You can’t move forward without knowing something about the past, or something like that. Part of our preseason package includes that look back to the 2018 NFL campaign, with individual articles about the Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver and the Tight End position (no one gives a crap about kickers, and defenses can change greatly with schematic/coaching/player moves). Is what you are about to read below 100 percent applicable to the player’s outlook in 2019? Probably not. There are role changes, coaching changes and personnel changes that have to be factored in. Still, there are likely to be more than a couple of nuggets in what resides below to help you construct a winning roster in 2019.
Here are the links to previous articles in the series:
LEAGUE NUMBERS
Over the last decade, no season produced more PPR points for the running back than last season. At the same time, the touch total for backs last season was at a decade low. So, what gives? It wasn’t carries or rushing touchdowns that set the record (the league average of 25 carries per game was the lowest of the 21st century). At the same time, the 4.40 YPC mark last season was a decade high. It was the receptions though. Last season there were 118 receiving scores by backs, an all-time record. Last season there were the most receptions by running backs, ever as well. Backs also tied the decade high with a 21.5 percent target share of the passing plays. Hey, it’s a passing league.
Here is a chart of 250 and 300 carry men, as well as 50 and 70 catch backs, in years of the recent past.
|
250 Carries |
300 Carries |
50 Catches |
70 Catches |
|
|
2005 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
|
2010 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
|
2015 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
3 |
|
2016 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
2 |
|
2017 |
8 |
1 |
14 |
4 |
|
2018 |
6 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
The last two years in a PPR setup, 18 of the top-24 point producers were selected in the top-2 rounds of the draft.
The median age of the top-24 point producers the last two years is 24, and LeSean McCoy was the oldest at 29 years of age in 2017.
Todd Gurley was the top point producer from Week 1 to Week 15. He didn’t play the last two games of the regular season. In fact, six of the top 18 back in PPR points, heading into Week 17, didn’t play that final week.
RED ZONE RUNNING
Here are the ground touchdown leaders in the red zone: Gurley 17, Kamara 13, Henry 10 and Conner 10.
Here are the ground touchdown leaders inside the 10-yard line: Gurley 14, Kamara 11, Henry/Conner/Carson 9, Mack/Howard 8.
Here are the ground touchdown leaders inside the 5-yard line: Gurley/Conner 9, Kamara/Henry 8, Carson/Mack/Howard/Mixon/D.Johnson/Hunt/McCaffrey 6.
Saquon Barkley converted just 5-of-16 carries inside the 5-yard line for scores. That said, he received 80 percent of the Giants’ carries inside the five. That mark was third in football behind Chris Carson 86.7 and David Johnson 100 percent.
Ezekiel Elliott had just three scores inside the 10-yard line and two inside the 5-yard line.
Melvin Gordon had four carries inside the five, producing three scores. Kapri Bibbs and Alex Armah had four carries inside the 5-yard line.
Alvin Kamara had just 39.4 percent of the Saints carries inside the five, but still scored eight times. The other three men with eight scores in that zone all had at least 56.6 percent of their teams Green Zone carries.
THE RUNNING BACK
7: The drop total of Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and David Johnson. That was one off the league leader, T.J. Yeldon who dropped eight.
Peyton Barber forced 43 missed tackles, the second most in football.
Saquon Barkley became the third rookie running back to produce 2,000 scrimmage yards. He also produced the most receptions by a rookie RB ever (91). Per ESPN Scoring, Saquon was the second most productive rookie PPR back behind only the 1983 effort of Eric Dickerson. Barkley produced 861 yards after contact as a runner, the fourth most the last 12 years for a running back. Barkley also created 31 missed tackles forced as a receiver, the most for any rookie RB the last 12 years. He also led the league with 71 broken tackles on the year. Reports suggest he broke 14 defensive players ankles as well. 
Le’Veon Bell is first in NFL history in yards from scrimmage per game at 129.0 (minimum 50 games). He didn’t play a game last season. From 2013-17 he missed 18 of 80 games, or more than three missed games per season on average. In fact, he averaged 12.4 games per season those five years. Add in 2018 and Bell, since drafted, has averaged 10.3 games per NFL season. During his last season, 2017, he averaged 4.02 yards per carry, a mark that was below the league average. In that season, he also averaged 1.82 yards after contact, also below the league average. Adam Gase used a committee in Miami last year in the backfield. During his three seasons in Miami, his backs ranked 27th in carries, though third in YPC (4.5), and they produced a bottom five number in terms of fantasy points created. A further concern is the fact Gase doesn’t run around the goal line. Last season the Dolphins were last in football in carries inside the five-yard line. They have 23 carries in the Green Zone, and the next lowest total was 39. Hell, the league average was 50 such carries. Fifty. Bell has never run for 10 scores in a season, has averaged seven rushing scores in his five active seasons and he has never carried the ball more than seven times in the Green Zone in any season of his career.
LeGarrette Blount averaged 2.71 yards per carry last season on 154 carries. In 2016 Blount led the league with 18 rushing scores, and he averaged 4.4 YPC in 2017.
James Conner had 2.6 yards after contact and 0.16 missed tackles per rushing attempt last season. The previous two years the man he replaced, Lev Bell, was at 0.26 and 0.16, or, exactly the same as Conner. From Weeks 2-13, an 11-game stretch, Conner was the sixth most productive PPR back in football. Per game, on the year, and don’t forget we’re tossing in games with injuries, Conner averaged 16.5 carries, 74.8 rushing yards, 4.2 catches, 38.2 yards as a pass catcher, and one touchdown. That’s an overall average of 21 touches, 113 scrimmage yards and a score.
Nick Chubb averaged 4.40 YPC after contact last season, the highest mark since the measure has been tracked (12 years). Chubb was third in football in forced missed tackles per attempt behind the retired Marshawn Lynch and his teammate Kareem Hunt. From Weeks 7-17 Chubb ran for 797 yards, second-most in the league behind only E.Elliott. Chubb averaged 5.8 YPC at home, 4.7 on the road. Chubb averaged 5.2 YPC in wins and 5.1 YPC in loses. Chubb averaged 4.8 YPC against the AFC and 6.3 against the NFC. Chubb averaged 5.2 YPC out of the huddle. He averaged 5.8 YPC out of the shotgun, and 5.0 on plays under center.
Tarik Cohen has averaged 4.4 YPC for his career. He’s also averaged 93 carries a season the two years, meaning his average effort on the ground, per game, is 5.81 carries and 25.4 rushing yards. Over his final nine games last season he had more than 30 rushing yards one time. Over those nine games, he caught 41 balls for 327 yards. However, he went 12-156 in one of the games as a pass catcher, and over the last four games, he caught a total of 12 passes for 66 yards, as he just wasn’t involved, at all.
Tevin Coleman moves to the Niners. He is coming off his best season of 800-yards. His 4.8 YPC mark was also a career best. Still, he scored only four times on the ground, and nine times the last two years, after scoring eight times on the ground in 2016.
Dalvin Cook forced 28 missed tackles as a runner on just 133 carries (Mixon forced 29 on 103 extra carries). In two injury-filled campaigns, Cook has appeared in 15 games with 969 rushing yards, four rushing scores, and a 51-395-2 line as a pass catcher. The number of backs that ran for 950-yards with 50 catches last season was five (Conner, Gurley, Elliott, Barkley and McCaffrey).
Kenneth Dixon led the NFL last year in missed tackles forced per touch. He was also first in the league in 2016 (he missed the 2017 season).
Kenyan Drake is third in the NFL in yards per carry the last three years (4.75) behind only Alvin Kamara (5.13) and Mark Ingram (4.91). He’s yet to be given 135-carries in a season. He has but three games in his career with 15 carries, and the numbers are impressive: 21.3 carries and 104 yards at 4.9 YPC. From 2007-17, amongst backs who carried the ball 100 times, no one averaged more yards after contact than Drake (4.29). Drake produced 1,012 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns last season.
Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball for at least 15-yards 25 times last season, the most in football. However, Elliott produced just 36.7 percent of his rushing yards on 15-yard runs, the lowest mark in the top-3 (45.9 and 54.0), so it wasn’t just long runs. Joe Mixon (23), Saquon Barkley (20) and Todd Gurley (20), Chris Carson (17) followed. Elliott has led the NFL in rushing yards per game each of the last three years. He saw 77 targets as a pass catcher heading into last season when he saw 95. He was also targeted on 26 percent of the routes he ran, well above the 17 percent the previous two seasons. Elliott has averaged 4.55 yards per carry at home in his career and 4.79 on the road. In the 28 wins he’s participated he’s averaged 4.93 YPC. In the 12 loses, the number drops to 2.93. In wins, he averaged 1.07 touchdowns; and in losses, the number is 0.33.
Leonard Fournette’s average effort per game is 19.1 rushes and 2.8 receptions. That’s 21.9 touches a game, a massive workload that would equate to 350-touches over 16 outings. He produces 70.4 yards on the ground, and 23.2 as a pass catcher, for a 16-game total of 1,126 yards on the ground and 371 receiving for 1,497 scrimmage yards. He’s also averaged 10.7 rushing scores per 16 games. He’s appeared for just 21-of-32 games, or 65.6 percent of the time he’s been active. That means he’s missed a third of the potential games the Jaguars have played in two seasons.
Devonta Freeman scored 22 times on the ground in 2015-16 (11 times each season). From 2015-17 he scored 29 times on the ground. Since the start of 2015, through the end of last year, Freeman has averaged 4.4 YPC and per 16 games he’s averaged 239-1,044-10 on the ground. He’s also averaged 57 receptions per 16 games over the four seasons. He’s always been a touchdown maven at home with 23 scores in 30 home games compared to 14 in 33 games on the road. He’s a big key for the Falcons too as he has four rushing scores in 30 loses but 26 rushing scores in 33 wins.
Todd Gurley had two games last year with 130 rushing yards (CJ Anderson had two games with 130 rushing yards as well). Gurley produced 372 PPR points in 14 games played, just 8.4 points short of his 2017 mark in 15 games to become the 5th back to ever post back-to-back seasons of 370 points. His total of 26.6 PPR points a game is the 10th most for a back ever. Gurley has led the league in rushing scores the past two seasons with 13 and 17, and he’s added another 10 scores as a pass catcher, an average of 20 total touchdowns per season.
Derek Henry averaged 0.71 yards before contact, the fourth-lowest mark in football. He was the second best in football in yards after contact at 4.21 per carry. Henry produced more points from Week 14-17 than he did from Week 1-13 last season. That’s because he was under 60-yards in 8-straight games to open the season. He ran for 434 yards his first 11 games. In five September games, he scored eight rushing scores, this after four touchdowns his first 11 games. Henry also ran for 625 yards in five games in December. If we take away Week 13 his season numbers would be eight rushing scores and 821 yards (4.15 YPC) on the year. By the way, Henry is the only one of the nine men who ran for 1,000-yards last season who had single-digit runs of at least 15-yards (he had nine). So much for that vaunted long speed so many folks talk about. The only other back out of the 16 who ran for 900 yards who was in the single digits was David Johnson (five). Henry has a total of 46 targets as a pass catcher – in his career.
Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders will fight for work in the Eagles backfield. Be cautious when you hear that either player will see workhorse levels of the football. HC Doug Pederson has been at the helm for 53 regular and playoff games. Only four times in those 53 games has a back touched the ball 20 times on the ground. There have only been seven games out of the 53 when a back has carried the ball 17 times. It would be a shock if Howard carried the ball 250-times this season for a fourth straight campaign at that level.
Mark Ingram’s average effort the last three years, per 16 games: 191-937-8 at 4.9 YPC. He’s also caught an average of 45 passes for an additional 329 yards. After Lamar Jackson became their quarterback last season, the Ravens ran the ball 64 percent of the time. The also went from 3.61 YPC before Jackson to 5.09 YPC with Jackson under center.
David Johnson’s snaps out of the slot or out wide by season: 2015 (18 percent), 2016 (20 percent), 2017 (13 percent) and 2018 (seven percent). Johnson had 13 receptions last year of at least 15-yards, third at the RB spot (McCaffrey 15, Gurley 14). He was widely viewed as a fantasy flop by those that ignored our advice and drafted him way too early. In, he scored 10 times and caught 50 passes with 900 rushing yards. Do you know how many backs hit all three of those numbers? Five (McCaffrey, Barkley, Gurley, Conner). Again, his “failure” was merely a result of folks not understanding the team situation he was dealing with.
Duke Johnson’s touches per game: 2015 (10.3), 2016 (7.9), 2017 (9.8) and last year (5.4). He had one game in 2018 with 10 touches.
Kerryon Johnson averaged 5.4 YPC last season. From his first game with double-digit carries in Week 3 his average per game effort was 13.1 carries for 72.6 yards. He only had three games with 15 carries.
Aaron Jones has picked up 29 percent of his carries on outside zone runs the last two years. His 5.23 YPC mark on those plays is 5th out of nearly 40 qualifiers. New HC Matt LaFleur figures to utilize this set an awful lot in 2019. Jones averaged 5.5 YPC as a rookie, and the mark was 5.5 in 2018 as well. That’s 214 carries for 1,176 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores.
Ronald Jones had an awful rookie season. He saw five touches and 18 snaps the last eight games of the Bucs season.
Alvin Kamara will be the lead back, yet again, for the Saints. Kamara lost 1.5 YPC from year one to year two (4.6). Per 16 games played, Kamara has averaged a mere 832 rushing yards. Kamara pushed his total of eight rushing scores to 14, and he’s scored 31 times in 31 career games. He’s also caught 81 passes in back-to-back seasons, but he lost 1.4 yards per catch last season (8.8). Kamara as a 4.8 YPC mark at home versus 5.5 on the road for his career. In eight September games, he’s averaged just 4.2 YPC. Moreover, in games number 13-16 the mark is even lower at 3.9. Kamara has scored five times in two games against the Rams and six times in four games against the Bucs. Latavius Murray is now a Saint. His highest YPC mark the last four seasons is 4.13. Still, given his usage, he’s scored a lot. Since 2015, Murray is second in the NFL with 32 rushing scores. Murray is also fifth in carries inside the 5-yard line in that time (40 total). Here is how the Saints have ranked in PPR leagues at the running back position the last few years: 2011 (1st), 2012 (1st), 2013 (2nd), 2014 (1st), 2015 (2nd), 2016 (1st), 2017 (1st) and 2018 (1st).
Dion Lewis forced 31 missed tackles as a runner, 12th most in football. That’s the same total as Todd Gurley, though Lewis had 101 fewer carries.
Phillip Lindsay didn’t have a game with 20 carries last season, but he still ran for 1,037-yards. He produced 451 of his yards after contact and averaged 5.4 YPC on the year. In six wins the mark was a whopping 7.1, while it dropped to 4.0 in nine losses. Lindsay forced 22 missed tackles. None of the other eight men who ran for 1,000-yards had a mark lower than 29.
Marlon Mack ran for 908 yards (4.7 YPC) and nine scores, even though he missed 4-of-5 games to start the year with injury. He was the same guy wherever he was. At home (4.69 YPC with five rushing scores) and on the road (4.62 YPC with four rushing scores) he was virtually the same producer. He finished strong with 10 touchdowns his last 10 games.
Christian McCaffrey won leagues last year, simply because of his usage. McCaffrey missed 30 snaps in total, from Week 1-16. That’s obviously two missed snaps a game (don’t forget about the Bye Week). Overall, CM was on the field for 76 more snaps than any other back (E.Elliott). CM also led the league, from Weeks 1-16, in routes run per game by a running back at 28.8 (two tenths more than S.Barkley). He caught 107 passes in his second season, the most by a running back ever (he has 25 more receptions than any back the last two years). In the end, he ran for 1,000-yards and caught 100 passes to become the third player to ever do that (Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson) He upped his yards after contact mark on the ground in year two by 0.8 yards as well (2.9). In 16 games he ran for 80-yards four times and averaged 68.6 yards per game on the ground.
Sony Michel was fourth in rushing yards, third in yards after contact and third in missed tackles forced amongst rookie backs. Per game, he ran for 71.6 rushing yards and 0.75 rushing scores, a 16-game pace of 1,146 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores. Michel scored five times at home on the ground, but only once on the road. He didn’t have a rushing score in five loses with all six coming in the eight victories he participated in.
Lamar Miller’s average effort the last five years: 225-981-6 on the ground with 37 receptions. The last three years he’s averaged 239-978-4. He gets work, but he doesn’t get in the end zone very frequently. 
Joe Mixon ran the ball 237 times last season, the most by a Bengals since the 2012 season. Mixon also became the first 1,000-yard rusher since 2014. Mixon averaged just 2.8 yards after contact 28th at the RB position last year. That was actually the same mark as Melvin Gordon and Marlon Mack. Mixon improved as the year wore on too, averaging 5.0 YPC from Game 9 on.
Rashad Penny was the second-best rookie RB in terms of yards after contact at 3.40 (behind Chubb). Even though he had only 85 carries, Penny still had 13 runs of 10-yards.
Adrian Peterson’s points per game last year in wins (16.7) and loses (8.5). Peterson was tied for first in football with 45 missed tackles forced on rushes.
Jalen Richard was second in the league last year in yards per route run at RB (2.26). Richards has failed to run for 280-yards the last two seasons, though he did catch 68 passes last season after grabbing 56 the first two seasons. Interestingly, he has a 5.3 YPC mark for his career and the rate was 4.7 last season. He just never carries the ball averaged 5.3 attempts per game for his career.
James White led backs with 1.53 fantasy points per touch last year. White also led backs with 2.81 yards per route run in the playoffs while he was sixth in the regular season (1.84). White caught a career-best 87 balls last season, and over the last three years, he’s averaged 68 receptions a campaign. White scored 12 times last season, seven as a pass catcher. He scored 11 times the previous two years. Further, he has scored from nine or fewer yards out on 15-of-26 career touchdowns. Of his last eight scores last season, six came from the eight-yard line in.
Damien Williams was tremendously successful last year, just like all lead backs are in an Andy Reid offense. Year after year we make this point, and year after year, for some completely unknown reason, people argue that point (the #2 back the past 10 years in Reid’s offense has only two seasons of 150 touches, and the last two years the backup back has a total of 118 touches). Williams averaged 5.1 YPC last season, and the last three games of the regular season he averaged 6.0 YPC carry as he scored four times (three rushing). He then scored four more times in two playoff games giving him eight total touchdowns his final five games of the 2018 season.
Zach Zenner ran for at least 45-yards each of his last four outings. He had a 4.81 YPC mark on the year.
