Last week, we took a look at DRAFT ADP to find risers and fallers over the past month. These leagues vary in size, but the biggest distinguishing factor is it’s half-PPR scoring format.
This week we’re going to dive into the popular Fanball site. Fanball drafts offer a different composition with them being 20 rounds and full PPR. Learn more about drafting at Fanball and the different strategies associated with this site.
Without further ado, let’s get right into some of the highest risers and fallers over at Fanball over the past 30 days.
June ADP Risers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+53.7)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was also one of the biggest risers on DRAFT, but to see him climb four full rounds on Fanball is still rather remarkable. Minicamp updates praising Valdes-Scantling’s work ethic was the main reason for his steep climb, where he now finds himself being drafted in the 10th round as the WR47. Climbing to No. 2 on the depth chart, MVS is now slated to open training camp starting opposite Davante Adams in 2WR sets. Entering his second year, MVS is playing up to his 4.37 speed and not having to think as much. This has opened up the playbook to incorporate more vertical routes in Matt LaFleur’s new offense. Being able to run a multitude of routes can only help the sophomore receiver.
Advice: Keep buying ahead of ADP. The WR2 role in Green Bay can be a highly productive one for fantasy production.
Tyreek Hill (+28.6)
We finally have a news update regarding Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs. He is scheduled to meet with NFL officials in Kansas City this Wednesday (6/26) according to Adam Schefter. Just a few weeks ago we heard that his case is no longer active by police officials, but that his suspension from all team activities was still in place. Training camp starts in four weeks. Hopefully we have clarity on the situation before then.
Advice: Keep fading until Wednesday’s update.
Ronald Jones (+21.3)
This ADP spike to the ninth round as the RB39 was the most puzzling one for me. Even though the Buccaneers failed to address the running back position through free agency or with high draft equity, is Ronald Jones the answer? Jones had an embarrassing 23-44-1 rushing stat line as a rookie. A late hamstring injury led to him playing just 18 snaps in the final eight games of the season, culminating in just one yard of production down the stretch. Tampa Bay’s new coaching staff has reportedly liked what they’ve seen so far from Jones. Practicing without pads has limited a full evaluation, but it’s a positive step that Jones is now consistently reacting to what he sees instead of over-thinking.
Advice: Even if Jones secures just a receiving role, it should be a productive one in Bruce Arian’s system. Despite the wide range of outcomes, I’m still buying ahead of guys like Jerick McKinnon (RB38) and Jordan Howard (RB37). ZeroRB candidate.
Damien Harris (+18.5)
One of the biggest news stories coming out of Patriots’ minicamp was that Damien Harris was seeing a significant number of snaps and opportunities while Sony Michel rehabs from a knee scope earlier this offseason. Michel is still slated to enter training camp on time, but Harris entered the news cycle while people started double-counting Michel’s knee injury history against him causing the spike in ADP. Drafted in the third round, Harris has impressed with a strong offseason and could challenge Michel for early down work.
Advice: New England running backs are notoriously difficult to project heading into a season. Harris has climbed into the ninth round and I’d continue to draft him in that round around the same area as Ronald Jones.
Adrian Peterson (+17.2)
Perhaps it was Adrian Peterson’s hyperbolic season goal of 2,000 rushing yards that have drafters excited for his 2019 potential, but he’s an easy fade for me at this new ADP in the 14th round. I don’t know if Peterson forgot whether or not Derrius Guice was still on the roster, but after the team spent significant draft capital on him last year (second round pick), he’s not going to be sitting idly by for a second season. Washington is expecting Guice to be ready for training camp. That will allow both backs to finally play with pads on and let the team further evaluate Guice’s progress in his return. It should only be a matter of time until Guice takes over lead back duties as the alpha of this backfield.
Advice: 2,000 rushing yards? Not a chance. Give me the under on 700.
June ADP Fallers
Mecole Hardman (-20.7) and Demarcus Robinson (-17.2)
Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson’s declines are a direct reflection of the rise in Tyreek Hill. Over the last three seasons in Kansas City, Reid’s offenses have targeted the third wide receiver with a collective 9.5% target share, cresting at 69 targets in a season. Week-to-week consistency with these two players will be tough to endure in redraft, but they make for fine bestball targets with Patrick Mahomes under center. There is no shortage of weapons for Mahomes to throw to in Kansas City this year, with or without Hill.
Advice: If by Wednesday we learn that Hill is suspended for a significant of time, take Hardman in the 12th round. If the NFL gives Hill a slap on the wrist with a two game suspension or less, pivot to the cheaper of the two and go with Robinson in the 18th.
Hayden Hurst (-18.9)
Sometimes ADP just corrects itself naturally and I think this is a case with Hayden Hurst. Baltimore selected the speedy Marquise Brown in the first round of the draft and took the athletic, big-bodied Miles Boykin in round three. That’s the most probable explanation for Hurst sliding back to undrafted territory. The Ravens will continue to utilize multiple tight end sets, but Mark Andrews lhas locked up lead tight end duties following his 500-yard breakout season as a rookie. The team also signed Nick Boyle (37 targets last year) to a three-year, $18M contract ($10M guaranteed) to also play a role here.
Advice: There are better TE3 candidates to pursue.
Dexter Williams (-17.7)
Another Packers player enters the monthly update, with Dexter Williams falling 17.7 spot down to undrafted territory. Often available as your final round pick, Williams’ slide is an interesting one given how little news we’ve heard out of camp regarding him. We know that the Packers aim to run a committee led by Aaron Jones and backed up by Jamaal Williams. LaFleur has stated this already. However, with two capable backs in Jones and Jamaal ahead of Dexter, this looks like a longshot for him to see significant snaps.
Advice: If mass-entering I can see a case for using your last pick on Williams as an RB6, but he should be a sub <5% owned player in your portfolio.
Deebo Samuel (-16.8)
We’ve now had a month to reflect on the pecking order of the targets in San Francisco and outside some Deebo Samuel diehards, the most likely outcome is that Dante Pettis emerges as the target leader at the wideout position. Pettis suffered through some injuries his rookie year, but led all wide receivers in receiving yards (467) and receiving touchdowns (5). Pettis has done all the right things in OTAs and minicamp so far, and currently looks slated to start as the team’s “X” receiver. Samuel is projected to start as the team’s “Z” receiver starting opposite Pettis in 2WR sets.
Advice: Samuel likely projects third in terms of the target pecking order, but there should be enough meat on the bone for him to pay off 17th round value as a dart throw.
