Brendan McKay will be called up to start for the Rays on Saturday against the Rangers. One of the better pitching prospects in baseball, the lefty that is McKay is a two-way player in the mold of Shohei Ohtani. The bat doesn’t appear to be ready at this point, but the arm is. What skills does McKay possess, and what does his 2019 outlook in the big leagues look like – should you go hog wild adding him off the waiver-wire?
23 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 215 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher, First Baseman
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
|
2017 |
A- |
20.0 |
1-0 |
1.80 |
0.75 |
9.5 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
|
2018 |
RK, A, A+ |
78.1 |
5-2 |
2.41 |
0.88 |
11.8 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
|
2019 |
AA, AAA |
66.2 |
6-0 |
1.22 |
0.80 |
11.9 |
2.0 |
0.4 |
|
Career |
|
165.0 |
12-2 |
1.85 |
0.83 |
11.6 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
In five games at Triple-A this season, McKay has gone 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 26 punchouts over 25 innings.
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2017 |
A- |
36 |
.232 |
4 |
22 |
16 |
2 |
.725 |
|
2018 |
RK, A, A+ |
75 |
.214 |
6 |
39 |
32 |
0 |
.727 |
|
2019 |
AA, AAA |
38 |
.205 |
4 |
18 |
16 |
1 |
.644 |
|
Career |
|
149 |
.216 |
14 |
79 |
64 |
3 |
.703 |
Drafted in the 34th round in the 2014 Entry Draft.
Went to University of Louisville and was the 2017 College Player Of the Year.
Drafted in the 1st round, 4th overall, in the 2017 Entry Draft.
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2018 |
39th |
23rd |
25th |
|
2019 |
47th |
42nd |
29th |
THE SKILLS
From the preseason Rookie Report on McKay.
The next Shohei Ohtani. McKay is an impressive pitching prospect who is also a heck of a hitter. As a pitcher, he relies on a fastball that can hit 95 mph, and he’s working on a changeup that will become his fourth offering. Last season he threw 78.1 innings, none above High-A ball, as he struck out 11.8 batters per nine with an excellent 1.6 BB/9 rate. As a batter, he hit only .214 though he owned a pretty strong .368 OBP given that average. He also posted a 0.85 BB/K ratio as he controlled the strike zone very well. As a hitter he profiles as an Eric Hosmer type. How will the Rays use him? Will the use him as an Opener some days, a hitter in others? Time will tell.
McKay has a feel for pitching, and an ability to control all of the pitches at his disposal. His fastball is plus, and the velocity is slowly climbing a bit. He also has the ability to get a bit of glove side run on the pitch, meaning the pitch moves a bit away from a right-handed batter (he can also spot it on the inside to lefties). His slider can miss bats and he can bury it when he’s on. The changeup has progressed this season, but it’s that control that really sets him apart. Some have his skills or the control. Few have both. Toss in a soup san of sequencing, something that McKay has in spades, and it’s no shock at all that he’s been setting down minor leaguers.
McKay has made six minor league stops the last three years, and at every stop he’s struck out more than a batter per inning.
In six minor league stops, McKay has never had a BB/9 rate worse than 2.25, and that was back in 2017.
At his last five stops, McKay has posted a HR/9 rate below 0.45. He simply hasn’t given up anything deep permitting just nine homers in 165 innings.
McKay has seen a great deal of batted balls off him hit to the opposite field (part of the reason for the lack of homers). It also speaks to the fact that McKay can work all four quadrants of the strike zone, and that he keeps the ball out of the heart of it. The last two years McKay’s pull and opposite field rates are nearly identical.
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PLAYING TIME
The first thing to note with McKay is that the youngster has no innings on his arm, like none, so it’s very tough to envision a large offering in the innings pitched column from him this season. With just a couple more starts, McKay will surpass his innings pitched total from last season, and remember, we just hit the midway point of the 2019 season.
2017: 20 innings
2018: 78.1 innings
2019: 66.2 innings
He’s been on a six-day schedule to help curtail the innings, so it’s unclear if the Rays would want to keep that going in the bigs, but it would obviously complicate things for the rest of the arms on the staff if that was indeed the plan.
The question now – how much work will he get with the Rays in the short-term?
The answer is — we do not know.
Ryan Yarbrough won’t be available to pitch after being used in the 18-inning affair Thursday, and he was the arm the team was counting on for Saturday. With McKay set to throw Friday, the Rays will give him an extra day and use him Saturday. With the setback recently with Tyler Glasnow, and a best-case scenario for his return likely August, there is an opening in the starting rotation. However, there has been an opening in the rotation since Glasnow went down in late May, meaning McKay languished in the minors for a month plus before getting the call, so absolve yourself of this idea that he’s taking the rotation spot of Glasnow.
There’s also the way that the Rays use arms. It’s possible that McKay sticks around and starts. It’s possible he becomes a bulk relief arm like Jalen Beeks. This would likely be an ideal scenario for McKay. It would allow the Rays to keep his workload in check, both in terms of overall pitches and stress on his arm in each individual outing.
The truth is that no one knows what the Rays plan is with McKay at the moment, or how many innings they will let him throw this season. No one knows.
McKay will be added to the 40 and 25 man rosters. Things will get interesting when Jose Alvarado is ready to return from the restricted list, as he too will head back to the 40-man roster.
McKay’s only played first base 18 of the 38 games he’s appeared in as a hitter this season as the team has looked to limit the pressure put on his body a bit (he’s missed some time the past couple of seasons with oblique issues). McKay has hit .265 with four homers and 10 RBI in 15 games at Triple-A, but it’s completely unclear if the team has any plans to use him at the dish at this time.
CONCLUSION
I know that sometimes I warn about playing time with rookies, but if you have never heard me, it’s time to listen now.
That talent is elite, and he has the stuff to get big-league hitters out right now.
The rest though, is totally up in the air.
McKay could be up with the Rays for one start.
McKay could be used as a starter with the Rays until the innings limit hits.
McKay could be used as a bulk reliever with the Rays.
No one, outside the organization, knows the plan.
There’s also the fact the Rays desperately need McKay long-term. He’s under contract control, they have to be worried about the health of Glasnow, and they always have a plan that they follow, and let’s face it, the plan usually works for the Rays. Just realize that back in March, no one was expecting to see McKay in the bigs this season as a permanent addition. Maybe he would make a couple of appearances, but no one expected him to be see significant work in the majors (it’s why I was able to draft him in the reserve rounds in AL LABR).
With all the questions surrounding him – role and workload chief among them – McKay is someone to roster for talent, but it’s more of a pie in the sky hope, than a likely run to AL ROY consideration as it’s very difficult to come up with a way for him to be a significant fantasy contributor in 2019. The best road might be in a Beeks type role, though that’s certainly not sexy levels of fantasy production.
He’s a must add in AL-only leagues if he somehow is available.
He’s a must add in dynasty leagues if he somehow is available.
If you’re in a 10/12 team setup, be very cautious with your waiver-wire spending. Only make the move if you have a rolling roster spot.
In 15-team mixed leagues you can feel a bit better about spending, but all the question marks still remain.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
