nelson Agholor scored four times last season, though three came the last two games. He caught 16-passes the first two games, but over his final 14 outings, he averaged just 3.4 receptions an outing. He had one game of 100-yards last season. He had four games with 80-yards but averaged only 46 yards a game, two yards below his mark in 2017.
Keenan Allen scored six times last season for the second time in his career. His best touchdown total is eight, set as a rookie in 2013. The last two seasons he’s caught 199 balls for 2,589 yards meaning his average effort has been 6.2 receptions and 99.5 yards a game. In 35 road games, he has 14 touchdowns. In 35 home games, he has 14 touchdowns. Allen has scored eight times the first two months of the season but 20 times the final two months of the season.
Danny Amendola has run just about 85 percent of his career snaps out of the slot. He has never scored more than four touchdowns. The last time he produced 675 receiving yards was 2010.
Robby Anderson’s average game the past two seasons is 56.4 yards and 0.43 touchdowns. He has scored 11 times at home but just four times on the road. Nine of his 14 scores have come on plays where the Jets had at least 10-yards to go for a first down.
Cole Beasley has never seen more than five end zone targets in a season. He’s also never scored more than five times while lining up just under 90 percent of the time out of the slot. By the way, he has seven scores the last two seasons, as he’s averaged a terrible 9.8 yards a reception. His teammate in Buffalo, John Brown, is fast. In fact, Brown leads the league with a 14.9 average depth of target amongst the 41 players who have seen at least 400-targets since 2014. He also scored five times last season after scoring five times the previous two seasons. That said, per 16 games the last three years, he’s averaged 40-597-4. Wow.
Odell Beckham was last in football last year with a 50 percent mark on his targets in terms of on-frame or in-stride. From Week 9 on last season, his new QB (B. Mayfield) was fourth in football in this measure. Baker also had a 107.6 QB Rating on passes of 20-yards. Eli Manning was a 60-last season. Per 16 games, ODB has averaged 106-1,485-12. However, with all the games he has missed in his career, he’s never actually had a season of 106 receptions or 1,485 yards.
Tyler Boyd’s out-route WR/QB rating was second best in football at 127.5 (D. Adames). He scored seven times last season after scoring three times the first two seasons. In fact, the numbers the first two seasons (72-828-3) nearly match his numbers in year three (70-1,028-7).
Antonio Brown is with the Raiders. The last six years he’s been a top-5 WR every season, and he’s been inside the top-2 five times. He is the only player in football history to have five or more seasons with 100-1,200. He’s done it 6-straight seasons. Brown was second from the bottom last year with 64 passes thrown his way that he didn’t catch.
Keelan Cole caught nine balls over the final eight games. He’s caught just 80 passes for four scores the last two seasons and has averaged a mere 2.5 receptions a game.
Brandin Cooks has produced 1,000 yards for three organizations the last four years. In each of those four seasons, he’s gone for a 1,000-yards, and his average effort in those four seasons is 77-1,149-7. He’s scored 12 times the last two seasons after scoring 17 times the two seasons prior. The last three seasons he’s seen 117, 114 and 117 targets.
Amari Cooper in 11 games with the Cowboys: 6-82-0.6 per game (playoffs included). That’s about 18 PPR points a game. Those numbers over 16 games would get you to 96-1,300-10. Only three men went 96-1,300-10 last season, and one of them was a tight end (T. Kelce).
Jamison Crowder was solid in 2016 and 2017 with at least 65 catches and 775 yards. He only played nine games last season. Crowder scored seven times in 2016. The other three years of his career he’s scored a total of seven times. He’s still never hauled in 70 passes in a season and the last two years he’s appeared in 24 games producing a 16-game average of 63-785-3.
Corey Davis breakout? He finished under 50-yards in 10-of-16 outings last season. Amazingly, he was still 6th in football in terms of the percentage of his team’s air yards that he saw at 35.9 percent. Davis went 65-891-4 last season, and through 27 career games, he has all of four receptions for scores. Though he caught 35 passes at home and a very similar 30 on the road last season, he averaged 14.9 yards per catch at home and just 12.3 on the road.
Stefon Diggs has been in the NFL for four seasons. He’s yet to appear in 16-games. He has one season of 910 yards as a result. He’s coming off the best effort of his career, 102-1,1021-9, and that was over 15 outings. In eight games on the road last season he averaged 7.8 receptions a game compared to 5.7 a game at home. He scored eight times against the NFC last season, and for his career, he averages 0.52 touchdowns per game against the NFC while averaging a paltry 0.15 scores per game against the AFC.
Julian Edelman has produced at least 10 PPR points in 24-of-25 games since the 2013 season when Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been on the field. Here is his average effort in those 25 games: seven receptions on 11 targets. Edelman has scored or produced 85-yards in 13 of his last 16 games (playoffs included). In those 16 outings, he’s caught 105 balls for 1,325 yards and six touchdowns. Edelman’s pace last season, over 16 games would lead to 99 receptions and 1,132 yards. Further, per 16 games since 2013, here are the average numbers from Edelman: 103-1,117-6.
Mike Evans set career bests in yards per game (95.3) and catch rate (62.3 percent). He is one of three wideouts to start his NFL career with 5-straight 1,000-yard efforts. He had a mere 2.1 yards of separation last season. He was tied for second in football with 16 catches of at least 25-yards. Last season, for the first time, his yards per target was over nine at 11.0. Evans scored 12 times in 2016, but over the last 31 games covering two seasons, he’s scored 13 times. Further, he’s been at five or fewer scores in 2-of-4 seasons and eight or less in 3-of-4.
Larry Fitzgerald has seen at least 100-targets in all 15 seasons of his career. In 3-of-4 seasons he’s caught at least 107 passes. Of course, he didn’t last season with 69 receptions. He’s scored exactly six touchdowns each of the past three years.
Robert Foster caught 27 balls for 541 yards as a rookie (20.0 yards per catch) with three scores. From Weeks 10-17 Foster saw 304 yards on passes in the air of at least 20-yards, the fourth most in football. He also led all wideouts in that time with a 23.6 yards per depth of target, and he led the league with an average targeted air yards of 20.6. When he was targeted Bills QBs produced a 142.3 QB Rating, fifth amongst WRs in football.
Devin Funchess will work with Andrew Luck. A third of Funchess career targets, with Mr. Newton, have been termed “off target” which is the fourth highest mark amongst the 53 men with at least 300 targets since Funchess joined the league. Luck was only off target on 13 percent of his throws last season. Funchess has 21 touchdowns in four seasons, with eight coming in 2017. In fact, 2017 is the only season of his career that he’s caught 45 passes, produced 550 yards or scored six times.
Chris Godwin went 59-842-7 in his age 22 campaign. That has only been 15 times in league annals by a wideout. Amongst the top-25 wideouts in PPR last season, Godwin was last in receptions, saw the third fewest targets and produced the third-fewest yards. Godwin was second amongst wideouts with 81.4 percent of his receptions going for a first down.
Kenny Golladay was fourth in football soaking up 37.3 percent of his team’s air yards on his way to a 70-1,063-5 line. Over his final eight games, he caught 40 balls for 586 yards and two scores, and that run included 5-straight games to end the season without a receiving score.
Josh Gordon has five scores his last 22 games. There. I mentioned him.
A.J. Green, the last three years, is averaging 17.1 PPR points per game on 9.5 targets an outing. Per 16 games played the last three years: 85-1,251-6. Green was third amongst wideouts with 80.4 percent of his receptions leading to a first down. The six times in his career that he’s appeared in 11 games or more, Green has gone for at least 1,000-yards. His pace last season over nine games, spread out over 16 outings, would give him a line of 82-1,234-11.
Tyreek Hill led all receivers with nine scores from the slot, two more than Adam Thielen. Hill also led the league with 22 receptions of at least 25-yards.
T.Y. Hilton’s average effort the last six years is 76-1,206-6. Last season he went 76-1,270-6. His career high in touchdowns is seven, and he’s been at six or fewer each of the last four seasons. Hilton only scored once on the road last season. In 2017 he scored once at home. He was tied for second in football with 16 catches of at least 25-yards last season.
Chris Hogan led wideouts last season with 4.1 yards of separation. He also caught just 35 passes as he failed for the fourth straight year to haul in 40-passes (his career best is 41 grabs). Hogan has one season of 550-yards as well. He’s past 30 years of age by the way.
DeAndre Hopkins led football with 15 targets inside the 10-yard line. He caught seven balls for four touchdowns. The last five years, he has seen the most endzone fades in football including four last season that he caught two scores on. Hopkins set career bests in receptions a game (7.2) and yards per game (98.3). Oh, and the last two seasons, Hopkins has seen 234 passes head his way from Deshaun Watson and he’s only dropped one of those passes as his average overall effort has been 109-1,523-12 (he didn’t drop a pass last season as he led the league with 25 contested receptions with those magical hands). Finally, he was second in football soaking up 44 percent of his team’s air yards.
Adam Humphries has 192 receptions the last three years, the 24th most in football as he’s averaged 64-690-3 the last three years. That said, he only has 12 end zone targets in his career and his average depth of target last season was just 6.2 yards. He did score a career-best five times last season after scoring four times his first 44 career games. He averaged 6.6 targets per game last season. However, the Titans don’t pass the ball frequently.
DeSean Jackson was second in the league in targeted air yards (19.6). Though well past 32 years of age, D-Jax can still motor, and last season he led the league with a four-year high yards per catch at 18.9 (the fourth time he’s led the league in 11 years). Alas, Jackson has averaged just 3.75 receiving scores a season the last four years, and the last time Jackson has played 16 games was way back in 2013. Heck, that the only time in 10-years he’s appeared in all 16 games.
Alshon Jeffery had back-to-back seasons of 1,000-yards in 2013-14. He hasn’t gotten there since. In fact, the last four seasons he hasn’t gotten to 850-yards. He’s scored 15 times the last two seasons though, and per 16 games with the Eagles, his numbers follow: 67-900-8.
Julio Jones has 21 games of 100-yards since 2016. No other player has more than 17 (A. Brown). Jones has led the NFL wideouts in yards run per route in 5-of-8 seasons including 4-of-5 seasons. He has also led the league in receiving yards per contest in 3-of-4 seasons. Jones led the league last season with 48 plays of at least 15 receiving yards, seven more than anyone else (M. Evans). Finally, Jones led football with 45.6 percent of the Falcons air yards last season.
Marvin Jones led the NFL with 18.0 receiving yards grab. The number dropped to 14.5 last season (career 15.0). Per 16 games as a Lion, he’s been there the past three years, Jones has averaged 60-1,016-7.
Zay Jones was second in football as he saw 39.5 percent of his teams pass attempts in the red zone. He scored five times on those 17 targets. Overall, he got in the end zone seven times on his 56 receptions. Moreover, he scored five of those touchdowns his last five games, and in three of those games, he was able to go for at least four receptions and 65 yards.
Christian Kirk was limited to 12 games as a rookie. He only scored three times, once his last four games.
Cooper Kupp was on his way to a season of 80-1,000-10 when he went down with the knee issue. He averaged 6.9 targets a game but had eight or more targets 4-of-8 times. Kupp was a top-5 PPR wideout through five games when his first injury hit as he scored an average of more than 20 points per game in that time.
Jarvis Landry saw 11.8 targets a game when Todd Haley was in charge of the offense last season (including double-digit targets in 7-of-8 games). When the team moved to Freddie Kitchens the passes dried up. In those eight games, he didn’t see 10 targets a single time and his average was 6.8 per outing. Landry produced 277 yards after the catch last season. The previous four seasons his lowest mark was 400, and his average YAC the previous four seasons was 531 yards, nearly double his rate last season. Landry also led the league with 68 passes thrown his way that weren’t caught.
Tyler Lockett went 57-961-10 last season on 70 targets (none of which were picked). That meant that he helped Russell Wilson to a 158.3 QB Rating last season, which is perfect. That said… (1) Lockett had two fewer catches than Danny Amendola and six fewer than Jordy Nelson. (2) Lockett’s 70 targets were doubled by nine wideouts. For goodness sakes, he has two fewer targets than Chester Rodgers and six fewer than Jermaine Kearse. (3) Lockett scored nine times his first three NFL seasons before exploding for 10 last season. Here are his yearly marks for receptions needed for one touchdown: 8.5, 41.0, 22.5 and 5.7. Another way. His first three seasons he scored every 15.2 catches. Last season the mark was every 5.7 targets. (4) Lockett averaged 14.3 receiving yards per target, the largest mark in 12-years, fully a yard better than ever before. (5) On the 23 passes that were in the air for at least 20-yards thrown his way, Lockett caught 18 for 663 yards and seven scores. All three marks easily led the league. (6) Lockett scored a single receiving score in 10 games to tie the all-time NFL record in ‘18. #ComeOn
D.K. Metcalf at the NFL Combine ran a faster 40-yard dash than Devin Hester, jumped higher than Odell Beckham, was more explosive than DeSean Jackson and… his 3-cone drill time (7.38) was slower than 208 quarterbacks tested since 2003.
Anthony Miller scored seven times as a rookie, even though he only caught 33 passes. He scored twice in October, twice in November and twice in December. Miller averaged 16.4 yards per reception at home and 10.2 on the road. He had one game of 122 yards, and not a single other game all season long of 50-yards. Playing through a shoulder issue, he caught four balls for 25 yards his last five outings.
Donte Moncrief scored seven times in 2016. The last two years he’s scored a mere five times over 28 games. He’s still looking for his first effort of 65 grabs or 750 yards. Antonio Brown is out of town though, and he takes with him an average of 162 targets the last three years, even though he missed four games in that time. Oh, and the Steelers threw the ball more than any team in football last year.
D.J. Moore was 12th amongst receivers with 427 yards after the catch. That means 54 percent of his yards came via his own wheels on his way to a 14.3 YPC mark on the season. Moore was held out of the end zone the last six games of the season, and over his final five games, his average effort was a mere 3.4 grabs and 44.6 yards.
Devante Parker was the top offensive player in training camp according to reports. LOL He’s scored twice his last 25 NFL games. The four years we’ve seen him on the field he’s basically done nothing to warrant fantasy attention.
Tim Patrick caught at least one 20-yard pass in each of the four games that Emmanuel Sanders missed last season. He only caught 23-of-41 passes thrown his way scoring just a single time on the season.
The Ravens in eight games with Lamar Jackson under center… their wideouts did nothing. Nothing. In those eight games, their entire wide receiver crew averaged 18.1 PPR points a game. That’s the worst mark in six NFL seasons by any wideout group.
Calvin Ridley caught passes at a QB Rating rate of 154.3 the first eight weeks of the season. In the end, the mark dipped to 125.8, though that was still the best amongst rookies wideouts. He also produced a Falcons’ rookie record of 10 receiving scores. Four of those touchdowns came in wins while six games in loses. Ridley also scored six times his first four games which obviously means that he scored just four times his last 10 games, though he did score in each of his final two outings. After Week 3, Ridley had only four games of 50 receiving yards.
Allen Robinson had the third fewest separation yards in football 2.0 behind only Kelvin Benjamin and Chad Williams. Robinson led football with 14 receiving scores in 2015, and he just hasn’t been that same guy since. He scored twice in 2016, hurt his knee in 2017, joined a new team in 2018, and overall, he’s gone for a mere 10 scores over 30 games.
Chester Rogers caught 53 balls in year three after 41 the first two seasons. Through 41 NFL games, he’s scored just three times, and he’s seen his yards per catch mark go down each year (14.4, 12.3 and 9.2).
John Ross has caught 21-of-60 targets for 210 yards in his career. Amazingly, he’s scored seven times.
Curtis Samuel’s five December games led to 40 targets. He went from no scores as a rookie to seven in year two (five receiving, two rushing).
Mohamed Sanu has been a very similar producer in three years in ATL. He’s seen between 81-96 targets the three years, catching between 59 and 67 passes. He also scored four, five and four times. One final note. He has seen his yardage total improve from 653, to 703 to 838.
Sterling Shepard scored eight times as a rookie. The last two years he’s done a boogie in the end zone six times. He’s seen his yardage total go up each season, but after peaking at 66.5 yards an outing in 2017 the mark dipped to 54.5 last season.
Juju Smith-Schuster and A. Brown were just the sixth set of teammates who went 100-1,000 in the same season. JSS led wideouts with 620 yards after the catch last season on his way to a massive season of 111-1,426-7. He’s scored seven times in both NFL seasons, and he caught 97-yard pass in each outing. Interestingly, he averages a massive 120.3 yards on the road last season but didn’t even get halfway there at home at 58.0 per outing. In 2017, he was at 69.5 yards at home and 62.5 on the road.
Willie Snead’s yards per catch the last four seasons: 14.3, 12.4, 11.5 and 10.5 last season.
Kenny Stills was fourth in football in targeted air yards last season (16.4). Still scored six times, a third season with at least that many, even though he had three-year lows in receptions (37) and yards (553).
Courtland Sutton led the Broncos wideouts in snaps from Week 9 on. Over his last eight games, he averaged three grabs for 48 yards (he scored twice). Sutton’s big issue last season though was the nine total in the drop column.
Golden Tate led the NFL last season by forcing 23 missed tackles on pass receptions. Last season, Tate was 4th in yards after the catch (minimum 50 targets). In 2017 Tate was third in YAC. In 2016 the mark was 2nd. In 2015 the mark was 10th. In 2014 the mark was 4th. In 2013 the mark was 1st. Last season was the first time in five years that he didn’t catch 90-passes with 74, but he has still averaged 90 receptions per 16 games over those five years. He only scored an average of 3.8 touchdowns a season.
Adam Thielen averaged 12.0 targets over the first eight games of the season. He saw 10 or more targets in 7-of-8 games to open the season before seeing only two more double-digit target efforts the rest of the way. The final eight games that share dropped all the way down to 7.1 targets a game. Thielen’s first eight games (74-925-6) vs. his last eight games (39-448-3) whoa massive difference in production. Still, he and S. Diggs became the seventh duo of wideouts to each catch 100 passes in the same season.
Michael Thomas tied for the league lead with six touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. Thomas led football with 24 receptions in the red zone. Thomas also led football with 12 catches inside the 10 (no one else had more than seven). Thomas has gone at least 90-1,110 in all three seasons, and his catch total (92, 104, 125) and yardage total (1,137, 1,245, 1,405) has gone up each year. He’s also scored nine times twice in three years (five the other season).
Dede Westbrook was the top wideout on the Jags last season (66-717-5) as he saw 101 targets. That average of 7.1 targets a game was only slightly above the 6.6 mark he had in seven games as a rookie. He caught 50-yards of passes a mere three times.
Mike Williams tied for the league lead with six touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. Williams caught 11 passes as a rookie, folks. Williams helped Philip Rivers post a 144 QB Rating on passes to Williams between 10-19 yards. Williams led football with 83.7 percent of his receptions leading to a first down. Williams saw 23 targets as a rookie. He caught 43 passes in year two. Hell, the guy went from 11 targets as a rookie to 10 touchdowns in year two.
Tyrell Williams has seen a downturn in his production the last two years. His target total by year (119, 69, 65). His reception total by year (69, 43, 41). His yardage total by years (1,059, 728, 653). He has averaged 5.3 receiving scores the last three years.
Robert Woods was tied for eight in football with 66 receptions for first down. He was a WR1 last season in PPR. Game 1 and Game 16 were the only two games he didn’t produce double-digit PPR points. In the middle, Woods caught at least four passed for 60 yards in every single game, and during that 14-game stretch his average effort was 5.8 receptions for 82.7 yards.