Welcome to the weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
WEEK 15 PREVIEW
At this point, the name of the game is ‘survive’. Not just through this week for a much-needed All-Star Break rest. But for the 12 periods of FAAB that follow this weekend. Absolutely no one is safe. As first-half studs like Trevor Story and Hunter Pence make it back into lineups, those with Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna now throw their hands in the air with despair. Likely no one is more frustrated than the Giancarlo Stanton owner. After the long wait for his return, we got a full week out of him before hitting the IL yet again for what may be another six weeks. I’ve been preaching it since April: be mindful of your bid amounts, especially if you have less than 20% of your FAAB budget remaining. With the rate of these injuries, those dollars are going to be incredibly handy with much more carnage to come and for that final month of the season when we’re chasing specific categories and when roster expansion occurs.
It’s going to be hard to project rotations beyond this week so this weekend’s focus with bidding needs to be about plugging holes in your offense and pitching for this final week before the ASB. If you’re struggling with your C2 decision wading through the waters of the likes of Austin Barnes, Chance Sisco, Edwin Diaz, Brian McCann, Roberto Perez, et al, perhaps you want to look beyond this week and to the first couple weeks of schedule after the break. What ballparks are they visiting? Is there any edge for us to gain simply by looking at opponents? A borderline player facing Royals and Orioles’ pitchers isn’t necessarily guaranteed a better offensive week than if he’s going to face rotations of the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, but the odds are better. Take advantage of every little edge you can get.
As for this weekend’s bidding, the flavors of the week appears to be new closer Carlos Martinez and 2017’s fourth overall pick, Brendan McKay. A high-pedigreed southpaw, McKay has been a two-way stud in the Rays’ system as both hitter and pitcher. His MLB debut Saturday was a studly effort – a one-hitter for six scoreless innings and a season-high 83 pitches (never above 67 pitches in any of his few Triple-A starts). The gem only solidifies what was already expected to be a popular FAAB addition this weekend. With Tyler Glasnow delayed even longer now and Brent Honeywell not returning this season, McKay has a very good possibility of sticking in Rays’ rotation. That, in and of itself, is worth its price in gold for teams desperate for pitching and even teams that aren’t and simply want additional depth.
TWO-START PITCHERS
TIER 1 – Locked in, all formats
- Trevor Bauer (RH/CLE) – @ KC, @ CIN
- Patrick Corbin (LH/WAS) – v MIA, v KC
- Charlie Morton (RH/TBR) – v BAL, v NYY
- Mike Minor (LH/TEX) – v LAA, @ MIN
- Dallas Keuchel (LH/ATL) – v PHI, v MIA
- Buehler or Stripling (RH/LAD) – v ARI, v SDP
- Jack Flaherty (RH/STL) – @ SEA, @ SFG
- Jake Odorizzi (RH/MIN) – @ OAK, v TEX
- David Price (LH/BOS) – @ TOR, @ BOS
A bunch of locks for us with Flaherty the one who we shockingly trust the least at this point. Flaherty has been bludgeoned over his last five starts (20 ER, 9 HR), currently rocking a 4.75 ERA. The two starts on paper look safe enough, and it’s truly hard to sit our SP2 unless our bench is incredibly stacked and we’re truly worried. Still not sure how the Dodgers’ rotation will shake out and whether it’s Stripling or Buehler who gets two starts. Either way, you’re starting Buehler in all formats whether he goes Tuesday or Wednesday. The issue with Stripling is that it’s not a true start for him since Julio Urias basically splits those starts with him. Stripling is basically a glorified opener (you hope for three solid innings) and that significantly depresses odds of getting a ‘W’ out of him.
TIER 2 – Use for 15-teamers, Situational for 12-teamers
- C.C. Sabathia (LH/NYY) – @ NYM, @ TBR
- Matthew Boyd (LH/DET) – @ CHW, v BOS
- Zac Gallen (RH/MIA) – @ WAS, @ ATL
- Nick Pivetta (RH/PHI) – @ ATL, @ NYM
- Joe Musgrove (RH/PIT) – v CHW, v MLW
- Griffin Canning (RH/LAA) – @ TEX, @ HOU
- Jeff Samardzija (RH/SFG) – @ SDP, v STL
Sabathia skips the series in London and will instead get two starts this week. Do like both of them against offenses that more or less struggle against left-handed pitching. Well, Pete Alonso (.500 ISO v LHP) certainly doesn’t, but without Alonso, this is a middle-of-the-road offense against lefties. Outside of Yandy Diaz who is cold right now, no one on this Rays’ lineup has hit lefties well. The fact that these games aren’t in Yankee Stadium helps. After Sabathia and Boyd, the list gets dicey. Gallen has looked sharp thus far but those two road starts aren’t pretty. Either way, you’re taking your chances. The Pivetta two-step is scary too and I wouldn’t blame you for sitting him but you’ll likely be giving up 10-plus strikeouts. Canning would be in the first tier without question but it does not get any tougher than @ TEX, @ HOU so we proceed with caution.
TIER 3 – Situational based on your ratios or wins/K’s
- Wade LeBlanc (LH/SEA) – v STL, v OAK
- Daniel Mengden (RH/OAK) – v MIN, @ SEA
- Trent Thornton (RH/TOR) – v KC, v BAL
- Tyler Mahle (RH/CIN) – v MLW, v CLE
- Logan Allen (LH/SDP) – v SFG, @ LAD
- Chase Anderson (RH/MLW) – @ CIN, @ PIT
An interesting batch of guys all with their warts. LeBlanc has a solid 5% walk rate but that second start against an offense that’s top-five versus lefties is cause for concern. For Padres’ rookie southpaw Allen, that first start against the Giants isn’t too shabby but the second one against the Dodgers on the road certainly is. Mahle faces some scary lefties (Yelich, Moustakas) and switch-hitters (Lindor, Ramirez, Santana) so he too could have a tough time next week. The best start ‘on paper’ is Thornton’s.
TIER 4 – Frisky and Risky (tread carefully)
- Ariel Jurado (RH/TEX) – v LAA, @ MIN
- Jake Junis (RH/KCR) – v CLE, @ WAS
- Clayton Richard (LH/TOR) – v KCR, v BAL
- Reynaldo Lopez (RH/CHW) – v DET, v CHC
- Dylan Bundy (RH/BAL) – @ TBR, @ TOR
- Trevor Williams (RH/PIT) – v CHW, v MLW
Really don’t want to head into the All-Star Break with higher ratios than I came into the week with, so all of these guys are essentially ‘avoids’ for me. You might be able to get away with the Bundy two-step though.
TIER 5 – Avoid Outright
- Trevor Cahill (RH/LAA) – @ TEX, @ HOU
- Glenn Sparkman (RH/KCR) – @ TOR, @ WAS
CLOSERS / SINGLE START SPs
- Carlos Martinez (RP/STL) – The saves you’ve been waiting for! Can you afford him? C-Mart steps in as the ninth-inning man for the Cardinals now that Hicks is out for the year with TJS. His overall career numbers are fantastic (3.37 ERA, 0.71 HR/9) with the only issue ever being issuing too many free passes. Very doubtful that you’ll be able to sneak him onto your team for cheap with there still being active managers in your league in need of closers.
- Scott Oberg (RP/COL) – Oberg has been the team’s best reliever (1.99, 0.96, 28% K) as manager Bud Black will be looking to move on from current closer Wade Davis and his 6.00 ERA.
- Michael Lorenzen (RH/CIN) – Nabbed the save on Friday and now has the team’s last three as Rasiel Iglesias last got one on June 9. I’d prioritize Lorenzen over Oberg but only ever so slightly.
- Brendan McKay (LH/TBR) – Most of this week’s big bids will be either C-Mart or McKay. For those with hefty amounts of FAAB dollars left in 15-teamers and in need of SP help, McKay could be worth a low triple-digit bid. You’ll see some triple-digit bids in 12-teamers as well for teams that have money to spend.
- Jesse Chavez (RH/TEX) – Now a part of the rotation, Chavez boasts a 2.79 ERA (but a 4.16 xFIP) as he cruised through a 6.1 IP scoreless gem (7 K) earlier this week. Keep in mind that was a pathetic Tigers’ lineup he faced. He could fare well Sunday against the Rays and would then line up for the Twins next week. Much safer than many of the Tier 4 and 5 two-start pitchers we’ve listed.
SCHEDULE NOTES
RENTALS
- Red Sox – A nice set of six road games (@ TOR, @ DET) but almost all of the relevant Boston offensive players are owned. Jackie Bradley Jr. may be available in your 12-teamers as is Brock Holt who is back from a quick IL stint. All in all, not much to spend more than a buck or two for unless you’re desperate for a filler this week.
- Indians – Only five games but they’ll see four right-handed pitchers which means we can still use Jason Kipnis and Tyler Naquin in deeper leagues. Bobby Bradley is a big slugger who could have success against the likes of Jake Junis, Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Mahle (all of whom have had struggles against left-handed hitters).
- Pirates – Seven games at home for Pittsburgh and somehow Kevin Newman is still only 34% owned in 12-team OC’s. He’s hitting .333 with 3 HR, 4 SB over the past month and leading off every day. Expecting them to see at least five right-handed pitchers, lefty 3B Colin Moran is in play as a streamer in 12-teamers if you need one. Lefty Corey Dickerson needs to be added everywhere he is available.
- Blue Jays – Toronto plays seven this week and get the Orioles over the weekend. Eric Sogard has been hitting lefties (.381 wOBA, .259 ISO) even better than he has righties (.356, .167) and, like Newman, is entrenched in the leadoff spot. Catcher Danny Jansen has been a huge bust as a top-10 catcher selected among the top 200 overall in spring drafts. Though he has only himself to blame, he has been victimized by a .229 BABIP but there’s still no excuse for a .184 BA and .269 OBP. I do believe he will get going at some point and now may be a good time to jump aboard – available in 47% of 15-team Main Event leagues.
- Athletics – Some of these A’s bats can be plucked off FAAB whenever we see a bevy of southpaws coming up. That’s the case this week where they may be scheduled to see four-of-six (Perez – MIN, Kikuchi/Gonzales/LeBlanc – SEA). That means guys like Chad Pinder and Mark Canha are viable streamers for this week only.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Francisco Mejia (SW/SDP), Danny Jansen (RH/TOR)
Corner Infielders – Bobby Bradley (LH/CLE), Mark Canha 1B/OF (RH/OAK), Dominic Smith (LH/NYM)
Middle Infielders – J.P. Crawford (LH/SEA), Tommy Edman (SW/STL), Luis Rengifo (RH/LAA)
Outfielders – Anthony Santander (SW/BAL), Alex Dickerson (LH/SFG), Chad Pinder OF/2B (RH/OAK), Ben Gamel (LH/MLW), Daniel Palka (LH/CHW), Manuel Margot (RH/SDP)
Mejia is a far superior hitter to Austin Hedges so it only makes sense to have seen him getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate, and going forward. Canha and Pinder were mentioned in the ‘rentals’ section as hitters to target for all of the lefties upcoming. Crawford is nestled in the two-hole for the Mariners and is hitting .429 with 9 RBI this past week – he’s the most viable MI add in 15-teamers. Nothing to get too excited about longterm with the OF’s listed though Dickerson offers some power against right-handed pitchers and Gamel is insurance for Lorenzo Cain if his hand is not fully healed. Margot has been playing more lately and has peppered in some stolen bases, for those desperate.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC OC leagues
Catchers – Francisco Mejia (SW/SDP), Chance Sisco (LH/BAL)
Corner Infielders – Colin Moran (RH/PIT), Maikel Franco (RH/PHI), Matt Adams (LH/WAS)
Middle Infielders – Kevin Newman (RH/PIT), Eric Sogard (LH/TOR), Garrett Hampson (RH/COL), Jose Iglesias (RH/CIN),
Outfielders – Corey Dickerson (LH/PIT), Jackie Bradley Jr (LH/BOS), Jason Heyward (LH/CHC), Brian Anderson OF/3B (RH/MIA)
