Happy Friday Fantasy Guru fam! Hope everyone had an awesome week and is ready to unwind this weekend. I am currently listening to some “Zac Brown – Toes” at home and sipping on some coffee (yes — it was a tad too early for a beer), getting pumped for this article. If you have not heard this song yet, I recommend it — good vibes.
It’s that time of the week where we take a tour through the Mind of Marsal. The Chiefs are entering the season in a tough situation with the uncertainty of Tyreek Hill’s availability. This brings up a conversation that has been a popular topic of discussion this offseason, and that is whether Sammy Watkins will be able to step in as the No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs if needed and have big season or not in 2019. Hill is dealing with off the field issues involving child abuse and could possibly face a suspension. The league is expected to take action soon and there are some reports suggesting a four-game suspension, others suggesting an eight-game suspension. It is all speculation at this time, but I fully anticipate that commissioner Roger Goodell will discipline Hill at some point before the start of the season, so we should have more clarity on this matter soon.
WHAT THIS MEANS
If Hill does end up facing suspension, Watkins has a chance to be the prime receiver for Patrick Mahomes and be poised for a big season. Watkins has battled injuries throughout his career, playing all 16 games just once in his five years in the league, and that was his rookie season. That being said, it is difficult to ignore the upside he offers as the top wide out in this offense, especially when you look at the other receivers on the depth chart.
If you take away what Watkins has done in his career, the rest of the Chiefs receivers combined have totaled 45 receptions for 529 yards. Watkins himself has 232 receptions for 3,571 yards and has 189 more receptions than Demarcus Robinson who is second on the list of this bunch with 43 catches. This is significant because it shows the lack of experience in this group.
Below is a list of the receivers on the Chiefs at this time and their career receptions, as well as receiving yards.
| Player | Career Receptions | Career Receiving Yards |
| Sammy Watkins | 232 | 3571 |
|
Mecole Hardman |
0 | 0 |
|
Demarcus Robinson |
43 | 500 |
|
Marcus Kemp |
1 | 7 |
|
Gehrig Dieter |
1 | 22 |
|
Byron Pringle |
0 | 0 |
|
Davon Grayson |
0 | 0 |
|
Jamal Custis |
0 | 0 |
|
Cody Thompson |
0 | 0 |
|
Felton Davis |
0 | 0 |
|
Rashard Davis |
0 | 0 |
| Total | 277 | 4100 |
| Total Without Watkins | 45 | 529 |
As you can see, Watkins is by far the most experienced receiver and will likely end up being Mahomes’ most reliable option should Hill face suspension. Throughout his career, Watkins has a catch rate of 58 percent, has averaged 57.6 yards per game, and 15.4 yards per catch. He has displayed the ability to be a nice red zone threat and last year when he was fully healthy, he was very efficient even though he was playing alongside Hill. In fact, last season Watkins hit the century mark in receiving yards in three games (including the post season), and in all but one game where he saw at least five targets, he scored double-digit fantasy points (PPR formats).
Last season Hill accounted for 137 targets, 87 receptions, 1,479 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. He also attempted 22 rushes and gained 151 rushing yards, while scoring a touchdown. All of this production will have to be replaced and the main beneficiary of this will likely be Watkins. While the rushing attempts are not something we should be expecting a ton of out of Watkins, it is worth noting that he attempted five runs last year, after having just three prior to that since joining the league. That being said, where he will benefit the most is in the targets department.
I went back 15 years and dug into where Andy Reid’s offenses stood as far as pass attempts per game go. As expected, his offenses were typically in the top 14 or higher in that department. In fact, those numbers dipped when he first joined the Chiefs in 2013. From 2013 through 2017, the Chiefs never topped 19th in pass attempts per game. One can argue that it was because they had Alex Smith as their quarterback, who is more of a game manager than anything else. However, as soon as Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs quickly jumped to 11th in pass attempts per game last season. Without a doubt, when Reid has a quarterback that is capable to sling it, he will allow him to do just that. Therefore, considering how pass heavy this offense will likely be this year, Watkins should see plenty of looks.
The chart below represents where Reid’s offenses stood in pass attempts per game since 2004 in the league.
| Year | Pass Att Per Gm |
| 2004 | 8th |
| 2005 | 3rd |
| 2006 | 11th |
| 2007 | 6th |
| 2008 | 3rd |
| 2009 | 11th |
| 2010 | 11th |
| 2011 | 14th |
| 2012 | 7th |
| 2013 | 20th |
| 2014 | 28th |
| 2015 | 29th |
| 2016 | 25th |
| 2017 | 19th |
| 2018 | 11th |
MY THOUGHTS
Out of college Watkins’ expectations were pretty high, as he is a former No. 4 overall pick of the 2014 NFL draft. As a rookie, he played well and in his second year he actually had an even better season despite playing just 13 games. After that however, he played just half of a season in 2016, then went to the Rams where he was somewhat disappointing, but managed to score eight touchdowns in 15 games. In his first season with the Chiefs last year, he showed flashes of what he can do, but once again battled injuries and only played 10 regular season games.
At the end of the day, there is really no denying his potential and upside. As a matter of fact, I do not think we have seen his true ceiling just yet, and this could actually be the year we do see it if he is able to stay healthy. He is in an offense with an elite quarterback and a team that is coached by Andy Reid who throughout his career has ran a pass happy offense. Watkins is currently being drafted as the WR25 on average, but can easily finish as a top 15 receiver this season. There is certainly risk involved when taking him and there is still the uncertainty of Hill’s status at this time, so if you are drafting now this is added risk. However, it is risk I am willing to take at his current price because the potential outcome outweighs the downside he comes with. Considering how productive he was when healthy last season, Watkins could easily finish with well over 1,000 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns in 2019 if he indeed is Mahomes primary wide receiver option.
If you had any doubts or concerns regarding Watkins this season, hopefully I was able to give you some more clarity as to what we can expect. I have never been huge on him as a wide out, but sometimes we have to realize a role a player has and the potential opportunity he could be in for. Being the No. 1 wide out on this offense only helps the cause for a receiver as talented as Watkins. Travis Kelce could lead this team in targets this season, but Watkins should not be too far behind and has a good chance at a career season.
