It seems every offseason there becomes more and more player movement in the NFL. Between free agency, trades, the draft and players getting released, there’s an immense amount of fluctuation surrounding target-shares and how teams will distribute targets. The goal of this article is to evaluate what teams looked like in 2018 and what changes to expect in the upcoming season. Since there’s a wide variety of positions that can affect how touches are distributed, all aspects of rushing and/or receiving could be evaluated in a given piece. The NFL is a complicated beast but breaking it down piece-by-piece in this fashion can help lighten the load of evaluation.
Here’s how this piece will go. First, we’ll take a look at how things shook out in 2018. Focusing on targets, receptions and yards, and discuss any important factors involved that will be different in 2019. Then, we’ll take a look at the up-to-date depth chart for the 2019 season and make educated projections. Let’s dive in.
2018 Oakland Raiders
(Photo courtesy of profootballreference.com)
YIKES! The Oakland Raiders were pretty clearly tanking from the moment Jon Gruden took over in the summer. Between trading Amari Cooper, along with the random, win-now moves, there was a lot of confusion to evaluate. Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant and Brandon LaFell were the equivalent of putting a band aid on a hole in a damn (I’m mixing about 15 references, but that’s the best I’ve got today). Jalen Richard ended up being a big factor, especially by the end of the season, but there was a plethora of games where he was ineffective until the game was in “garbage” time. Points were far from plentiful, and seemingly only Jared Cook, who enjoyed a career season, could consistently beat defenders and make plays on his own. This is no knock on Cook, but when he’s the only player on your offense able to create positive plays, something is seriously wrong. Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch both got a few opportunities in the passing game, but ultimately the offense was so condensed, there was never room to navigate when receiving dump-off and screen opportunities.
Derek Carr wasn’t actually as terrible as some would like to say, and the offense line held up in a reasonable fashion, but by seasons end there simply wasn’t anyone who had the ability to get open. Carr ended the season completing 68.9% of his passing attempts, with a 7.3 yards per attempt. It wasn’t pretty, but these were good numbers considering the abomination of supporting cast. Cooper had a beyond strange start to the season, accumulating two games with 10 and 11 targets, and the other four games involved him receiving five or less (one, one, three and five) before being traded. The was a clear shift in game-planning in the 2018 Raiders offense, and it was made abundantly clear that Cooper was no longer a featured weapon.
2019 Oakland Raiders
(Photo Courtesy of rotoworld.com)
This may not be a finished product, but there’s certainly a path to success that makes sense. Between acquiring Antonio Brown and drafting Josh Jacobs in round one of the 2019 NFL draft, the Raiders have set up a solid base for secondary pieces to work off. Jalen Richard as a passing down back could be an effective piece in a more part-time role, and players like Tyrell Williams and J.J. Nelson could find a lot of avenues to open lanes with Brown taking a lot of attention. Darren Waller may not be Cook and may not have the experience and savvy to produce like Cook did in 2018, but he has the elite athleticism needed to be accounted for. This is arguably the best set of weapons Carr has had in his career, even including the 2015 season where he had 3,987 passing yards and 32 passing touchdowns. There’s no doubt, this will be a work in progress with so many new pieces, and there could be quite a few games where things don’t run as planned. But overall, this should be a much more effective offense. The Raiders gave Williams a lot of money, and all indications would lean towards him being a big part of the offense. What that means for fantasy purposes is difficult but projecting 80-to-100 targets seems reasonable, and with his ability to create big plays in the open field, he could definitely thrive. Brown should shoulder an enormous target-share and is really the only player on the offense that can’t be lost to injury (You get what I mean). While assuming his apex target seasons in Pittsburgh is what’s coming is unrealistic, 140-to-160 targets should be a reasonable range to project. How involved Jacobs will be in the passing game is a big unknown at this stage, but between him and Richard, it’s fair to project 70-100 targets going RBs again.
In truth, I think it’s fair to be cautiously optimistic about the Raiders offense as a whole. While they won’t ever be confused with an elite offense, they have enough talent to give opposing defenses issues. Especially considering their division, with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers, there will be a lot of games where they have to push the pace and create more points than maybe they’re comfortable with. It’s a transition season, but there will be plenty of yards to go around. The big wildcard in the offense is Waller. If he can be effective that could create a nice dynamic that will force opposing defenses to account for the TE. If he’s not, there could be a lot of bracketed coverage in the future for Brown.
