The 2017 NFL Draft was a terrific one for fantasy football. There are already multiple players inside the top-five at their respective positions among Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, JuJu Smith-Schuster, George Kittle, O.J. Howard, and Evan Engram.
Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Godwin, and David Njoku have also found early fantasy success in their first two seasons.
Despite how many players immediately rose to prominence, there’s still a few players in this class that either needed some time to develop or had immediate roadblocks to their playing time before they had a chance to breakout from a fantasy perspective. ESPN’s Mike Clay did a recent study on receivers that have reached the 150-plus fantasy point threshold — roughly a top-40 fantasy campaign. Of the 125 receivers that have reached 150-plus fantasy points over the past 12 seasons, 82% of them completed this task by the end of their third season. Essentially, if these players are to ever make a top-40 fantasy impact, they’ll either likely do it before the end of Year 3 or not at all.
These are the types of players we’re going to focus on today. I’ll take a look at running backs and wide receivers outside the top-24 in current ADP for players with breakout potential this season. While I’m writing this with a redraft set of mind, one could absolutely consider these players buys when viewing it from a dynasty angle.
Let’s get to it.
2019 Breakout Candidates
Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR44 ADP)
Entering camp as the No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville, there isn’t much hype surrounding Dede Westbrook. That’s fine by me. I’ll continue scooping him in the 9th/10th rounds of bestball drafts. Westbrook stands to be in line for a decent increase from the 101 targets he saw last year. Jacksonville has the third-most vacated targets from last season (257 targets) and with an upgrade at quarterback in Nick Foles, the Jaguars passing game could be improved greatly. The competition behind Westbrook is thin, at best, and it wouldn’t surprise at all to see him take on a larger target share in 2019 after leading the team last year (19%). Add in an uptick in the pass play percentage over run play with Foles under center, and you’re looking at a potential 125-target bona fide breakout candidate.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers (WR49 ADP)
Curtis Samuel’s breakout candidacy is something we’ve already discussed at great length as a #FridayFantasyFocus candidate, but we’ll address a few bullet points here for sake of argument. Samuel’s biggest threat to a breakout is the combination of a balanced playcaller with a slow pace of play capping his target ceiling. D.J. Moore is also in the mix as a threat to sap away targets when Cam Newton faces quick pressure, but it’ll have to take a sizable jump in target volume for Samuel to emerge as a big-time fantasy factor. A potential Moore injury could lead to this with Samuel acting as the de facto No. 1 receiver or a slew of injuries to the defense that forces the Panthers to throw more in catch-up mode. Samuel remains squarely on the WR4 flex radar due to inconsistent volume, but his 4.31 speed means he could pop up with WR1 weeks due to spike plays on any given week.
David Moore, WR, Seattle Seahawks (WR68+ ADP)
There’s one very obvious roadblock to David Moore’s potential breakout season — rookie D.K. Metcalf. There’s also a lot of promise for Moore to hurdle that obstacle. Metcalf has completed just one full season during his three-year collegiate career. Hardly the ideal picture of health, Metcalf also has limited experience running routes beyond the hitch, curl, comeback, and nine. Moore also has to deal with playing on the most run-heavy squad in the league. Moore showed last year that even with limited volume he was able to excel. From Weeks 5-12, Moore was the fantasy WR25 including two top-12 weeks. His 18.7 yards per reception and 17.7 average depth of target were both top-six during that frame. With the draft capital Seattle just spent on Metcalf, Moore has tougher odds of breaking out in 2019, but he showed last season that he’s a very capable downfield threat whenever his name is called.
Long-Shots
Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers (RB61)
Aaron Jones truthers may want to shield their eyes from this one, but through Jones’ first two seasons, he hasn’t exactly been a model of perfect health. He’s missed 8-of-32 games with MCL injuries to both knees in his short NFL career. The Packers allegedly want to open camp with Jones as the lead back in a committee after he started his career with back-to-back 5.5 yards per carry seasons. He’s been by far the more efficient between himself and Jamaal Williams. Unfortunately, injuries are a part of this violent game, and could force him out at some point. At this point, Williams will enter as the main back on an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that should be capable of putting up points in bunches. Williams’ receiving production has been flat-out poor to start his career, so he’ll have to atone for losing that fantasy work with efficient red zone usage. Given the Packers offseason moves, Green Bay could be in for a ton of red zone opportunities as potential NFC North winners. A healthy Jones most likely keeps Williams out of fantasy relevance outside the sporadic touchdown-inflated weeks. That being said, I still believe he’s worth some late round shots in bestball leagues (if mass entering) given the potential upside sans Jones.
Ryan Switzer, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR68+ ADP)
What if the big wide receiver issue that we’re excited for in Pittsburgh isn’t the battle for WR2 duties, but instead the rise of Ryan Switzer in the slot? Ben Roethlisberger completed 70.1% of his throws when aiming at Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot last season, with the two combining for a 96-1,129-9 stat line. Smith-Schuster ran 61.5% of his routes from the slot last year, but with Brown’s departure to Oakland, Smith-Schuster will likely slide back to around the 20% mark that Brown held as the Steeler’s top wideout. That presents an intriguing value play with Switzer if he can scoop up the large majority of leftover slot snaps. Switzer still must contend with Eli Rogers for top slot responsibilities, but in limited reps last year looked better than Rogers in fantasy points per touch (1.65, 1.50) and yards per route run (1.05, 1.03). At the very least, he’s worth picking up on your dynasty waiver wire as a potential stash.
