Arrieta is just average, maybe. Corbin is missing bats and has been good, without matching last season. Boyd has hit the skids, but should you panic with the lefty from Detroit? The Braves’ Fried has been solid, but… Gibson has quietly been pretty darn effective. What has Keuchel looked like his first two starts? Marquez is solid, but he continues to look for the difference making skills some thought he possessed. Odorizzi is starting to, predictably, slow. Paxton is struggling again. Consider me shocked. Strahm is a mess – homers and hits. Vargas has been borderline dominant for a long while, and it’s shocking. Wainwright keeps taking the ball, with moderate success.
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Jake Arrieta has become a messy start. He’s gone at least six innings in 3-straight outings. He has two quality starts but also another effort with five runs allowed in that time. He’s also allowed eight homers his last five outings, has walked 4.23 batters per nine (awful) while striking out 5.20 batters per nine (horrible). We’re 16 starts in to the ’19 season and he’s 7-6 with a 4.33 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and just 6.91 K/9 leading to a 1.92 K/BB ratio. There’s nothing going on here to suggest that he’s anything other than a streaming option in mixed leagues. Nothing. In fact, the same can be said if we look at his numbers since the start of last season. If you’re looking to use him, make sure the opponent isn’t stacking lefties against him as they have hit 11 homers off him leading to a .530 SLG and a .380 wOBA.
Patrick Corbin got bombed for seven runs against the White Sox as his ERA moved past four. The last two times he’s thrown seven innings and allowed one run. He’s also struck out eight and nine batters. The ERA is back down to 3.71 and the WHIP sits at 1.16. He’s still punching out more than 10 batters per nine, has a 2.99 BB/9 rate and a 1.18 HR/9 rate. Truth is that he doesn’t look appreciably different than last season, but everyone should have known that the odds of him matching his overall game from last season were small.
Matthew Boyd has a 3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, a massive 11.42 K/9 rate and a similarly impressive 6.45 K/BB ratio. If you missed the first three months of the season living in a tropical paradise with a playmate (that’s my dream), and you returned to see those numbers you would say something like – wow, impressive. However, if you own Boyd you might be looking at his recent work with some concern. Over his last five outings he’s permitted at least three earned runs each time, and in 3-of-4 outings he’s allowed at least two homers, and over his last three trips to the bump he’s allowed seven homers, 14 runs (13 earned) in 17 innings resulting in an 0-2 record with a 6.88 ERA. Panic time? “I’m just going to forget about the rest of the (recent) starts,” manager Ron Gardenhire said after his last outing. “This was a good start. Just got some balls up against a team that hits the ball in the seats.” There’s certainly some leveling off here with Boyd, as it should be admitted that he was pitching over his head. Boyd had a 1.43 HR/9 rate last season, and the mark for his career sits at 1.54. Therefore, it’s not overly surprising to see that his current mark is now up to 1.50. He’s still not issuing walks, and the K/9 rate is massive (13.7 percent swinging strike rate which is 3.5 percent better than ever before), but Boyd simply isn’t an elite hurler. He’s solid, but not elite. I would expect stabilization to start to occur at this point.
Max Fried has tossed a quality start in 2-straight outings allowing two runs over six innings in both outings. Still, the last time out he walked five, signaling that maybe everything isn’t quite right. The lefty still has a .358 wOBA this month, a three-month high, and remember that workload could be an issue in the second half, even if his performance continues to be usable in the fantasy game. Here are his innings pitched totals since 2014: 10.2 innings, zero innings, 103 innings, 118.2 innings, 111.1 innings and 88.2 this season. Clearly, he’s not in line to take the ball 13 more times without some time off as it seems illogical to think that the Braves, with all their young arms, will risky running up his innings pitched total since he’s never thrown 120-innings in a professional season.
Kyle Gibson has been a quality innings eater to date. He has 87 punchouts in 86.2 innings, and through 15 starts he’s gone 8-4 for the Twins. He also owns a mere 2.39 BB/9 rate and a 1.25 WHIP. Toss in that 1.77 GB/FB ratio and you have a very solid arm. He continues to get ahead in the count, that 66.6 percent first-pitch rate is a career best (the mark has been under 60-percent each of the previous three seasons), and his 13.8 percent swinging strike rate hints that, if anything, his current K/9 rate could tick up a bit, especially when you consider that his 34.8 percent o-swing rate is a three year high (percent of pitches swung at outside the strike zone). A good hold, or a decent trade target who likely won’t cost too much.
Dallas Keuchel has made two boring starts for the Braves. In both outing he’s gone five innings, and he’s only walked three batters. However, he’s allowed three homers, he cannot have success if that becomes a thing, and in the early going his swinging strike rate has been just 5.4 percent. Too early to make any judgements, but this is about what should have been expected to start his 2019 season.
German Marquez has allowed five runs, three earned, the last two starts, that after allowing 19 runs the previous three times out. Through 18 outings he has gone 8-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He also has 113 punchouts in 115.1 innings. He’s been completely usable in all leagues, but he’s certainly not lived up to preseason expectations. That said, his monthly ERA has gone from 2.93 to 4.12 to 6.60, as his wOBA has also blown up (.262, .297 and .366). Still can’t use him at home either (5.70 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 1.51 HR/9 with a .353 wOBA).
This NASA photo is pretty amazing.
Jake Odorizzi – there’s still time to get out before the roof caves in. Over the last three outings Jake has allowed four homers and 11 runs on his way to a 6.46 ERA. He’s also allowed 19 hits in 15.1 innings. A solid pitcher he is. A dominant force like he was to start the season – not a chance.
This Orca was hungry.
James Paxton’s June has not been very good. Not only does he have a bloated 7.15 ERA, but he also owns a horrendous 1.99 WHIP thanks in no small part to the 5.16 BB/9 rate. He’s also allowed six homers in five starts leading to a 2.38 HR/9 rate. Maybe the wounded knee is the reason, but regardless, he’s struggling and on his way to yet another disappointing effort.
Matt Strahm has four pitches, good stuff and a track record lacking health and injuries. Things started out very well for the Padres tosser, before turning ugly of late, and when I say ugly, I mean ugly. In four June starts he’s struck out 20 batters in 18.2 innings, but that’s the start and end of the happy thoughts. In those 18.2 frames Straham has allowed eight homers with exactly two in all four starts. That’s 3.86 homers per nine. He’s also allowed 21 runs in 18.2 innings leading to a 10.13 ERA. Hard to suggest that he’s worth a roster spot in most leagues at the moment.
Taco Bell, always in the news.
Jason Vargas has been really good, when confining himself to his work on the bump that is. Over his last 11 outings, he’s allowed three or fewer runs each time out leading to a 2.55 ERA. Moreover, in 9-of-11 outings it’s been two or fewer earned runs. Further, in 6-of-11 its been one or zero runs. He’s even coming off a 10-K game against the Phillies to push his K/9 over those 11 outings up to 8.10. This has been a rather remarkable resurgence for the 36 year old lefty who deserves to be started in virtually every league at this point, that is until the hits start falling which they assuredly will.
Adam Wainwright joined Bob Gibson, Bob Forsch, Jesse Haines and Bill Doak as the only hurlers in the storied franchise history of the Cardinals to make 300-starts. The 37 year old right held the Athletics to two runs over 6.2 innings in the outing while he punched out nine. Over his last three starts he’s walked three men, and over his last four outings he’s allowed a total of eight earned runs to lower his ERA to a palatable 4.35. He’s just a streaming option at this point, one that you want to use at home (.309 wOBA) and not against a lineup with a lot of lefties since they have a massive .405 wOBA against him this season.
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