When people talk about third down running backs, what typically comes to mind?
The PPR catch-specialists, right?
While these players certainly see an uptick in volume on third downs, once opposing defenses see them run out onto the field, the offense is generally tipping off that it’ll be a pass play. Unsurprisingly, these backs don’t have incredibly high success rates converting for first downs on third down passes.
Versatility is important in today’s NFL. While these pass catching backs have a role, there’s also a decent number of do-it-all backs that can convert these same plays without tipping off the play to the defense. Workhorse running backs need to remain our primary target in fantasy football. When it comes to tiebreakers when you’re on the clock, swing for upside and lean towards the player that has a skillset for them to compete on all three downs.
There’s a place for PPR catch-specialists, but they should be used to supplement your draft, not be a key part of it.
Let’s take a look and dive into the numbers a bit from last season at some of the most successful backs rushing and receiving on third downs.
Third Down Rushing Backs
Filtering plays from ProFootballReference, we can take a look at all rushing plays that occurred in 2018.
Here’s how the top-10 backs, sorted by rushing attempts on third down, fared from a production and 1st Down% point of view:
| Player | Pos | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D | 1D% |
| Todd Gurley | RB | 28 | 160 | 5.71 | 2 | 14 | 50.0% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 27 | 99 | 3.67 | 2 | 19 | 70.4% |
| Chris Carson | RB | 26 | 119 | 4.58 | 2 | 16 | 61.5% |
| Jordan Howard | RB | 21 | 66 | 3.14 | 0 | 10 | 47.6% |
| David Johnson | RB | 20 | 56 | 2.80 | 0 | 8 | 40.0% |
| Joe Mixon | RB | 19 | 76 | 4.00 | 1 | 12 | 63.2% |
| Sony Michel | RB | 19 | 24 | 1.26 | 2 | 12 | 63.2% |
| James Conner | RB | 18 | 72 | 4.00 | 2 | 12 | 66.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 18 | 30 | 1.67 | 1 | 8 | 44.4% |
| Marlon Mack | RB | 17 | 64 | 3.76 | 3 | 11 | 64.7% |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 17 | 54 | 3.18 | 2 | 8 | 47.1% |
No surprise at the list of names here. This list comprises of the typical heavy volume backs and most performed admirably in this category.
| Player | Pos | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D | 1D% |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | 10 | 20 | 2.00 | 3 | 8 | 80.0% |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 14 | 50 | 3.57 | 5 | 11 | 78.6% |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 13 | 42 | 3.23 | 1 | 10 | 76.9% |
| Gus Edwards | RB | 15 | 81 | 5.40 | 0 | 11 | 73.3% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 27 | 99 | 3.67 | 2 | 19 | 70.4% |
| James Conner | RB | 18 | 72 | 4.00 | 2 | 12 | 66.7% |
| Marlon Mack | RB | 17 | 64 | 3.76 | 3 | 11 | 64.7% |
| Joe Mixon | RB | 19 | 76 | 4.00 | 1 | 12 | 63.2% |
| Sony Michel | RB | 19 | 24 | 1.26 | 2 | 12 | 63.2% |
| Chris Carson | RB | 26 | 119 | 4.58 | 2 | 16 | 61.5% |
When we sort by first down success rate (min. 10 rushing attempts), the names get shuffled around quite a bit towards the top.
Leonard Fournette had the most success rushing for first downs (80.0%), followed by Alvin Kamara (78.6%), and Adrian Peterson (76.9%). How Washington divides the carries among it’s backfield with the emergence of Derrius Guice will be one of the hottest training camp stories to watch. Outside of Kamara and Marlon Mack, most of these successful rushers were north of 220-plus pounds. Not only does the added weight help a running backs’ shelf life, it looks like it generally led to more successful third down rushing conversions.
At the other end of the spectrum, two notable names were dreadful at converting third down carries into first downs. Kenyan Drake went 3-for-14 (21.4%) and Kerryon Johnson went 3-for-11 (27.3%). Both weighing around the 210-mark, perhaps their teams opt for bigger backs to handle these responsibilities in 2019.
Third Down Receiving Backs
When we take a look at running backs that were prolific in receiving opportunities on third down (min. 10 targets), the table presents a different set of names.
| Player | Pos | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D | 1D% |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 32 | 25 | 78.1% | 183 | 0 | 9 | 36.0% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 31 | 26 | 83.9% | 145 | 1 | 7 | 26.9% |
| James White | RB | 30 | 19 | 63.3% | 156 | 3 | 13 | 68.4% |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 27 | 21 | 77.8% | 170 | 2 | 11 | 52.4% |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | 25 | 18 | 72.0% | 186 | 1 | 10 | 55.6% |
| Duke Johnson | RB | 25 | 19 | 76.0% | 141 | 2 | 9 | 47.4% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 24 | 19 | 79.2% | 180 | 2 | 12 | 63.2% |
| Tarik Cohen | RB | 21 | 16 | 76.2% | 97 | 1 | 7 | 43.8% |
| T.J. Yeldon | RB | 21 | 17 | 81.0% | 161 | 1 | 7 | 41.2% |
| Theo Riddick | RB | 20 | 15 | 75.0% | 102 | 0 | 5 | 33.3% |
Some of the workhorse backs remain on this list, but we also start to see some of the traditional PPR backs emerge. James White had the most touchdowns and receiving first downs among this group. Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen, T.J. Yeldon, and Theo Riddick all joined the 20-target club on third downs. Despite these backs being your more traditional third down running backs, it reaffirmed that they’re more one-dimensional as just pass catching options. Only White surpassed the 15-carry mark on third down opportunities.
| Player | Pos | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D | 1D% |
| James White | RB | 30 | 19 | 63.3% | 156 | 3 | 13 | 68.4% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 24 | 19 | 79.2% | 180 | 2 | 12 | 63.2% |
| David Johnson | RB | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | 70 | 1 | 5 | 62.5% |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | 10 | 8 | 80.0% | 97 | 0 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | 25 | 18 | 72.0% | 186 | 1 | 10 | 55.6% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 12 | 9 | 75.0% | 66 | 0 | 5 | 55.6% |
| Spencer Ware | RB | 10 | 9 | 90.0% | 114 | 0 | 5 | 55.6% |
| Javorius Allen | RB | 16 | 13 | 81.3% | 90 | 2 | 7 | 53.8% |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 27 | 21 | 77.8% | 170 | 2 | 11 | 52.4% |
| Duke Johnson | RB | 25 | 19 | 76.0% | 141 | 2 | 9 | 47.4% |
When sorted by first down success rate, White takes the crown (68.4%), but we also see every-down backs in Christian McCaffrey, (63.2%) David Johnson (62.5%), and LeSean McCoy (62.5%) prevail. It’ll be interesting to see how much receiving work Kyle Juszczyk sees in San Francisco with the return of Jerick McKinnon. Javorius Allen could also see a big decrease in workload now that he’s backing up Alvin Kamara in New Orleans.
Third Down Backs in Fantasy
James White’s success as a third down receiving specialist was evident in 2018. Not only was he a prolific receiver on third downs, he also fared somewhat well converting rushing opportunities (7-of-16). Does that mean he should be a target of ours to pursue in 2019? Let’s run through a couple of the hot PPR backs that have significant draft capital heading into this season according to FantasyFootballCalculator’s ADP.
James White (ADP RB27)
White had an extremely productive 2018 season, finishing as the fantasy RB7. Helped by inconsistent rushing and injuries to Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, White found himself routinely hovering around the 50% snap mark. Subsequently, he had double-digit fantasy points in 12-of-16 games, and 20-plus PPR points in 5-of-16. The addition of Damien Harris to this backfield could lead to fewer snaps and fewer opportunities for White heading into 2019. Drafters are now smarter than ever and have realized this, dropping White to RB27 despite his RB7 finish last season. Three years ago, that wouldn’t have been the case. That being said, I still believe he’s going too high (fifth round ADP) for a typical redraft league.
Tarik Cohen (ADP RB28)
Drafted right after him is another PPR back doomed to third down duties, Tarik Cohen. Cohen had fewer usable weeks than White — 8-of-16 went for 10+ PPR points — and now finds himself in a very similar situation as 2018. Instead of spelling Jordan Howard, Cohen will be mixed in with third round pick, David Montgomery. Montgomery is a do-it-all back that is a veritable threat to Cohen’s workload. Free agent addition Mike Davis — who was Seattle’s primary receiving back last season — also figures to play a role. I’m completely out on Cohen at this fifth-round price tag in redraft leagues.
Austin Ekeler (ADP RB42)
The Chargers’ primary backup behind Melvin Gordon saw some increased playing time last season when Gordon was out of the lineup. In the three games that Austin Ekeler played without Gordon, he finished as the fantasy RB21, RB30, and RB11. He averaged just 8.5 touches per game in all other outings. Unlike White and Cohen, the Chargers showed they weren’t afraid to use Ekeler in an elevated role when injuries hit. His role in this offense should be viewed as more than just a receiving specialist, but a legitimate backup if things were to go awry with Gordon again. Gordon has missed seven games over the past three season, so there’s a possibility Ekeler sees enough volume to warrant this pick. His ADP in the ninth round is much easier to stomach.
Jerick McKinnon (ADP RB44)
Drafted right around the same time as Ekeler, injuries prevented us from ever seeing what Jerick McKinnon could do in a 49ers uniform in 2018. McKinnon missed all of OTA’s and minicamp, but is reportedly on track to participate in training camp in about a month. Like Ekeler, McKinnon is one Tevin Coleman injury away from RB1 duties in a Kyle Shanahan-led offense. Ninth round ADP makes sense here.
Nyheim Hines (ADP RB52)
Do you know how many running backs had 60 or more receptions in their rookie season? The list is actually rather impressive:
Photo courtesy of ProFootballReference
Only eight RBs met that threshold dating back to 1999, including Indianapolis’ Nyheim Hines. Hines played a significant role in the Colts offense, routinely being targeted out of the backfield as an outlet receiver when Andrew Luck was under duress. He unfortunately only had just one week where he was RB18 or better. Highly inefficient with both his carries (3.7 YPC) and yards per target (5.2), Hines is going to need to rely on similar target volume to sustain any type of fantasy relevance. Nearly 40% of his fantasy value in PPR leagues came from just receptions alone. With the offseason moves Indianapolis made in acquiring Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, that could be a tough task for Hines in 2019. I’m personally fading.
I mentioned this in the intro, but after going through the entire process, it bears repeating. Running backs relegated to third down duties are inconsistent fantasy options. That’s not a new discovery I’m pronouncing here, more of a reminder. When you enter your upcoming drafts this fall, it’s okay to take some late darts on pass-catching specialists. Just know that they probably best serve as bye week fill-ins that have very few predictable, start-worthy weeks.
