“NEVER AGAIN” isn’t a phrase I tend to use in fantasy football. In fact, I put emphasis on avoiding that type of Black/White thinking. Howevah (I’m from Massachusetts), there are certain instances in life where moving on from bad situations can be healthy. Today, we’re going to be talking about some painful fantasy situations from 2018 that became untenable moving forward. It could be injuries, it could be frustrating coaching or simply players that haven’t gotten it done (from a fantasy perspective in their careers). Either way..I’M DONE. THAT’S IT. I’M PUTTING MY FOOT DOWN. Never again!
Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert
Last year around this time, I was filling up on Reed and Eifert shares in best ball drafts. The general mantra was, “well, one of them has to stay healthy, right?” NO. NO RUSS, NEITHER HAS TO STAY HEALTHY. Truth be told, I hadn’t drafted much of either, in any format, over the previous few seasons. Their cost has been too rich for my blood, but in 2018, it was time. I was going to be the smartest guy in the room, jumping in last minute while everyone else had given up. A few things happened, but being the smartest person in the room (on this particular topic) was not one of them. Reed ended up “playing” 13 games (8, really), went through four different QBs, and overall didn’t hit value on his “cheap” ADP. Eifert once again hit terrible injury luck, breaking his ankle on a fluky play in Week 4. Eifert has now played 43 total games in his six-year career, and only 14 in the last three seasons. Reed has done a little better, playing 65 games in his six years, but has never played more than 14 games and has become a regular on IR. The talent is undeniable, but expecting fantasy relevant seasons from these two TEs, at this stage, is highly unrealistic. If they’re free, MAYBE I’ll take a shot, but paying any sort of cost for these two is out of the question moving forward.
Le’Veon Bell
This may seem strange, but I’m on a hot streak! Two years ago, I was on Bell and rode his enormous volume in 2017 to a few championships. Bell is an incredible talent who’s displayed a huge sample size of success. But early on last offseason, I avoided his ugly holdout situation and thankfully avoided his eventual season-long holdout. Bell cost owners dearly who invested in best ball drafts, and unless they had James Conner in dynasty, likely took an enormous hit there as well. Escaping that landmine has me feeling confident, and RBs playing the second half of their careers for the Jets, in a rebuilding situation, after multiple ENORMOUS volume seasons, is not something I want to buy back into for fantasy purposes. Bell is 27, accumulated 1,541 touches in five seasons, and has two major injuries in the NFL. While it’s impossible to predict when veterans will fall off in play, there’s a lot of negative macro factors facing Bell moving forward. While Bell could certainly have some good years left, there’s a lot of other RBs in his fantasy draft range (across all formats) who are heading into their primes and are lined up for similar workloads.
Jordan Howard
Howard has taken the classic successful late round draft pick career path. Howard’s career has looked eerily similar to former Redskins RB Alfred Morris through three seasons. Howard crushed his rookie season, accumulating 1,611 yards from scrimmage on only 281 touches. He’s followed that up with two more seasons of 1,000 or more yards from scrimmage (1,247 in 2017 and 1,080 in 2018). Much like Morris, the downward trend in usage is partially due to their lack of versatility. Howard’s lack of receiving chops created a scenario where the Bears drafted a receiving down back (Tarik Cohen) who eventually took his usage and subsequently created a situation where Howard was expendable. Howard jumps into a great situation in Philadelphia from a system standpoint, but clearly, the Eagles have plans for the future with the drafting of Miles Sanders in round two of the 2019 draft. Howard’s career matches what we’ve seen from almost all RBs drafted after round four in the NFL draft over the last decade. Between Jay Ajayi (5th round), Andre Ellington (6th), Alex Collins (5th round), Zac Stacy (5th), the aforementioned Morris (6th round), and even Devonta Freeman (4th round), big seasons were followed by injuries, teams drafting replacements and dissipating roles. Howard’s career has looked very similar, and despite landing in a good spot, if his fate is similar to any of his predecessors, he likely doesn’t have as strong of a hold on his role as generally perceived.
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota
This duo has long been exciting, and just about every year, I’ve bit on the hype, at least a little bit. In terms of being NFL prospects, Mariota and Winston had it all. Between Winston leading Florida State to multiple successful offensive seasons, culminating in winning a national championship, he’s been in the spotlight for years. Winston was a star from the second he stepped foot on campus, and it was no shock the NFL evaluated him highly. Same with Mariota. Not only was Mariota one of the most accurate college QBs of all-time (105:14 career TD:INT ratio), but his teams found great success as well. Both came into the NFL with enormous expectations after going first (Winston to Tampa Bay) and second (Mariota to Tennessee) in the 2015 NFL draft, and neither has hit those lofty ideas. Mariota has struggled with a plethora of injuries, ultimately leading to tentative and ineffective play. Winston has been marred by off-field issues and incredibly erratic play. Both are currently in offenses with young talent, and a quality QB would have a real chance to thrive. However, while this is the BEST situation these two have ever been in, they’ve been in good situations before and things simply haven’t worked out. With so many young, emerging QBs who have developed over the last couple years, I’m taking shots with a new set of potential.
Jimmy Graham
Graham simply hasn’t looked the same since his major knee injury, and the drafting of very solid TE prospect Jace Sternberger in round three of the 2019 NFL draft has me worried about not only Graham’s long term prospects, but what his 2019 is going to look like. I have no further thoughts on the matter; it’s simply a situation I’m not touching. As someone with a slight patellar tendon tracking disorder (I’m a baby), I can’t imagine what blowing that tendon out must’ve felt like.
