One of the most successful things veteran fantasy football players do is avoid the hype surrounding incoming rookies at the wide receiver position.
Historically, we’ve seen very few produce elite fantasy numbers right off the bat. In fact, over the past decade, we’ve only seen 13 rookie receivers finish as top-24 fantasy assets — and only eight of them came from the first round!
Not only do very few produce right away, but there’s very few who climb beyond WR4 — top-48 fantasy status — in 12-team leagues. If we’re focusing on drafting successful fantasy players, that should be our baseline for production. Traditional leagues often allow three wide receivers and a flex. Winning that flex position with a productive WR4 is our end game.
So what consists of a WR4? Historically, for a player to get a top-48 fantasy finish, they’ve needed roughly 140 fantasy points (PPR). That’s our objective when looking at rookie receivers — can they meet this 140-point threshold?
Let’s see what history has to say.
Rookie WR Production History
Rookie receivers rarely come out of the gates as sure-fire fantasy picks. In fact, they rarely become flex-worthy fantasy plays. Let’s take a look at all rookie wide receivers over the past ten years that have scored 140-plus fantasy points (PPR).
Over the past decade, we have a player pool of 254 wide receivers that were selected in the NFL draft. There are also many more that became fantasy relevant that went undrafted. Of this 254-plus rookie receiver sample, there have been 41 receivers that scored at least 140-plus fantasy points in their rookie year. Let’s take a look at when these players were drafted to see if we can better predict future success:
Unsurprisingly, the first-round rookie wide receivers had the highest number of 140+ fantasy seasons with 17 individuals meeting our threshold. Overall, 80.5% of the rookie receivers to have an early career breakout for 140+ fantasy points were drafted in the first three rounds.
Let’s zero in on that subset a little more closely.
| Round | Rookie WRs Drafted | Rookie WRs 140+ PPR | 140+ PPR % |
| 1 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% |
| 2 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% |
| 3 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% |
Out of the 36 receivers taken in the first round over the past decade, there’s a 47.2% chance they produce immediately and return a 140+ fantasy season in Year 1. There’s just a 22.5% that second-round receivers accomplish that feat, and that success rate drops to 15.9% when looking at receivers taken in the third. Drafting rookie wide receivers in redraft leagues is a risky move beyond the first round.
2019 Rookie WR Outlook
The 2019 rookie draft class had two rookie receivers selected in the first round. Baltimore selected Marquise Brown with the 25th overall pick and the Patriots took N’Keal Harry at No. 32.
Brown joins a Ravens squad that has the second-most vacated targets from last season (296). The departures of Michael Crabtree and John Brown open up 197 just on their own, but the more important departure here is Joe Flacco. The Ravens operated one of the league’s heaviest run game plans once Lamar Jackson took over, meaning despite a decent target share available as the de facto No. 1 receiver — approximately 18 percent — those 197 targets should be dialed back considerably. Baltimore’s run-heavy style is going to naturally reduce the passing volume and number of targets available for Brown. He’s also vying for targets from one of the league’s most inaccurate passers with Jackson completing just 58.2% of his dropbacks. Brown’s sleight body frame is also a durability concern, and he continues to rehab a Lisfranc injury that could potentially delay his rookie debut. There are quite a few negatives piling up against Brown.
The other first round receiver was the final pick on Day 1 of the NFL draft, N’Keal Harry. Harry joins a Patriots squad that could use some help in the receiver room. Unfortunately for Harry, he was the odd man out in minicamp during 3WR sets, with the Patriots sliding Maurice Harris into the slot and working Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett on the outside. He’ll have to work his way into the first-team rotation, but with an incredible size-speed combo at 6’-2”, 228 pounds, with a 4.53 40-time, it shouldn’t take long for the former Sun Devil to make a fantasy impact. New England has 165 targets up for grabs (ninth-most) and could carve out a role for Harry right away. The unfortunate thing regarding him is that his cost is currently at his ceiling. His redraft ADP of WR35 assumes that Harry beats the odds and churns out a productive fantasy season. But at WR35 costs, there’s no room for error or setbacks if he has a slow training camp. That’s too rich for my blood.
There were seven receivers selected in the second round of this year’s draft. Remember, this group has just a 22.5% chance of turning in a 140-plus PPR season off the bat. We’ll go rapid fire for these receivers.
Deebo Samuel was the earliest draft pick of this group (No. 36 overall) and looks like he’ll slide in as the No. 2 WR in San Francisco’s offense as the “Z” receiver. A healthy Jimmy Garoppolo should make his debut in training camp, which is the biggest factor in Samuel’s early success. Samuel is a better bestball play as a late-round dart throw.
After a bit of a slow start to his professional debut due to injury, there isn’t a ton of optimism for A.J. Brown to reach the 140 PPR mark. In Corey Davis’ rookie year, he came nowhere close (34-375-0, 69.5 PPR points). The Titans are even more run-heavy than they were back then and have even more competition for targets. Brown’s athleticism could lead to some breakout moments, but they’ll likely be sporadic in nature with how many passing options Marcus Mariota has at his disposal.
Kansas City surprised many with the selection of Mecole Hardman in the second, and his fantasy success hinges entirely on the verdict regarding Tyreek Hills’ playing time. If Hill is out for a significant portion of the season, Hardman could make a splash as the WR2 for the Chiefs. Drafted due to having similar athleticism of Hill, Hill had a top-25 fantasy season as a rookie (199 FPs) due to his abilities on special teams, as a receiver, and as a rusher. Hardman could be a darkhorse candidate to join this 140+ PPR club.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside enters camp as the No. 4 wide receiver for the Eagles. Fantastic dynasty stash, but there’s too many mouths to feed for an immediate impact in Year 1.
Indianapolis hopes to utilize Parris Campbell’s speed all over the field as a mismatch for defenders. His ability to create explosive plays gives the Colts a dangerous weapon no matter where they line him up. The one concern that may hold back Campbell from reaching this 140-point threshold is lack of targets. The Colts added Devin Funchess this offseason and will be getting Jack Doyle back. Given his combination of price (WR53) and potential, he may be my favorite second-round pick to break out if he can get enough volume.
The Cardinals coaching staff continues to hide offseason information from us, but we can expect Andy Isabella to be a contributor in this offense Year 1. A heavy rotation with their vets, Isabella, and fellow rookie Hakeem Butler (fourth round) has been established, and with Isabella’s 4.31 speed, he can get behind the defense like few can. This spread-it-around Air Raid offense also includes David Johnson sapping targets, leaving Isabella as a preferred bestball candidate due to inconsistent volume.
The final pick in the second round, D.K. Metcalf has size, speed, and draft capital in his corner to join our esteemed subset of early fantasy producers. Unfortunately, we know Seattle’s “identity” is predicated on running the ball, so passing volume will remain at a premium. He’ll also be competing for vertical patterns with David Moore, who could be on the precipice of a breakout. Metcalf also comes in with a lofty ADP (WR38), making him an easy fade given Seattle’s run-heavy nature.
Conclusions
Over the past decade, just 41 receivers have scored 140-plus fantasy points in their rookie campaign. First-round picks return this value at less than a 50% rate (47.2%) and second-round draft picks more than cut that in half (22.5%). Third rounders and beyond are dart throws.
This class has quality depth, but few will command enough targets in Year 1 to vie for top-48 fantasy status. If I had to put my chips on one player to do so, it’d be N’Keal Harry given his size, speed, and collegiate production. Unfortunately, he also comes at the highest cost (eighth-round ADP). That high draft cost makes him a better target for auction leagues where you’re more likely to find people don’t follow ADP closely. The second-rounders also have some intriguing potential with Campbell and Hardman piquing my interest the most as immediate contributors. While both longshots, their respective ADP has them both in the double-digit rounds where you can afford to take volatile home run swings.
