What’s good Fantasy Guru fam! It is Thursday and although we are still far away from having Thursday night football, we have plenty of football to chat about.
There are no exceptions. Every year we have players that are underrated heading into the fantasy football season. When we talk about undervalued players, these can be considered players who are too cheap based on their potential and my expectations for them. After taking an early look at ADP rankings, as well as player rankings across the industry, there were multiple players that stood out to me as strong values based on where they are being drafted and ranked. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of them.
QUARTERBACKS
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers – Winston is headed into the final year of his contract and has plenty to prove. Fortunately for him, the Bucs hired head coach Bruce Arians, who should be a huge help to Winston. They also got rid of Ryan Fitzpatrick, so Winston does not have to worry about being benched for him. When you look at Winston’s current ADP it is QB16, which is right around where the consensus industry rankings have him ranked. I am far more bullish on him than most and certainly think it is possible that he finishes as a QB1 in fantasy with top 10 upside. In his first two seasons in the league, he finished QB13 and QB10, then struggled the last two seasons with health and getting benched. This offense has plenty of weapons to choose from with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard, so there is nothing to worry about in that department. Winston does come with risk, as he tends to make silly mistakes at times, but there is no denying the upside he brings. Under Bruce Arians, Winston has a good shot to bounce back. I am heavily investing in him at this current price and will likely end up with an unhealthy amount of shares if his ADP goes up.
RUNNING BACKS
Marlon Mack, Colts – It is not a secret that I am extremely high on Mack this season. He turned in a great season last year and should pick up where he left off this season. Last year he rushed for 908 yards on 195 carries, averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, and scored nine rushing touchdowns. He added 17 receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown on 26 targets, with a catch rate of 71 percent. Not to mention his role in the red zone with 48.6 percent of the carries inside the 20-yard line and 66.7 percent of the carries inside the 5-yard line. This is an offense that had the fourth highest scoring attempts per game in 2018, so touchdown opportunities shouldn’t be an issue for Mack this year. Lastly, he is running behind a very good offensive line, which is huge for a running back. Aside from the addition of Spencer Ware, who could limit Mack’s true ceiling with a small role, there is so much to like about Mack this season. His averaged ADP at this time is RB17, but I am expecting him to turn in a top 12 season at the least and would not be at all surprised to see him inside the top 10 at his position at the end of 2019.
Lamar Miller, Texans – Miller is not someone I am overly excited about this season, but RB30 seems like it is too low for an every down back like him. Look I get it, he has not lived up to expectations in Houston. That said, he has turned in a top 25 fantasy season each of the last three years with the Texans and was a top 10 back in 2014 and 2015 when he played in Miami. Since 2014, Miller has also totaled over 1,000 yards and has scored at least six total touchdowns. His ability to pass block efficiently should keep him on the field often, considering how bad the Texans offensive line is. While Miller does not offer much upside at this point, he should return value considering his current ADP. There is a very strong possibility that you get an RB2 in Miller at an RB3 price.
David Montgomery, Bears – I normally am hesitant when it comes to rookies, but Montgomery has a very strong change to be the rookie of the year in Chicago. The Bears were not happy with Jordan Howard last season, but he still managed to be a top 20 fantasy back in this offense. Montgomery, who is more explosive and arguably better than Howard, is expected to come in and take over that role. Montgomery displayed the ability to be a workhorse during his last two seasons in Iowa State, receiving 250+ carries in 2017 and 2018. He was very efficient with his opportunities, averaging over 4.4 yards per carry in those two seasons combined and rushing for 24 touchdowns. The Bears fed Howard the ball 250 times last season, so expect a heavy dose of carries for Montgomery this season. He is currently taken as RB28 on average, but has potential to finish well inside the top 20 at his position.
WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Green, Bengals – Depending on where you look at your rankings, you might find Green outside the top 10 as far as receivers are concerned. On average, he is being drafted as WR13 in the later part of the third round. This is great value for a receiver who has finished as a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy points every season that he has played 16 games. He has posted 1,000+ receiving yards seasons in six of his eight seasons, has an impressive career average of 80.2 receiving yards per game, and has six or more touchdown passes in all but one season. The potential to be a top 10 receiver is very high for Green and now that he is healthy, we should be expecting that type of season out of him. I would not be surprised to see him move up in rankings as we get closer to the season and start being taken off the board in the second round, so if you are drafting now, enjoy the value.
Geronimo Allison, Packers – Allison appeared in just five games last season as he dealt with multiple injuries, but when he was on the field he displayed some nice upside. In four of the five games, he topped 60 receiving yards and in three of those games he caught at least five passes. Not to mention, he found the pay dirt twice. Even with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to compete with, now that Randall Cobb is no longer with the team, Allison has a real strong chance to be the No. 2 receiver for the Packers. His current ADP of WR46 is something I would take advantage of, as he could post up WR3 numbers if he can stay healthy. He will be catching passes from one of the better quarterbacks in the game and is in a good position to exceed value at his current price. I’m a sucker for a bargain, so I am buying.
Donte Moncrief, Steelers – They say if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again, so here we are. I was pretty excited about Moncrief’s opportunity last season to be the top receiver for the Jaguars, but needless to say, he disappointed. Now that he is no longer catching passes from Blake Bortles, there is hope for some production out of him. This year he has a good chance to compete for the No. 2 wide receiver spot for the Steelers. Not only does he get a major upgrade at quarterback this season, he lands in an offense that likes to sling it. Pittsburgh has been top two in pass attempts per game in each of the last two seasons and since 2014 they have never fallen below 15th in that department, so this is clearly a pass first offense. Moncrief played in just nine games in 2016, but scored in seven of those, showing what he can do with a good quarterback (Andrew Luck) tossing him the ball. He also scored six times in 2015 on 64 receptions. Keep in mind, in 2015 Luck played just seven games, and Moncrief scored a touchdown in five of those games. He can definitely get the job done when he is catching the ball thrown by a good quarterback and that is the case this season. I am not expecting a breakout season by any means out of Moncrief, but he is currently being drafted as WR57 and that just seems like too low for me. He could easily post up WR4 numbers with upside for WR3 numbers, making him a nice value at his current ADP.
TIGHT ENDS
Chris Herndon, Jets – As a rookie, Herndon caught 39 passes on 56 targets for 502 yards and four touchdowns. He should be able to build off of his first year in the NFL and turn in a solid sophomore season. He got better as the season progressed, averaging 4.5 targets, 3.1 receptions, and 41.4 yards per game , as well as 14.4 yards per catch from Week 6 on. During that stretch is also where he scored all of his touchdowns. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold also played well toward the end of the season and these two clearly showed chemistry. The Jets are thin at tight end, so Darnold should get plenty of snaps this upcoming season. He is currently being taken off the board as TE18, but could easily out produce that price tag. If you are looking for a player with upside at a position that is tough to get consistent production out of, Herndon should be at the top of your list as far as tight ends are concerned.
