Welcome back for another installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Last week’s segment on Rashaad Penny provided a ton of clarity in how I’ll be approaching Penny in redraft, bestball, and dynasty leagues this summer. Hope you took notes.
That’s the goal of this series. To try and illuminate some of the more puzzling players at current ADP and to try and shed some light whether or not we should be buying or selling at current cost.
We’ll start with taking an overall zoomed out look at the team situation — starting with the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on the role that the player will have in the offense, projected volume, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s player is one of the most recent risers in ADP, Packers wide receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His recent spike in ADP is a direct result of his promotion to the No. 2 spot starting opposite of Davante Adams. Let’s dive into that and his entire 2019 outlook right now.
2019 Green Bay Packers
Last year’s Packer squad limped to the finish line, winning just three of their final 10 games. A once prolific passing attack had become stale due to playcalling and some extremely odd in-house turmoil.
| Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Points Scored | |
| GB | 4,238 | 25 | 1,667 | 14 | 376 |
| Rank | 9th | 20th | 22nd | 15th | 14th |
The Packers were tough to watch at times last year. They were top-10 in most drops. They were bottom-12 in third down conversion rate. Their defense forced the third-fewest takeaways. They also had losing seasons back-to-back for the first time since ‘06/’05.
Green Bay made a significant number of high-profile moves this offseason. Brian Gutekunst was promoted to General Manager last season, and with a full year of evaluating his team under his belt, this was the offseason where he started to make significant moves. Head Coach Mike McCarthy was fired and replaced with up-and-coming Matt LaFleur from Tennessee. LaFleur was brought on to provide a new voice in the locker room after McCarthy’s 13 years, and team up with new OC Nathaniel Hackett to provide a spark for this offense and kickstart it back to being one of the league’s top units.
Armed with $35M in cap space, Gutekunst also reloaded the defense during free agency providing big contracts to immediate playmakers in Za’Darius Smith, Adrian Amos, and Preston Smith. He double-downed on the defense in the first round of this year’s draft, by taking both edge rusher Rashan Gary and selecting safety Darnell Savage Jr. Spending Day 2 picks on center Elgton Jenkins and tight end Jace Sternberger should help this offense in both the short and long term. Adding guard Billy Turner from Denver should also help with the depth along the offensive line.
This 2019 Packers offense is one that could see some philosophical change with LaFleur steering the ship. His offenses have been typically built around the run, ranking top-10 in rushing attempts during his two years as an offensive coordinator. Granted, those were offenses run through Todd Gurley in Los Angeles and through Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis in Tennessee. He hasn’t had a two-time MVP like Aaron Rodgers at his disposal. While we should expect the run game to be a factor here (hello value pick, Aaron Jones), don’t be surprised if LaFleur changes his stripes slightly in order to find a way to coexist with Rodgers.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 2019 Role
Coming off a 111-1,386-13 statistical season, make no mistake about it, Davante Adams is the bellwether of this passing attack. He had a 28% target share while seeing 36% of the team’s Air Yards last season. Past production is just a few of the reasons why I’m extremely bullish on his 2019 outlook.
When it comes to Valdes-Scantling’s role in this offense for 2019, it helps to see how he performed during the 2018 season.
MVS was eased into the system as a rookie. Teammate Geronimo Allison started the year with Adams. Allison’s first four games in the month of September were both productive and consistent, running 86.3% of his routes on the perimeter.
| Week | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TDs | PPR FPs | Weekly Finish |
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 17.9 | WR19 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 12.4 | WR38 |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 76 | 1 | 15.6 | WR25 |
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.0 | WR31 |
Consistently finishing as a WR2/WR3 option with double-digit fantasy points, Allison started off the year hot before a concussion and then a freak torn adductor muscle injury shut him down due to season-ending surgery. Allison’s injury paved the way for MVS to see an uptick in snaps, routes run, and targets. An injury to Randall Cobb led to MVS splitting time most of his time either in the slot (44.4%) or out wide (52.3%).
| Alignment | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TDs | INT | QBR |
| Slot | 27 | 18 | 283 | 1 | 0 | 113.66 |
| Other | 40 | 20 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 83.13 |
Per PFF, MVS had some terrific success when operating out of the slot. His perimeter routes were where he struggled the most. He had all four of his drops there and sported a much lower QB Rating when targeted.
The good news is that MVS has reportedly been working very diligently at his craft this offseason. The team has seen such an uptick in both his understanding of LaFleur’s offense and his day-to-day performance, that he’s now penciled in as the No. 2 WR to start opposite Adams. He routinely opened camp with the first team offense, lining up with Adams in base sets.
LaFleur and Hackett’s offense is designed toward scheming receivers open through timing in their routes and when/where breaks occur. This starkly contrasts with McCarthy’s former style of forcing receivers to win one-on-one battles to get open. By adding things like motion, bunched formations, misdirection, and play-action, the Packers offense should have a new feel to it in 2019. This should specifically help MVS, who’s 3.3 average yards of separation between himself and the nearest defender ranked 12th-best among all wide receivers, per NextGenStats. Possessing 4.37 speed with a 6’-4”, 206-pound frame, MVS claims that this offense is perfect for a receiver of his caliber. “I’m a vertical guy and I can stretch the field in many numerous ways. I think that this offense is predicated for guys like me.”
Even Aaron Rodgers is on aboard with the promotion for MVS stating, “MVS is playing a lot closer to his 40 time speed, which is saying a lot because he’s pretty damn fast.” That speed, combined with play calling designed to trick defenders, makes Valdes-Scantling a dangerous receiver when running vertical routes. His 15.3 yards per reception last year was top-20 in the NFL. That’s rather remarkable for a player who primarily found his success running out of the slot.
The big question now is what type of volume we can expect to see for Valdes-Scantling this season. Allison saw an 18% target share during the first four weeks last season, prior to injury. That’s the precise role we have MVS slated to take over this year. Dating back the last few seasons, the WR2 for Rodgers has garnered between 17%-20% of the available targets. What really is going to differentiate MVS’ projections is exactly how far in the run-heavy direction do you believe LaFleur will take the Packers? Last year, nobody threw on a higher percentage of plays than the Packers (67.54%). LaFleur’s old stomping grounds in Tennessee? Second lowest, at 51.49%. Nailing this appropriate division between run/pass with LaFleur’s first season with Rodgers is the most important part of projections.
For sake of argument, I’m going to go with #MedianTwitter, penciling in Green Bay for a 58%/42% pass/run split, leaving Rodgers with about 560 pass attempts. Given the number of weapons Green Bay has at the receiver, tight end, and running back positions, projecting MVS for 20% of the team targets seems lofty. Going with an 18.5% target share, that puts MVS in line for 104 targets. That roughly puts him in WR3-ish territory given his ancillary statistics.
Can Aaron Rodgers support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers? Absolutely. Prior to last year, he’s supported two top-24 fantasy wideouts in six of the eight seasons he’s played at least 15 games. If Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s a strong chance that MVS far outkicks his ADP this year.
Average Draft Position
Speaking of ADP, Valdes-Scantling is currently going as the WR46 in PPR redraft leagues in Round 10, behind Geronimo Allison (WR37, Round 8). This is due to change as more and more reports of MVS climbing up to No. 2 on the depth chart become more widely known.
In bestball leagues, we’ve seen MVS climb steadily over the last few weeks and he has now surpassed Allison over at Fanball (WR46 vs WR51). Bestball drafters are generally a sharper bunch, and I expect this ADP to continue to climb for MVS into the single-digit rounds. I’ve been recommending reaching for him in my bestball ADP updates for our Draft Guide and will continue to do so until he finds himself in the Round 8 area.
When looking at Valdes-Scantling through a dynasty lens, it appears people are either slow to react to minicamp news or don’t find it important enough to make any roster changes.
Photo courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com
The two receivers have nearly identical ADP at this juncture. That screams to me that it’s time to make a move for Valdes-Scantling. With most people still thinking about his poor rookie season and him being third on the depth chart (at best), now’s the time to pounce. Take advantage of the lull in news before training camp hype starts pushing MVS up the redraft boards.
Questions on MVS this year? Let me know what you think in our Live Chat and whether or not you have any recommendations for a future #FridayFantasyFocus.
