Homer Bailey is performing, but can you trust him? Luis Castillo is a sell now candidate? Merrill Kelly has been effective, in particular of late. Kikuchi has become a pitching machine. Mikolas has been effective, nothing more. Miley is showing some signs of crumbling. Paddack has the yellow flags a waving. Pineda just can’t seem to get into the “W” column. Quintana’s struggles revolve around my adding him in mixed leagues. Sampson has been effective at times for the Rangers, but homers are an issue. Skaggs has been on his game, finally, of late. Stanek has good numbers, but very little fantasy value. Stroman has been effective, if boring. Finally, Verlander has been producing at elite levels, though there is some extremely wonky stuff going on.
Homer Bailey has a “W” in his last three starts. Seriously, he does. In that time he’s allowed… say it with me… one run. The four starts before that mini-run, Bailey was 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA. Overall, I see that 2.25 K/BB ratio and 1.38 WHIP and think that’s the man we got here – a league average arm who is in a nice groove right now, nothing more.
Luis Castillo leads all starting pitchers in swing and miss rate. He also has the lowest number of pitches inside in the strike zone. Something has to give with numbers like that. I see that 2.56 ERA and just cannot figure out how the number stays that low without an overhaul of some kind. Luis has walked 4.83 batters per nine, a ghastly number, which in an of itself suggests that his ERA should at least a full run higher, if not substantially more. That 50 percent first pitch strike rate is awful, and you just read how horrendous his 34 percent of pitches in the strike zone is. Honestly, if someone will pay you as if he’s a top-10 starting pitcher on the trade market, you would be very wise to give that offer some serious consideration.
Merrill Kelly rebounded from his poor showing against the Rockies to hold the Giants to two earned runs over six innings. That’s 4-of-5 outings for Kelly allowing two or fewer earned runs, and he’s also punched out 19 batters his last 19.2 innings. He’s settled in as a pretty stable innings eater, albeit one without a whole lotta excitement. There’s noting in the profile that excites, but conversely there is nothing scary here either.
Why would anyone make a pizza flag?
Yusei Kikuchi allowed a .314 wOBA in April, a .336 mark in May and the number has shot into the stratosphere in June at .456. He’s been plagued by the home runs ball having allowed at least one in 6-straight outings. That poor work has led to a total of 13 homers over eight outings, or a 3.08 HR/9 rate thanks to a massive 26.5 percent HR/FB ratio. He’s not missing bats (5.92 per nine the last eight) and walking everyone (4.50 walks per nine). Untrustworthy to say the least.
Miles Mikolas is 1-4 over his last six outings. That’s pretty odd given that he owns a 7.41 K/9, 1.85 BB/9, 1.098 HR/9 and a 3.44 ERA. Only once in those six outings has he allowed more than three runs, but at least he’s back to being a usable mixed league option.
Wade Miley has allowed eight walks his last two outings, and he cannot do that and be successful. In those two outings, guess what, he’s allowed seven runs over 9.1 innings. I’ve always felt like he would turn into a pumpkin at some point, but at least you hopefully understand that his current ratios (3.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP) are bound to rise the rest of the way, or at least have a better than even shot at doing so.
Chris Paddack allowed 13 runs over three starts leading to a fake demotion to the minors to conserve his workload. In his return to the bigs, Paddack allowed two runs in five innings but also allowed three walks and another homer. That’s 4-straight games with at least one homer allowed and a total of seven overall. That three-walk game last time out was also his first game this season with more than one. The yellow flags, suggesting caution, are waving pretty vigorously at the moment.
I remember Saved By The Bell too, but come on now.
Michael Pineda was just starting to earn some folks trust after 4-straight games with no homers allowed, but last time out it was five runs allowed against the Royals to push his ERA back over five at 5.02. He’s Mr. Quality start in a best-case scenario, more frequently seeming to be Mr. Three Runs Allowed in Five Innings. He hasn’t won in five starts, even though all of the outings have lasted five innings.
Jose Quintana is a disaster, perhaps because I dealt for him in a keeper league? Just some food for thought. His poor showings culminated in a horrendous nine run (eight earned) effort over 4.1 innings against the Mets. Over his first nine outings he had a 3.30 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 3.00 K/BB ratio. Since then he’s made six starts with a 1.73 WHIP, 1.82 K/BB and 6.75 WHIP. His 37 percent hard-hit rate and 12.5 HR/FB ratio of late aren’t far off norm, but the fly balls are up, the swinging K-rate is down (8.0 percent), and the .352 BABIP is stupid. Still, his 62 percent first pitch strike rate is fine. He’s simply missing inside the zone and not putting anyway away. I’d still buy on the low, it won’t cost you anything, but there’s no real need to be starting him at the moment in any format.
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Adrian Sampson has allowed seven homers his last five outings. He’s also made five starts in June with three excellent efforts of one earned run allowed per outing. However, the other two times out the performance has been dreadful with 11 runs – nine earned – allowed in just eight innings. That still leaves his five-game run at a 3.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP which are certainly usable results indeed. Over his 53.2 innings as a starter the relative unknown has a 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, though at least he’s not beating himself with a mere 1.86 BB/9 rate. Still, that total of 13 homers, leading to a 2.19 HR/9 rate is scary bad. He has a mere 0.87 GB/FB ratio this season, and his exit velocity, hard-hit ball rate and fastball spin rates all sit in the danger zone according to Statcast. I’m wary of any kind of recommendation.
Speaking of Saved By the Bell…
Tyler Skaggs has allowed a total of four runs his last three starts, only one coming his last two. Skaggs has walked a total of two men versus 14 strikeouts over those 17.1 innings (his changeup usage in the three games is up after the mark took a dip in May). He’s been money with no one on base, batters have a .272 wOBA in those situations, but the mark is .344 with men on base and .340 with men in scoring position. Skaggs has also seen his walk rate go up from 2.76 per nine with bases empty to .303 with men on base and 3.29 with men in scoring position. The K/9 rate has plummeted as well from 9.07 to 8.19 to 6.59 in the three situations. He needs to get ahead and keep men off base, or his whole attack plan changes.
Ryan Stanek just isn’t usable in most formats. His numbers are impressive (2.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.69 K/9), but since he’s being used at the Opener so much, he doesn’t pickup any chances at wins or holds or saves. He has no wins, no saves and just two holds as he’s made 22 “starts.”
Marcus Stroman has tossed 3-straight quality starts, four earned runs allowed in the three games, and he’s allowed more than three earned runs once in nine outings. He’s only gone 4-3 in that time thanks to a lack of offensive support (2.96 ERA). Even with the innings, and success at holding the opponent down, and hell the 2.22 BB/9 rate, he only has 5.92 strikeouts per nine in that time making it hard to view him as much more than the last guy on your mixed league staff type. Maybe he gets dealt to a team with a strong infield defense in a pitchers’ park.
This is why I want to work for a zoo.
Justin Verlander is on pace for 20 victories and 275 plus strikeouts with a 0.75 WHIP. Those are stupendous numbers, like, HOF level stuff. Still, something has to give here. Verlander has allowed a .175 BABIP, which is impossible to sustain. His career mark sits at .281 and his lowest mark the last seven years is .255. Secondly, he’s allowing an absurd number of homers. Verlander has allowed a career worst number of 1.19 in the HR/9 column, though the last three years the rate has been 1.19, 1.18 and 1.18. He’s been the same guy for three seasons. This year the number has leapt from league average to outright poor at 1.65 per nine. He’s allowing so many fly balls, 47 percent, that he is at the mercy of the HR/FB column where his number sits at 16.9. I would expect the homers to slow but the base hits to exponentially increase the rest of the way.
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