SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Pitchers to Consider for deeper leagues
- Vincent Velasquez (RH/PHI) – Had somewhat of an audition to get his rotation spot earlier this week, and passed (just one hit allowed in 5 IP). Gets the Marlins again this week, then a tougher one @ ATL next week
- Logan Allen (LH/SDP) – Threw seven shutout innings in his MLB debut against the Brewers a few days ago and will stick in rotations for @ BAL this week. Worth a small bid in 15-teamers only.
- Ross Stripling (RH/LAD) – Takes Rich Hill’s rotation spot for the next month or so. Had success last year as a starter and has held his own in middle relief so far in 2019 (3.08/1.17, 23.4% K). Only concern for this week is that second starts in @ COL.
- Adbert Alzolay (RH/CHC) – A top-five Cubs’ prospect, Alzolay shoves fourseamers at 95 mph and looked sharp in his MLB debut earlier this week (4 IP – 5 K – 1 H – 2 BB). Gets the nod @ ATL and if that goes well, a possible two-start week prior to the break (@ PIT, @ CHW)
- Jesse Chavez (RH/TEX) – The 35-year-old veteran has been one of the Rangers’ most reliable relievers this season and officially joins the rotation as their 5th starter. Lines up for two (@ DET/@ TB) and got stretched out last start (went 5 IP, 57 pitches). Be wary of pitch count though and current xFIP (4.37).
- Daniel Mengden (RH/OAK) – The guy most likely stepping in for Montas. Gets the Angels on the road this week and though it could work out for him, it’s not the ideal spot since no one strikes out less in baseball.
- Adrian Houser (RH/MLW) – Just eight runs allowed in 31 innings and a 36:12 K:BB. Rewarded with the start on Wednesday against the Mariners.
Welcome to the weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
WEEK 14 PREVIEW
Another week that can best be characterized as calm after the storm following the big Yordan Alvarez bidding week. It’s a similar situation as the week after FAABapalooza that featured Riley, Mercado and Calhoun. Well, only one manager per league picked up the Astros’ smasher, which means there are folks who have FOMO and will be looking to tilt-spend some of that dough this week. Don’t do it. Unless a stud 95%-owned hitter or pitcher was dropped in your league and is worth some of your coin, it’s best to save that money for after the All-Star break. That means keeping your bids to single-digits over the next couple of weeks. If you just lost Frankie Montas and are chomping at the bit for the services of Zac Gallen, I can’t blame you. At this point, there are several factors in play to determine your bid amount, including how much FAAB you have left in relation to the rest of your league, your current rotation depth, and where you stand in the different pitching categories. Gallen won’t step in and do what Montas has been doing, but getting him onto your squad could save you precious ratio points when you’re jonesing for a two-step and somehow convince yourself that Jake Junis or Jordan Zimmermann is a good idea. For those fringe spots of yours over the next two weeks, take advantage of weak opposing starters/bullpens and spend that extra valuable time setting your pitchers. We just need to get through the next couple weeks to have a few days to regroup and recharge for a strong final 11 weeks.
TWO-START PITCHERS
TIER 1 – Locked in, all formats
- Gerrit Cole (RH/HOU) – v PIT, v SEA
- Zack Greinke (RH/ARI) – v LAD, @ SFG
- Patrick Corbin (LH/WAS) – @ MIA, @ DET
- Blake Snell (LH/TBR) – @ MIN, v TEX
- Robbie Ray (LH/ARI) – v LAD, @ SFG
- Clayton Kershaw (LH/LAD) – @ ARI, @ COL
- Lucas Giolito (RH/CHW) – @ BOS, v MIN
- Kyle Gibson (RH/MIN) – v TBR, @ CHW
Best matchups on paper among the studs here is for Corbin facing two of the league’s bottom-ten offenses against left-handed pitching. Snell is a touch concerning for us since his fastball velocity decreased in his last two starts, and that coincides with the only two times he has walked four batters this season. He has allowed six runs in two of his last four. Tough matchups on paper so if you’re worried and feel compelled to bench him this week, I won’t blame you, but I’ll be running him out there where I have him. Kershaw (@ COL) and Giolito (@ BOS) aren’t ideal matchups, but we’re running our studs out this week, hoping for the best.
TIER 2 – Locked in, most formats
- Trevor Richards (RH/MIA) – v WAS, v PHI
- Madison Bumgarner (LH/SFG) – v COL, v ARI
- Andrew Heaney (LH/LAA) – v CIN, v OAK
- Zach Eflin (RH/PHI) – v NYM, @ MIA
- Julio Teheran (RH/ATL) – @ CHC, @ NYM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (LH/BOS) – v CHW, v NYY
Richards has earned our trust of late, allowing more than one earned run just once in his last six starts and gets two at home. The schedule eases up for Bumgarner, Heaney and Eflin, though, Heaney’s two-step could be sneaky dangerous facing a red-hot Reds’ offense and an A’s squad that has arguably been the best against southpaws (league-leading .245 wOBA, second-lowest strikeout rate: 17%). E-Rod’s second start is in London and it’s much more likely these Yankees’ bats party it up overseas than E-Rod (total conjecture on my part there!).
TIER 3 – Start in 15-teamers, situational based on your ratios or wins/k’s in 12’s
- Jon Gray (RH/COL) – @ SFG, v LAD
- Jake Arrieta (RH/PHI) – v NYM, @ MIA
- C.C. Sabathia (LH/NYY) – v TOR, @ BOS
- Jon Lester (LH/CHC) – v ATL, @ CIN
- Chris Bassitt (RH/OAK) – @ STL, @ LAA
- Max Fried (LH/ATL) – @ CHC, @ NYM
- Steven Matz (LH/NYM) – @ PHI, v ATL
A set of fellas who are owned in almost all formats and all have warts we should be wary of here. Bassitt’s two starts may not look great on paper, facing teams with low strikeout rates against RHPs, but the Angels have a few lefties who could cause us to worry. Matz faces two of the best-hitting offenses against LHP so he’s one I’d consider giving a rest on the bench if ERA and WHIP are troubling categories for your squad. Matz, Bassitt and Fried are all available in over 50% of Yahoo! leagues.
TIER 4 – Frisky and Risky
*ownership listed in 15-team NFBC OC’s for biddable guys
- Zach Davies (RH/MLW) – v SEA, v PIT
- Drew Pomeranz (LH/SFG, 25%) – v COL, v ARI
- Adam Plutko (RH/CLE, 25%) – v KC, @ BAL
- Brad Keller (RH/KCR) – @ CLE, @ TOR
- Jordan Zimmermann (RH/DET) – v TEX, v WAS
Davies continues to maintain a walk rate (seven percent) right around his career average but with an uber low k rate (15 percent) and swinging-strike rate (7.6 percent). Moreover, we must have concerns about the large discrepancy between his ERA (3.06) and xFIP (5.04). The ERA has been correcting over his last few starts (5.66 in June; .402 wOBA). Plutko has held his own since joining the rotation (2 ER each with 15:1 K:BB @ TEX, @ DET, v NYY) so with two subpar offenses on deck, he is certainly streamable. Both he and Pomeranz are available on 75% of Main Event 15-teamers. If you’re the gambling type, then Pomeranz could work as a streamer and that’s only because both starts are at home. His ERA is twice as good there (4.21 home, 9.76 road) but still dicey and between COL and ARI’s offenses – both of which crush lefties – it could be a bumpy road.
TIER 5 – Tread carefully or Avoid outright
*ownership listed in 15-team NFBC Main Events for biddable guys
- Marco Gonzales (LH/SEA) – @ MLW, @ HOU
- Aaron Sanchez (RH/TOR) – @ NYY, v KCR
- Trevor Williams (RH/PIT) – @ HOU, @ MLW
- Jeff Hoffman (RH/COL) – @ SFG, v LAD
Keep an eye out for rotation shifts and tweaks between now and Monday. Both Jack Flaherty and Dylan Bundy pitch Tuesday, but their teams play just five games this week. If they’re kept on regular rest, both will end up with two-start weeks and pitch Sunday. Likely the case for both guys, in which case Flaherty joins Tier 1 above and Bundy in Tier 2. Bundy is just 40% owned in 12-team OC’s, and he’s someone I’d consider streaming if I knew he’d toe the rubber twice.
SINGLE-STARTERS / STASHES
- Zac Gallen (RH/MIA) – The most exciting prospect in the Marlins’ minor league system, Gallen looked sharp in his MLB debut last week against the Cardinals (5 IP – 5 H – 1 ER – 2 BB – 6 K) after dominating Triple-A over 14 starts (112:17 K:BB, just 18 ER allowed in 91.1 IP). Gallen will be the prize of this FAAB weekend for folks who could use a starter (anyone and everyone can always use more starting pitchers). He has a four-pitch arsenal that includes a four-seamer that tops out at 94 mph and a high-80’s cutter that he commands well. Expect Gallen to stick with this rotation for the long haul even when Caleb Smith returns. The Marlins will have a tough decision to make when he does return, bumping one of Elieser Hernandez or Jordan Yamamoto from the rotation (both of whom have pitched well since getting their respective call-ups). Gallen would start against the Nationals at home this week, then hit two on the road (@ WAS, @ ATL).
- Tyler Mahle (RH/CIN, 66% in 12-teamers) – Though his 4.17 ERA doesn’t portend the prettiest of pictures, Mahle has actually been quite solid this season. He has cut his walk rate nearly in half (from 10.5% last year to 5.6% this year) and has bumped his strikeout rate up a few ticks to nearly 25 percent. Mahle got smashed by lefties last season, and though he struggles against them (.362 wOBA vs LHP, .271 vs RHP), he’s made slight gains in comparison to his rookie season. He has allowed more than one dinger just twice in 14 starts and has been quite solid at Great American, maintaining a 2.96 ERA there. The next couple of weeks for him aren’t ideal (@ LAA, then home vs MLW / CLE), but in consideration of his improvement and upside, he’s someone we could look to trusting in the second half of the season.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: ATL, NYM, PHI, CHC, ARI, COL, LAD, SFG
Teams with 5 games: CIN, STL SDP, BAL, BOS, NYY
- No American League teams with seven games this week
- Yankees/Red Sox are playing a two-game series on Saturday/Sunday in London
RENTALS
- Dodgers – Four games at Coors Field, but not many hitters available in most formats. In 12-teamers, Chris Taylor and Austin Barnes are available in over 50% of OC leagues. If you want to stream a longshot, try 25th-round draft pick Kyle Garlick, who has a couple of homers this week and a cool freaking name.
- Rockies – Just four games at home and a tough draw against the NL’s best rotation and bullpen, but with Story sidelined, Brendan Rodgers (44% owned in 12’s) is streamable now and through the All-Star break.
- Indians – Another solid week of matchups for #ClevelandRocks facing two of the majors’ worst staffs/bullpens (Royals, Orioles). The three with the O’s are in Camden, which is a nice park for hitters. If you don’t own Roberto Perez and he’s available in your league, what are you waiting for? He has the third-highest ISO (.216) against RHP on the team. Since they likely face six RHP, someone like Jason Kipnis is streamable in 15-teamers. It’s a good week to drop or at least bench lefty-only crusher, Jordan Luplow.
- Rays – It’s not the perfect schedule, as they’ll take on Matthew Boyd when facing the Tigers in a three-game series and their series with the Rangers is at home. But five RHPs are on the projected schedule, which means we can stream Ji-Man Choi in 12-teamers and add some Joey Wendle in 15-teamers. Choi is just available in 97% of OC 12’s and 20% of Main Events.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Willians Astudillo (RH/MIN), Chris Iannetta (RH/COL)
Astudillo is back in the majors after a brief stint of crushing in Triple-A and is playing third base while Marwin Gonzalez is sidelined. Just 46% owned after more than half his owners dropped him in the Main Event. Pick him back up! Iannetta is simply a Coors streamer with Tony Wolters likely getting some days off with a few LHPs coming up.
Corner Infielders – Matt Adams (LH/WAS), Ronald Guzman (LH/TEX)
We’re light in deep-league options at the corner spots. Cheslor Cuthbert has been fantastic the last two weeks, but that everyday playing time just got lighter with Hunter Dozier back. Adams and Guzman are power-hitting lefty bats who could fill in and hit a couple this week if you need a fill-in, though, both may easily sit in at least two of their team’s starts with southpaw starters upcoming. I’d prioritize Adams far head of Guzman.
Middle Infielders – Jason Kipnis (LH/CLE), Luis Rengifo 2B/SS (RH/LAA), Joey Wendle 2B/3B (LH/TBR), Brock Holt 2B/SS (LH/BOS)
Kipnis is very streaky and a shell of his former self, but he took advantage of a nice hitting schedule last week (.370, 3 HR, 11 RBI) and we could certainly run him out there for another week. Rengifo is playing every day and appears to be improving as well as getting comfortable in the big leagues on a daily basis. Wendle may not play every day, but he was one of the AL ROY candidates last year and could help you in batting average. Holt plays against righties in the middle of the Red Sox’ lineup and is hitting .348 with a .393 OBP over the past week.
Outfielders – Tyler Naquin (LH/CLE), Brandon Dixon OF/1B (RH/DET), Roman Quinn (SW/PHI), Matt Beaty (LH/LAD) or Kyle Garlick (RH/LAD)
A very light list of outfielders and chances are your sixth best guy in 15-teamers trumps anyone in this group. Naquin is viable as a rental this week with six RHPs on the schedule, while Dixon has been one of the only Tigers hitting consistently over this past month. Quinn hasn’t played much since coming off IL but he’s one of the only legitimate stolen base guys available. Beaty or Garlick are listed simply because of the Coors series, but either could be optioned at any moment or not make more than one start. For the truly desperate.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Catchers – Roberto Perez (RH/CLE), Austin Barnes (RH/LAD)
Corner Infielders – Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR), Colin Moran (LH/PIT), Christian Walker (RH/ARI – dropped on a bunch of teams and available on 20% of OCs – hitting the ball hard and has been unlucky – pick him back up)
Middle Infielders – Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF (RH/LAD), Brendan Rodgers (RH/COL), Andrelton Simmons (RH/LAA – back from IL soon)
Outfielders – Corey Dickerson (LH/PIT), Jake Bauers OF/1B (LH/CLE), Dwight Smith Jr (LH/BAL), Teoscar Hernandez (RH/TOR)
