The Indians need offense, so they made the move over the weekend to call up one of their best power bats in Bobby Bradley. The name might be boring an uninteresting, but that doesn’t mean the game is. What do we have with power-hitting Bobby Bradley?
23 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 225 lbs
Position: First Base
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2014 |
RK |
39 |
.361 |
8 |
50 |
39 |
3 |
1.078 |
|
2015 |
A, A+ |
110 |
.364 |
27 |
92 |
62 |
3 |
.875 |
|
2016 |
A+ |
131 |
.235 |
29 |
102 |
82 |
3 |
.810 |
|
2017 |
AA |
131 |
.251 |
23 |
89 |
66 |
3 |
.796 |
|
2018 |
AA, AAA |
129 |
.224 |
27 |
93 |
60 |
1 |
.774 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
67 |
.292 |
24 |
55 |
43 |
0 |
.997 |
|
|
Totals |
607 |
.256 |
138 |
471 |
352 |
13 |
.852 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2016 |
93rd |
|
93rd |
|
2017 |
|
|
95th |
Bradley was a third round selection in the 2014 Entry Draft.
THE SKILLS
Nicknamed “The Assassin,” Bradley was leading the International League in homers and SLG (.638) at the time of his recall (even if he owns a 40 percent HR/FB ratio which is, of course, not sustainable). At the same time, swing and miss has been a huge part of his game with 91 punchouts in 257 at-bats in 2019. Here is what his manager, Terry Francona, had to say about Bradley upon his callup. “His defense is better. His ability to not just swing the bat, but try to be intelligent at the plate and understand what people are doing to him has improved greatly. … Guys that hit with that much power, there’s going to be some swing-and-miss. That’s part of it. It just seems that overall, he’s maturing. Like most [23]-year-olds do, you start to grow up and that’s part of it.”
Let’s dive in.
Bradley is not necessarily an elite prospect. Most services had him as a top-10 Indians minor leaguer, but again, not elite. A quick scouting report follows. Bradley has the best power in the Indians system thanks to his physical size and plus bat speed. He uses his left handed stroke displaying power to all fields with most services rankings his power in the 60-65 range. He doesn’t have elite power, but it’s pretty close. He also takes a walk, something many young swingers don’t do, but his arm is poor, his defense moderate, and his speed on the base paths is painfully slow. Make no mistake – this is a slugging corner infielder.
Bradley is a three-outcome player: walk, strikeout, homer.
Bradley’s minor league walk rate is 10.9 percent (the 2019 big-league average is 8.7 percent).
Bradley’s minor league strikeout rate is 27.7 percent (the 2019 big-league average is 22.7 percent).
Bradley’s minor league HR/AB rate is 16.3 (the 2019 big-league average is 21.5).
So, Bradley walks at better the big-league average, hits a long ball better than the league average, and strikes out at greater than the big-league average.
Look, this game plays in 2019 MLB. Is it an exciting skill-set? No, it isn’t, but it plays.
The concerns with Bradley center on his strike out ways. Above we noted the 27.7 K-rate for Bradley. However, things have gotten much worst of late for him as he’s climbed the ladder. In 99 games at Triple-A the K-rate has exploded. Thanks to 134 punchouts in 99 games, Bradley’s Triple-A strikeout rate is 33 percent. That’s hideous. Here are the current big-league batters with a K-rate of 30-percent.
Wil Myers at 35.8 percent (batting .219).
Brandon Lowe at 35.1 percent (batting .282).
Michael Chavis at 34.1 percent (batting .259).
Rougned Odor at 31.8 percent (batting .175).
The only reason that Lowe is producing so many hits is his absurdly high .399 BABIP that isn’t sustainable.
The truth is this – it’s extremely difficult to hit .250 with a K-rate that high. In fact, it’s not likely to happen. Here are the 2018 leaders in K-rate.
Chris Davis hit .168 (36.8).
Joey Gallo hit .206 (35.9).
Yoan Moncada hit .235 (33.4).
Teoscar Hernandez hit .239 (31.2).
Oh, and here is 2017.
Chris Davis hit .215 (37.2).
Joey Gallo hit .209 (36.8).
Trevor Story hit .239 (34.4).
Aaron Judge hit .284 (30.7).
Bradley will either need to cut down the K-rate appreciably, or the absolute best-case scenario for him is Jay Bruce. Note, I said best case. Worst case is Yonder Alonso level stuff.
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PLAYING TIME
No reason to call him up, and not play him every single day.
Carlos Gonzalez is gone.
Leonys Martin has been designated for assignment.
To this point, the Indians designated hitters have been passable with a .252 average, a .327 OBP and a .464 SLG. Those numbers are barely better than league average.
The expectation is that Jake Bauers will shift to a support role in the infield and potentially move to the outfield on a more full-time basis. Carlos Santana and Bradley figure to become fixtures at first base and designated hitter in the daily lineup. A positive note for Bradley is that he’s hit .319 with nine homers against lefties this season suggesting that he does not necessarily be to be in a platoon situation. However, his work against lefties at Double-A in 2018 was poor (.184/.314/.378).
CONCLUSION
Bradley is a potentially exciting power prospect, and he should play daily for the Indians. That said, Bradley has major contact issues, and despite all that minor league success this season he was on pace for about 180 punchouts over 500 at-bats. When you make so little contact, your batting average is at grave risk with BABIP and HR/FB ratio either keeping you around league average in batting average, or if they slip, leading you to a spot on the bench or a return to the minor leagues. Further dampening Bradley’s outlook is that his skill-set is the same as about 15 other guys playing first base in the big-leagues. Not saying you can’t add Bradley, certainly viable to do just that. I’m merely stating that what he does isn’t likely to separate him from the pack given the defensive position he plays.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
