I’ve been working on building my fantasy projections for the 2019 season. It’s a fruitful, yet arduous exercise going team by team, position by position, and breaking down market shares, touchdown rates, catch percentage, etc.
One of the most beneficial things I take away from doing this exercise every year is seeing how a team utilizes its different players in different roles. More specifically, finding out precisely where a player’s fantasy points come from. Are they superior touchdown scorers with a high touchdown rate? Does their high average depth of target explain the low catch rate? Did they have an uncharacteristically high target share due to another player’s injury?
Finding out the composition of exactly where a player’s fantasy points stem from can be an extremely helpful exercise when forecasting future fantasy potential.
Let’s go position-by-position and see exactly where the scoring came from in the 2018 season.
Quarterbacks
| Rk | Name | Team | YDS | TD | INT | RU YDS | TD | FPTS | YDS % | TD % | Rush YDS % | RUSH TD % |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | 5097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 | 482.05 | 42.3% | 41.5% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| 2 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 4923 | 35 | 7 | 125 | 3 | 416.15 | 47.3% | 33.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% |
| 3 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 5129 | 34 | 16 | 98 | 3 | 404.15 | 50.8% | 33.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% |
| 4 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 4165 | 26 | 9 | 551 | 5 | 388.35 | 42.9% | 26.8% | 14.2% | 7.7% |
| 5 | Andrew Luck | IND | 4593 | 39 | 15 | 148 | 0 | 385.85 | 47.6% | 40.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Jared Goff | LAR | 4688 | 32 | 13 | 108 | 2 | 372.2 | 50.4% | 34.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 4442 | 25 | 2 | 269 | 2 | 359 | 49.5% | 27.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| 8 | Drew Brees | NO | 3992 | 32 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 348.9 | 45.8% | 36.7% | 0.6% | 6.9% |
| 9 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 4298 | 30 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 343.1 | 50.1% | 35.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| 10 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 3448 | 35 | 7 | 376 | 0 | 341.9 | 40.3% | 40.9% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 3884 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 6 | 340.7 | 45.6% | 25.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% |
| 12 | Tom Brady | NE | 4355 | 29 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 338.85 | 51.4% | 34.2% | 1.0% | 3.5% |
| 13 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 4308 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 332.1 | 51.9% | 38.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Cam Newton | CAR | 3395 | 24 | 13 | 488 | 4 | 325.55 | 41.7% | 29.5% | 15.0% | 7.4% |
| 15 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 3223 | 24 | 12 | 421 | 3 | 305.25 | 42.2% | 31.4% | 13.8% | 5.9% |
| 16 | Eli Manning | NYG | 4299 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 295.95 | 58.1% | 28.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 17 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 293.35 | 50.8% | 36.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Derek Carr | OAK | 4049 | 19 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 278.25 | 58.2% | 27.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| 19 | Case Keenum | DEN | 3890 | 18 | 15 | 93 | 2 | 272.8 | 57.0% | 26.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| 20 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 3777 | 21 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 268.95 | 56.2% | 31.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Jameis Winston | TB | 2992 | 19 | 14 | 283 | 1 | 245.9 | 48.7% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 2.4% |
| 22 | Josh Allen | BUF | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 242.8 | 34.2% | 16.5% | 26.0% | 19.8% |
| 23 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 3074 | 21 | 7 | 93 | 0 | 240.4 | 51.1% | 34.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 2719 | 13 | 11 | 365 | 1 | 219.45 | 49.6% | 23.7% | 16.6% | 2.7% |
| 25 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 216.05 | 53.0% | 31.5% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| 26 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 2528 | 11 | 8 | 357 | 2 | 212.2 | 47.7% | 20.7% | 16.8% | 5.7% |
| 27 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 2566 | 21 | 11 | 99 | 0 | 211.2 | 48.6% | 39.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | TB | 2366 | 17 | 12 | 152 | 2 | 201.5 | 47.0% | 33.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| 29 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 1201 | 6 | 3 | 697 | 5 | 180.75 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 38.6% | 16.6% |
| 30 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 1979 | 17 | 9 | 145 | 0 | 178.75 | 44.3% | 38.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 2465 | 12 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 169.75 | 58.1% | 28.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Alex Smith | WAS | 2180 | 10 | 5 | 168 | 1 | 166.8 | 52.3% | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% |
| 33 | Josh Rosen | ARI | 2278 | 11 | 14 | 138 | 0 | 157.7 | 57.8% | 27.9% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Nick Mullens | SF | 2277 | 13 | 10 | -16 | 0 | 154.25 | 59.0% | 33.7% | -1.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 | C.J. Beathard | SF | 1252 | 8 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 100.5 | 49.8% | 31.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
The first thing that I noticed were the quarterbacks with over 40% of their fantasy scoring coming from passing touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes (8.6% TD Rate) and Russell Wilson (8.2%) led the league in touchdown rates per pass attempt — well above the 5.0% league average. Andrew Luck (6.2%) was also in that 40% subset, but his 639 pass attempts dwarfed Mahomes (580) and Wilson (427), giving him a much more sustainable rate. Wilson’s 8.2% was a career-high, with him having touchdown rates of just 6.1% and 3.8% the previous two seasons. I’d expect Mahomes and Wilson to drop towards the league average after having such astronomical scoring seasons last year.
At the other end of the spectrum, it was interesting that two quarterbacks who saw most of their fantasy points come from their rushing production, finished at the bottom in passing touchdown scoring percentage. Josh Allen (16.5%) and Lamar Jackson (13.3%) had very little of their overall fantasy output come from throwing passing touchdowns last season. Both led the 35-quarterback grouping in percentage of Rush Yds% (26.0%, 38.6%) and Rush TD% (19.8%, 16.6%), respectively. If last year’s rookies can develop their passing touchdown rates, they could become some fearsome fantasy factors in 2019.
Speaking of rushing studs, Drew Brees scored four rushing touchdowns last season, which is where 6.9% of his total fantasy points came from. That was a career-high for the 18-year seasoned veteran and something easy to pencil in for regression heading into 2019. It’s not very often Brees and Cam Newton have the same number of rushing touchdowns in a season.
Running Backs
| Rk | Player | Team | Yds | Tot TD | Rec | Yds | REC % | TD % | Rush Yd % | Rec Yds % | TOT FP’s |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 1098 | 13 | 107 | 867 | 27.6% | 20.1% | 28.3% | 22.3% | 388 |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 1307 | 15 | 91 | 721 | 23.7% | 23.4% | 34.1% | 18.8% | 383.8 |
| 3 | Todd Gurley | LAR | 1251 | 21 | 59 | 580 | 16.0% | 34.2% | 34.0% | 15.8% | 368.1 |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 883 | 18 | 81 | 709 | 23.3% | 31.0% | 25.4% | 20.4% | 348.2 |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 1435 | 9 | 77 | 567 | 23.2% | 16.3% | 43.3% | 17.1% | 331.2 |
| 6 | James Conner | PIT | 973 | 13 | 55 | 497 | 19.6% | 27.9% | 34.8% | 17.8% | 280 |
| 7 | James White | NE | 425 | 12 | 87 | 751 | 31.5% | 26.0% | 15.4% | 27.2% | 276.6 |
| 8 | Melvin Gordon III | LAC | 885 | 14 | 50 | 490 | 18.4% | 30.9% | 32.6% | 18.0% | 271.5 |
| 9 | David Johnson | ARI | 941 | 10 | 50 | 446 | 20.1% | 24.1% | 37.8% | 17.9% | 248.7 |
| 10 | Joe Mixon | CIN | 1168 | 9 | 43 | 296 | 17.7% | 22.2% | 48.0% | 12.2% | 243.4 |
| 11 | Tarik Cohen | CHI | 441 | 8 | 71 | 725 | 29.6% | 20.0% | 18.4% | 30.3% | 239.65 |
| 12 | Kareem Hunt | KC | 824 | 14 | 26 | 378 | 11.3% | 36.5% | 35.8% | 16.4% | 230.2 |
| 13 | Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 1037 | 10 | 35 | 241 | 15.7% | 26.9% | 46.5% | 10.8% | 222.8 |
| 14 | Kenyan Drake | MIA | 535 | 9 | 53 | 477 | 25.5% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 22.9% | 208.2 |
| 15 | Chris Carson | SEA | 1151 | 9 | 20 | 163 | 9.7% | 26.3% | 56.0% | 7.9% | 205.4 |
| 16 | Derrick Henry | TEN | 1059 | 12 | 15 | 99 | 7.4% | 35.4% | 52.0% | 4.9% | 203.5 |
| 17 | Nick Chubb | CLE | 996 | 10 | 20 | 149 | 10.3% | 30.8% | 51.2% | 7.7% | 194.5 |
| 18 | Tevin Coleman | ATL | 800 | 9 | 32 | 276 | 16.5% | 27.9% | 41.3% | 14.3% | 193.6 |
| 19 | Adrian Peterson | WAS | 1042 | 8 | 20 | 208 | 10.4% | 24.9% | 54.0% | 10.8% | 193 |
| 20 | Jordan Howard | CHI | 935 | 9 | 20 | 145 | 11.0% | 29.7% | 51.4% | 8.0% | 182 |
| 21 | Marlon Mack | IND | 908 | 10 | 17 | 103 | 9.5% | 33.7% | 51.0% | 5.8% | 178.1 |
| 22 | T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 414 | 5 | 55 | 487 | 31.4% | 17.1% | 23.6% | 27.8% | 175.1 |
| 23 | Lamar Miller | HOU | 973 | 6 | 25 | 163 | 14.3% | 20.6% | 55.7% | 9.3% | 174.6 |
| 24 | Aaron Jones | GB | 729 | 9 | 26 | 206 | 15.0% | 31.1% | 42.0% | 11.9% | 173.5 |
| 25 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 554 | 6 | 39 | 404 | 22.8% | 21.1% | 32.4% | 23.7% | 170.8 |
| 26 | Matt Breida | SF | 814 | 5 | 27 | 261 | 16.4% | 18.2% | 49.5% | 15.9% | 164.5 |
| 27 | Dion Lewis | TEN | 517 | 2 | 59 | 400 | 36.3% | 7.4% | 31.8% | 24.6% | 162.7 |
| 28 | Nyheim Hines | IND | 314 | 4 | 63 | 425 | 39.2% | 14.9% | 19.5% | 26.4% | 160.9 |
| 29 | Jalen Richard | OAK | 259 | 1 | 68 | 607 | 42.3% | 3.7% | 16.1% | 37.8% | 160.6 |
| 30 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | 615 | 4 | 40 | 305 | 25.6% | 15.4% | 39.4% | 19.6% | 156 |
| 31 | Peyton Barber | TB | 871 | 6 | 20 | 92 | 13.1% | 23.6% | 57.2% | 6.0% | 152.3 |
| 32 | Mark Ingram II | NO | 645 | 7 | 21 | 170 | 14.5% | 29.1% | 44.6% | 11.8% | 144.5 |
| 33 | Kerryon Johnson | DET | 641 | 4 | 32 | 213 | 22.6% | 17.0% | 45.3% | 15.1% | 141.4 |
| 34 | Sony Michel | NE | 931 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 5.0% | 25.5% | 66.0% | 3.5% | 141.1 |
| 35 | Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | 685 | 6 | 21 | 152 | 14.9% | 25.6% | 48.7% | 10.8% | 140.7 |
| 36 | Mike Davis | SEA | 514 | 5 | 34 | 214 | 24.9% | 21.9% | 37.6% | 15.6% | 136.8 |
| 37 | Latavius Murray | MIN | 578 | 6 | 22 | 141 | 16.9% | 27.7% | 44.5% | 10.9% | 129.9 |
| 38 | Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 201 | 3 | 47 | 429 | 36.7% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 33.5% | 128 |
| 39 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 514 | 3 | 34 | 238 | 26.7% | 14.2% | 40.4% | 18.7% | 127.2 |
| 40 | Doug Martin | OAK | 723 | 4 | 18 | 116 | 14.3% | 19.1% | 57.4% | 9.2% | 125.9 |
| 41 | Leonard Fournette | JAX | 439 | 6 | 22 | 185 | 18.3% | 29.9% | 36.5% | 15.4% | 120.4 |
| 42 | Wendell Smallwood | PHI | 364 | 5 | 28 | 230 | 23.9% | 25.6% | 31.0% | 19.6% | 117.4 |
| 43 | Theo Riddick | DET | 171 | 0 | 61 | 384 | 52.4% | 0.0% | 14.7% | 33.0% | 116.5 |
| 44 | Alex Collins | BAL | 411 | 8 | 15 | 105 | 13.1% | 41.9% | 35.9% | 9.2% | 114.6 |
| 45 | Jamaal Williams | GB | 464 | 3 | 27 | 210 | 24.0% | 16.0% | 41.3% | 18.7% | 112.4 |
| 46 | Royce Freeman | DEN | 521 | 5 | 14 | 72 | 13.6% | 29.0% | 50.4% | 7.0% | 103.3 |
| 47 | Frank Gore | MIA | 722 | 1 | 12 | 124 | 11.7% | 5.8% | 70.4% | 12.1% | 102.6 |
| 48 | Damien Williams | KC | 256 | 6 | 23 | 160 | 22.9% | 35.8% | 25.4% | 15.9% | 100.6 |
| 49 | Carlos Hyde | JAX | 571 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 10.0% | 29.9% | 56.9% | 3.3% | 100.4 |
| 50 | Ito Smith | ATL | 315 | 4 | 27 | 152 | 27.6% | 24.6% | 32.2% | 15.6% | 97.7 |
Two of the top-three most touchdown-dependent running backs were Chiefs running backs Kareem Hunt (36.5%) and Damien Williams (35.8%). This valuable fantasy role solely belongs to Williams entering 2019 as both backs’ fantasy values were buoyed by high touchdown rates. Derrick Henry also falls into this group (fourth-highest, 35.4%) of productive touchdown scorers. The Titans back looks like a terrific fourth-round value pick in early fantasy drafts.
Frank Gore (70.4%) and Sony Michel (66.0%) paved the way in highest percentage of rushing yards comprising of their total fantasy value. Neither player registered much in the receiving category and it doesn’t look like that should change entering 2019. These types of players that are so dependent on rushing productivity without heavy touchdown rates to supplement their fantasy value are easy avoids in PPR leagues.
Last year’s top receiving backs that had over 60 percent of their fantasy value come from their receptions and receiving yards were Theo Riddick (85.3%), Jalen Richard (80.1%), Duke Johnson (70.2%), Nyheim Hines (65.6%), and Dion Lewis (60.8%). These receiving backs are often more helpful in actual football than in terms of fantasy production. The main reason is that while they provide a steady week-to-week floor, their spike weeks are fairly difficult to predict. The only two that I’m interested in drafting this year are Hines and Richard in bestball leagues. Hines receiving work and touchdown potential in one of the league’s premiere offenses makes him a viable RB5 target and Richard makes for a great RB6 candidate as one of your final picks.
Wide Receivers
| RK | NAME | TM | REC | YDS | TD | POINTS | REC % | YDS % | TD % |
| 1 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 337.5 | 29.9% | 46.6% | 19.6% |
| 2 | Julio Jones | ATL | 113 | 1676 | 8 | 329.8 | 29.1% | 50.8% | 14.6% |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill | KC | 87 | 1479 | 12 | 328 | 31.1% | 45.1% | 22.0% |
| 4 | Davante Adams | GB | 111 | 1386 | 13 | 327.6 | 33.3% | 42.3% | 23.8% |
| 5 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 104 | 1297 | 15 | 323.7 | 34.6% | 40.1% | 27.8% |
| 6 | Michael Thomas | NO | 125 | 1405 | 9 | 319.5 | 32.6% | 44.0% | 16.9% |
| 7 | Adam Thielen | MIN | 113 | 1373 | 9 | 307.3 | 28.6% | 44.7% | 17.6% |
| 8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 111 | 1426 | 7 | 296.9 | 30.7% | 48.0% | 14.1% |
| 9 | Mike Evans | TB | 86 | 1524 | 8 | 292.4 | 25.6% | 52.1% | 16.4% |
| 10 | Robert Woods | LAR | 86 | 1219 | 6 | 265.6 | 28.2% | 45.9% | 13.6% |
| 11 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 102 | 1021 | 9 | 264.3 | 23.1% | 38.6% | 20.4% |
| 12 | Keenan Allen | LAC | 97 | 1196 | 6 | 260.1 | 35.4% | 46.0% | 13.8% |
| 13 | Brandin Cooks | LAR | 80 | 1204 | 5 | 243.2 | 30.8% | 49.5% | 12.3% |
| 14 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | 76 | 1270 | 6 | 239 | 31.0% | 53.1% | 15.1% |
| 15 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 77 | 1052 | 6 | 233.4 | 27.8% | 45.1% | 15.4% |
| 16 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | 76 | 1028 | 7 | 221.1 | 37.5% | 46.5% | 19.0% |
| 17 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 57 | 965 | 10 | 220.4 | 32.2% | 43.8% | 27.2% |
| 18 | Amari Cooper | OAK/DAL | 75 | 1004 | 7 | 219.4 | 28.7% | 45.8% | 19.1% |
| 19 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | 81 | 976 | 4 | 217.75 | 29.4% | 44.8% | 11.0% |
| 20 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 27.3% | 39.3% | 28.7% |
| 21 | Julian Edelman | NE | 74 | 850 | 6 | 207.85 | 30.3% | 40.9% | 17.3% |
| 22 | Kenny Golladay | DET | 70 | 1063 | 5 | 207.1 | 29.9% | 51.3% | 14.5% |
| 23 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 71 | 868 | 4 | 198.5 | 29.2% | 43.7% | 12.1% |
| 24 | Adam Humphries | TB | 76 | 816 | 5 | 188.7 | 36.6% | 43.2% | 15.9% |
| 25 | Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 65 | 843 | 6 | 185.3 | 33.5% | 45.5% | 19.4% |
| 26 | Chris Godwin | TB | 59 | 842 | 7 | 185.2 | 35.1% | 45.5% | 22.7% |
| 27 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 69 | 734 | 6 | 184 | 31.0% | 39.9% | 19.6% |
| 28 | Corey Davis | TEN | 65 | 891 | 4 | 183.6 | 31.6% | 48.5% | 13.1% |
| 29 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 66 | 838 | 4 | 182.45 | 36.7% | 45.9% | 13.2% |
| 30 | Golden Tate | DET/PHI | 74 | 795 | 4 | 180.9 | 32.1% | 43.9% | 13.3% |
| 31 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 66 | 872 | 4 | 180.5 | 31.0% | 48.3% | 13.3% |
| 32 | Mike Williams | LAC | 43 | 664 | 10 | 178.2 | 31.4% | 37.3% | 33.7% |
| 33 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 66 | 718 | 5 | 177.6 | 37.2% | 40.4% | 16.9% |
| 34 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | 64 | 736 | 4 | 165.55 | 32.0% | 44.5% | 14.5% |
| 35 | Zay Jones | BUF | 56 | 652 | 7 | 163.2 | 40.4% | 40.0% | 25.7% |
| 36 | D.J. Moore | CAR | 55 | 788 | 2 | 163 | 29.4% | 48.3% | 7.4% |
| 37 | Robby Anderson | NYJ | 50 | 752 | 6 | 160.4 | 33.0% | 46.9% | 22.4% |
| 38 | Demaryius Thomas | HOU | 59 | 677 | 5 | 156.7 | 33.2% | 43.2% | 19.1% |
| 39 | Allen Robinson | CHI | 55 | 754 | 4 | 155.3 | 28.3% | 48.6% | 15.5% |
| 40 | Jordy Nelson | OAK | 63 | 739 | 3 | 154.7 | 36.2% | 47.8% | 11.6% |
| 41 | Taylor Gabriel | CHI | 67 | 688 | 2 | 153.9 | 25.3% | 44.7% | 7.8% |
| 42 | A.J. Green | CIN | 46 | 694 | 6 | 151.4 | 39.0% | 45.8% | 23.8% |
| 43 | DeSean Jackson | TB | 41 | 774 | 4 | 151.3 | 40.3% | 51.2% | 15.9% |
| 44 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 65 | 672 | 3 | 150.2 | 33.3% | 44.7% | 12.0% |
| 45 | John Brown | BAL | 42 | 715 | 5 | 143.9 | 29.9% | 49.7% | 20.8% |
| 46 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 50 | 618 | 5 | 141.8 | 37.4% | 43.6% | 21.2% |
| 47 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | 39 | 494 | 5 | 138.8 | 34.6% | 35.6% | 21.6% |
| 48 | Josh Gordon | NE | 41 | 737 | 4 | 138.7 | 30.3% | 53.1% | 17.3% |
| 49 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | 41 | 653 | 5 | 137.8 | 36.3% | 47.4% | 21.8% |
| 50 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 42 | 704 | 4 | 136.3 | 41.8% | 51.7% | 17.6% |
It was interesting to find that when sorting by Rec%, it wasn’t solely the high-catch, PPR receivers we normally think of leading the way, it was also the downfield vertical threats. Courtland Sutton (41.8%), DeSean Jackson (40.3%), A.J. Green (39.0%), and Tyrell Williams (36.3%) joined PPR magnets Tyler Boyd (37.5%), Doug Baldwin (37.4%), Mohamad Sanu (36.7%), and Adam Humphries (36.6%) in the top-ten. The downfield threats also had high Yds%, but their low TD% kept them in range with the PPR magnets.
Heavy touchdown scorers like Mike Williams (33.7%), Calvin Ridley (28.7%), and Antonio Brown (27.8%) could all see a dip in touchdown scoring next season due to various reasons. Williams has Hunter Henry and his high touchdown rate to contend with, Ridley has the return of Devonta Freeman to sap away red zone work, and Brown joins an entirely new squad. Their respective touchdown-to-reception rates all crested 14% and should be lower in 2019.
Tight Ends
| RK | NAME | TM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | FAN PTS | REC PT % | YDS PTS % | TD PTS % |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | KC | 150 | 103 | 1336 | 10 | 296.6 | 34.7% | 45.0% | 20.2% |
| 2 | Zach Ertz | PHI | 156 | 116 | 1163 | 8 | 280.3 | 41.4% | 41.5% | 17.1% |
| 3 | George Kittle | SF | 135 | 88 | 1377 | 5 | 256.7 | 34.3% | 53.6% | 11.7% |
| 4 | Eric Ebron | IND | 110 | 66 | 750 | 13 | 224.2 | 29.4% | 33.5% | 34.8% |
| 5 | Jared Cook | OAK | 101 | 68 | 896 | 6 | 193.6 | 35.1% | 46.3% | 18.6% |
| 6 | Austin Hooper | ATL | 88 | 71 | 660 | 4 | 161 | 44.1% | 41.0% | 14.9% |
| 7 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 81 | 64 | 634 | 4 | 151.4 | 42.3% | 41.9% | 15.9% |
| 8 | Trey Burton | CHI | 84 | 54 | 569 | 6 | 147.1 | 36.7% | 38.7% | 24.5% |
| 9 | David Njoku | CLE | 89 | 56 | 639 | 4 | 143.9 | 38.9% | 44.4% | 16.7% |
| 10 | Vance McDonald | PIT | 73 | 50 | 610 | 4 | 135 | 37.0% | 45.2% | 17.8% |
| 11 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | 72 | 47 | 682 | 3 | 133.2 | 35.3% | 51.2% | 13.5% |
| 12 | Jimmy Graham | GB | 91 | 55 | 636 | 2 | 130.6 | 42.1% | 48.7% | 9.2% |
| 13 | Evan Engram | NYG | 64 | 45 | 577 | 3 | 124.3 | 36.2% | 46.4% | 14.5% |
| 14 | Jordan Reed | WAS | 77 | 54 | 558 | 2 | 121.8 | 44.3% | 45.8% | 9.9% |
| 15 | O.J. Howard | TB | 70 | 34 | 565 | 5 | 120.5 | 28.2% | 46.9% | 24.9% |
| 16 | Chris Herndon | NYJ | 56 | 39 | 502 | 4 | 113.2 | 34.5% | 44.3% | 21.2% |
| 17 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 50 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 31.7% | 51.5% | 16.8% |
| 18 | C.J. Uzomah | CIN | 62 | 43 | 439 | 3 | 104.9 | 41.0% | 41.8% | 17.2% |
| 19 | Cameron Brate | TB | 49 | 30 | 289 | 6 | 94.9 | 31.6% | 30.5% | 37.9% |
| 20 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 51 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 36.5% | 36.9% | 26.5% |
| 21 | Ben Watson | NO | 46 | 35 | 400 | 2 | 87 | 40.2% | 46.0% | 13.8% |
| 22 | Gerald Everett | LAR | 42 | 33 | 320 | 3 | 84.6 | 39.0% | 37.8% | 21.3% |
| 23 | Jesse James | PIT | 39 | 30 | 423 | 2 | 84.3 | 35.6% | 50.2% | 14.2% |
| 24 | Ian Thomas | CAR | 49 | 36 | 333 | 2 | 81.3 | 44.3% | 41.0% | 14.8% |
| 25 | Greg Olsen | CAR | 38 | 27 | 291 | 4 | 80.1 | 33.7% | 36.3% | 30.0% |
| 26 | Blake Jarwin | DAL | 36 | 27 | 307 | 3 | 75.7 | 35.7% | 40.6% | 23.8% |
| 27 | Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | 48 | 34 | 343 | 1 | 74.3 | 45.8% | 46.2% | 8.1% |
| 28 | Nick Vannett | SEA | 43 | 29 | 269 | 3 | 73.9 | 39.2% | 36.4% | 24.4% |
| 29 | Vernon Davis | WAS | 36 | 25 | 367 | 2 | 73.7 | 33.9% | 49.8% | 16.3% |
| 30 | Antonio Gates | LAC | 46 | 28 | 333 | 2 | 73.3 | 38.2% | 45.4% | 16.4% |
| 31 | Jeff Heuerman | DEN | 49 | 31 | 281 | 2 | 71.1 | 43.6% | 39.5% | 16.9% |
| 32 | Jordan Thomas | HOU | 37 | 20 | 215 | 4 | 65.5 | 30.5% | 32.8% | 36.6% |
| 33 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | 43 | 24 | 292 | 2 | 65.2 | 36.8% | 44.8% | 18.4% |
| 34 | Jonnu Smith | TEN | 35 | 20 | 258 | 3 | 63.8 | 31.3% | 40.4% | 28.2% |
| 35 | Jack Doyle | IND | 33 | 26 | 245 | 2 | 62.5 | 41.6% | 39.2% | 19.2% |
| 36 | Jason Croom | BUF | 33 | 22 | 259 | 1 | 59.9 | 36.7% | 43.2% | 10.0% |
| 37 | Rhett Ellison | NYG | 35 | 25 | 272 | 1 | 58.2 | 43.0% | 46.7% | 10.3% |
| 38 | Geoff Swaim | DAL | 32 | 26 | 242 | 1 | 56.2 | 46.3% | 43.1% | 10.7% |
| 39 | Matt LaCosse | DEN | 38 | 24 | 250 | 1 | 55 | 43.6% | 45.5% | 10.9% |
| 40 | Ryan Griffin | HOU | 36 | 24 | 305 | 0 | 54.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% | 0.0% |
It might surprise some to see Cameron Brate as the touchdown percentage leader (37.9%), but six of his 30 receptions went for touchdowns last season. A healthy O.J. Howard (24.9%) back in the mix — he missed six games last year — could see Brate’s touchdown equity fall in 2019. Eric Ebron (34.8%) is this year’s biggest candidate for touchdown regression after scoring 13 last year. Greg Olsen (30.0%), and Dallas Goedert (26.5%) make for great TE2 plays in bestball leagues where all you’re really hoping for is them to score a touchdown.
No surprise that after George Kittle set the record for most yards after the catch by a tight end in a single season (881), that he sports one of the highest percentage of fantasy points coming from receiving yards (53.6%). Mark Andrews (51.5%) was also a high performer in this category, becoming just the 11th tight end to rack up 500-plus receiving yards as a rookie in the past 20 years.
